Fifa International · resolved market
United States to win the second half?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x767993c201e5513ff3cdb898983f2b971e9f85f5aa73093a9a71d765af86e6bd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,266
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,226
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,266 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 9c | 1,669$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.04 | 8,614 | 29.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L | -166.6wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Yes | 41c | 748.43$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.8 | 2,439 | 29%707 W · 1,732 L | -65.3wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -21%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9709…52abbacked No | 31c | 606.37$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$416.76 | 192 | 47.9%92 W · 100 L | +13.2wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +38%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 58c | 559.24$323 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.19 | 376 | 44.9%169 W · 207 L | -7.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x045c…3977backed Yes | 42c | 533.74$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.49 | 54 | 22.2%12 W · 42 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda31…6e6ebacked Yes | 70c | 380.83$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.58 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 34cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed No | 59c | 360.52$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.73 | 2,380 | 53.3%1,269 W · 1,111 L | +76.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e1…99dbbacked No | 67c | 266.51$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.62 | 580 | 49.1%285 W · 295 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 59c | 262.15$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.36 | 1,135 | 40.2%456 W · 679 L | +5.2wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed No | 62c | 251.32$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.63 | 3,731 | 51.8%1,931 W · 1,800 L | +55.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3109…4ef4backed Yes | 41c | 243.86$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 120 | 25.8%31 W · 89 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f17…b55dbacked No | 36c | 223.66$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143 | 121 | 45.5%55 W · 66 L | +9.0wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked No | 58c | 214.67$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.16 | 2,411 | 53%1,278 W · 1,133 L | +75.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf647…0ccbbacked No | 37c | 206.5$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.2 | 130 | 61.5%80 W · 50 L | +11.1wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +100.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed No | 51c | 165$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.19 | 431 | 45.2%195 W · 236 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf51e…7be7backed Yes | 64c | 155.38$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 8c | 142.66$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.93 | 802 | 25.7%206 W · 596 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b6…2facbacked Yes | 63c | 119.99$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.59 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbaf3…8f89backed Yes | 43c | 116.58$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.04 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +2.6wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +39%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2c47…fc6dbacked No | 39c | 108.61$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.12 | 129 | 54.3%70 W · 59 L | +14.2wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +89.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed No | 57c | 100$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 2,805 | 55.1%1,546 W · 1,259 L | +70.4wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x689a…92f1backed Yes | 46c | 80$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d95…ed84backed Yes | 63c | 79.37$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 47 | 61.7%29 W · 18 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +12%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec3c…843abacked Yes | 62c | 56.45$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x81ed…59f5backed Yes | 63c | 50$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 608 | 21.9%133 W · 475 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x332d…193fbacked Yes | 43c | 46.7$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x181d…bb6dbacked Yes | 64c | 41.64$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.65 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87fe…3cbebacked No | 57c | 38.68$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.63 | 72 | 47.2%34 W · 38 L | +4.1wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdaec…eaafbacked Yes | 39c | 38.46$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | -4.9wins | -0.14per pick | 44cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed No | 58c | 29.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 373 | 48.3%180 W · 193 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bad…4e22backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +86.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8a9…63a1backed Yes | 50c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 65 | 56.9%37 W · 28 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked No | 58c | 22.29$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.27 | 2,231 | 49.2%1,098 W · 1,133 L | -21.2wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 61c | 22.24$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.67 | 656 | 51.7%339 W · 317 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf514…7aeabacked Yes | 70c | 21.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 64cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb078…289ebacked Yes | 74c | 20.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 207 | 56%116 W · 91 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xace9…8a64backed Yes | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.8wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- United States to win the second half?this page
- Paraguay to win the second half?No won
- United States vs. Paraguay: Second half draw?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.