Tennis · resolved market
Set 2 Winner: Kostyuk vs Paolini
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x767b9ad47d4f9ce2fc4265e2a315b2297db5173d743e833d23d61eaf34050951
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Kostyukof Kostyuk, Paolini
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,955
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,269
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,955 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 13 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Paolini | 24c | 2,680$654 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$654.28 | 4,921 | 38.7%1,905 W · 3,016 L | -20.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50b9…4467backed Kostyuk | 76c | 2,337$1,777 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$559.63 | 380 | 33.9%129 W · 251 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8492…f17cbacked Kostyuk | 75c | 1,299$973 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$325.97 | 632 | 52.8%334 W · 298 L | -9.6wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21f4…81a6backed Paolini | 5c | 599.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 178 | 10.7%19 W · 159 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d0…a1c5backed Paolini | 34c | 467.9$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 1,566 | 40%627 W · 939 L | -32.0wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ddd…7cdbbacked Paolini | 36c | 280.61$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 57 | 38.6%22 W · 35 L | -4.1wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdaa2…f1f1backed Paolini | 6c | 266.67$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 40 | 12.5%5 W · 35 L | -6.1wins | -0.15per pick | 28cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Paolini | 23c | 112$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.76 | 5,416 | 48.6%2,633 W · 2,783 L | +14.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Paolini | 21c | 83.66$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.68 | 6,449 | 46.3%2,987 W · 3,462 L | -42.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Kostyuk | 71c | 68.97$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 3,677 | 54.8%2,015 W · 1,662 L | +107.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65a7…a216backed Kostyuk | 74c | 62.86$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.34 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -2.6wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x81ae…4440backed Kostyuk | 67c | 35.4$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.68 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26c2…0cdfbacked Kostyuk | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 743 | 46.3%344 W · 399 L | -28.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set 2 Winner: Kostyuk vs Paolinithis page
- Kostyuk vs. Paolini: Match O/U 21.5Under won
- Marta Kostyuk vs. Jasmine Paolini: Total Sets O/U 2.5Under 2.5 won
- Set 1 Winner: Kostyuk vs PaoliniKostyuk won
- Set Handicap: Kostyuk (-1.5) vs Paolini (+1.5)Kostyuk won
- Wimbledon WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Jasmine PaoliniMarta Kostyuk won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.