Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on May 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x765bbb449b40e0b1f4d80a72ff5ec748ace5eb0842df7448927b9d695c711f65
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,864
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,554
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,864 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbf66…472abacked Yes | 6c | 432.56$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ca3…8109backed Yes | 4c | 408$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 317 | 2.5%8 W · 309 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x879d…b501backed Yes | 28c | 280.4$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.4 | 605 | 19.7%119 W · 486 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 30c | 276.67$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.06 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfca…645abacked Yes | 29c | 261.08$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.74 | 140 | 25.7%36 W · 104 L | -9.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 78c | 187.5$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.55 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 75c | 175.82$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.17 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f19…e819backed Yes | 29c | 175.1$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 529 | 35.7%189 W · 340 L | +26.7wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 29c | 173.33$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.75 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 9c | 146.44$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.92 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b42…405abacked Yes | 23c | 129.35$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.11 | 168 | 33.9%57 W · 111 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 72c | 116.84$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.24 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 75c | 114.57$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.15 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4819…0371backed Yes | 29c | 112.43$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.23 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 72c | 107.58$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.12 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x242e…d2f9backed Yes | 16c | 104.46$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 80c | 103.32$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.93 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0e…8337backed Yes | 24c | 103.31$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed Yes | 29c | 102.6$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.04 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a17…d13ebacked Yes | 23c | 102.4$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.28 | 106 | 33%35 W · 71 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa36b…1d89backed Yes | 37c | 97.73$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 555 | 38.4%213 W · 342 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 75c | 94.55$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.58 | 767 | 55.4%425 W · 342 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 17c | 92.53$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.73 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfe…aef2backed Yes | 33c | 91.29$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 102 | 28.4%29 W · 73 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 25c | 90.64$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa8c…9169backed No | 74c | 90.5$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.68 | 402 | 65.9%265 W · 137 L | +31.7wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5b7c…f811backed No | 74c | 81.58$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.89 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 29c | 80.01$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.98 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 68c | 76.63$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.15 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 75c | 75$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.64 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x570c…91c5backed No | 74c | 73.28$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.39 | 711 | 59.2%421 W · 290 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x284e…674ebacked Yes | 27c | 73$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.87 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 72c | 71.61$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.9 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe368…3b47backed Yes | 15c | 68.64$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x336e…bcc3backed No | 68c | 68.33$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.04 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | +7.7wins | +0.16per pick | 31cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa7a1…a85ebacked Yes | 23c | 66.64$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.31 | 54 | 68.5%37 W · 17 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 79c | 65.68$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.98 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Yes | 19c | 65.24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.58 | 769 | 24.3%187 W · 582 L | -16.3wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0cf…ae32backed Yes | 27c | 63.68$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 80 | 61.3%49 W · 31 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 74c | 63.2$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.48 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 74c | 60$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.39 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 22c | 57$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.55 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…2c6bbacked Yes | 28c | 52.01$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.81 | 188 | 14.4%27 W · 161 L | -14.7wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8d…038bbacked No | 64c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 294 | 69.7%205 W · 89 L | +26.7wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 74c | 47.29$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.08 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x547b…d0babacked No | 73c | 46.6$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.67 | 106 | 53.8%57 W · 49 L | +12.0wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x531b…da26backed Yes | 32c | 44.9$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.36 | 127 | 33.1%42 W · 85 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 71c | 43.55$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.42 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebf0…2330backed No | 73c | 41.33$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.16 | 410 | 51.7%212 W · 198 L | +24.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x13e0…82f9backed No | 74c | 35.2$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.25 | 305 | 65.9%201 W · 104 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…c49ebacked No | 73c | 33.98$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.18 | 1,110 | 65%722 W · 388 L | +38.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 74c | 32$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.32 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 74c | 31.05$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.07 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 65c | 29.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed No | 70c | 25.83$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.75 | 503 | 73.2%368 W · 135 L | +25.3wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 70c | 21.07$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.37 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x837c…d774backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 45 | 62.2%28 W · 17 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 73c | 18.82$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.08 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8b1…00b2backed No | 78c | 18.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.12 | 18 | 77.8%14 W · 4 L | +2.3wins | +0.13per pick | 65cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 79c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.84 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 78c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.34 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on May 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on May 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on May 25?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on May 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on May 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C or higher on May 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.