Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on May 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9952e847b7e1fafba7d325f261f1b15a3e398fa4c90181f1c14c29577b1f2929
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,632
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,454
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,632 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed No | 6c | 522.51$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.71 | 769 | 24.3%187 W · 582 L | -16.3wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 10c | 419.35$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.03 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7084…7884backed No | 41c | 325.64$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.1 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 27c | 307$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.25 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 44c | 195.83$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.28 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 34c | 187.5$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.01 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa36b…1d89backed Yes | 47c | 165.2$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.2 | 555 | 38.4%213 W · 342 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed Yes | 65c | 150$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.41 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 39c | 146.13$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.32 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c48…6b72backed Yes | 69c | 143.61$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.41 | 452 | 38.5%174 W · 278 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked No | 45c | 132.38$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.05 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 37c | 131.88$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.01 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 35c | 127.97$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.23 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 33c | 119.64$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.47 | 767 | 55.4%425 W · 342 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 26c | 113.63$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.47 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xb90b…ca12backed Yes | 59c | 102.15$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.15 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd628…9356backed Yes | 44c | 101.63$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.11 | 133 | 44.4%59 W · 74 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 40c | 101$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.3 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfecc…77dabacked Yes | 49c | 99.99$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 404 | 38.1%154 W · 250 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked Yes | 55c | 97$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.24 | 575 | 45%259 W · 316 L | +26.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b42…405abacked Yes | 63c | 94.91$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.14 | 168 | 33.9%57 W · 111 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed No | 17c | 92.63$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.56 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 47c | 90.09$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.39 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebf0…2330backed Yes | 74c | 88.85$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.3 | 410 | 51.7%212 W · 198 L | +24.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x284e…674ebacked Yes | 65c | 85$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.09 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe47e…f8abbacked No | 36c | 79.78$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.61 | 240 | 66.3%159 W · 81 L | +13.5wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 31c | 77.26$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.64 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaba7…8ff1backed Yes | 48c | 73.27$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.37 | 195 | 41.5%81 W · 114 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…517ebacked Yes | 48c | 70$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.34 | 1,643 | 27.8%456 W · 1,187 L | +117.6wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +33%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 42c | 68.34$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.5 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 53c | 64.69$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.98 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 54c | 60$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.6 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 38c | 60$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x194b…e572backed No | 46c | 60$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.46 | 193 | 53.9%104 W · 89 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x547b…d0babacked Yes | 73c | 59.56$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.84 | 106 | 53.8%57 W · 49 L | +12.0wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe54c…2c69backed Yes | 47c | 59.09$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.04 | 255 | 60.8%155 W · 100 L | +16.2wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +14%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x336e…bcc3backed Yes | 64c | 52.72$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.81 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | +7.7wins | +0.16per pick | 31cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 56c | 52.38$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.05 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97ab…a19fbacked Yes | 52c | 50.74$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.36 | 299 | 53.8%161 W · 138 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 47c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5eaa…3561backed Yes | 44c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 106 | 36.8%39 W · 67 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cc0…1912backed Yes | 49c | 49.99$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 161 | 16.1%26 W · 135 L | -7.1wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 30c | 49.9$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.97 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0cf…ae32backed No | 37c | 47.87$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.93 | 80 | 61.3%49 W · 31 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13e0…82f9backed No | 38c | 45.21$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 305 | 65.9%201 W · 104 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43b0…1402backed Yes | 48c | 45$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.45 | 163 | 39.9%65 W · 98 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2451…09fabacked Yes | 58c | 44.92$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.92 | 221 | 25.3%56 W · 165 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1600…9236backed Yes | 44c | 44.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 354 | 32.5%115 W · 239 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c1b…4b83backed No | 56c | 44.64$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | -2.3wins | -0.09per pick | 60cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 36c | 42.73$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.35 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 47c | 40.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.3 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6c…1e6dbacked Yes | 37c | 40.32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.37 | 327 | 38.2%125 W · 202 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a8…9f68backed Yes | 43c | 40$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.7 | 346 | 33.8%117 W · 229 L | +17.3wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 52c | 36.05$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.83 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 54c | 36$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.44 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 50c | 35.98$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.05 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ce…4bc5backed No | 55c | 35$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.25 | 33 | 63.6%21 W · 12 L | +4.2wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb4de…f9c4backed No | 53c | 33.38$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.82 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | -6.1wins | -0.14per pick | 61cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 46c | 32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.61 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd2a…0bf0backed Yes | 53c | 31.96$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.94 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.22per pick | 56cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 65c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.44 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked No | 35c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 53c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc857…7c22backed No | 53c | 25.83$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 62 | 62.9%39 W · 23 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 68cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 53c | 25.76$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.53 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 59c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x48b5…3300backed Yes | 45c | 24.67$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.57 | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 62c | 24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.08 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x242e…d2f9backed Yes | 63c | 23.69$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.69 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed Yes | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x05bc…008abacked No | 58c | 19.07$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.99 | 97 | 58.8%57 W · 40 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on May 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on May 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on May 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on May 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on May 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C or higher on May 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.