Tennis · resolved market
Set Handicap: Kostyuk (-1.5) vs Paolini (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb3a56bc13b7fb37164a56a35d2557fa207add57d391bc1be0644671c216bf53c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Kostyukof Kostyuk, Paolini
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,763
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,647
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,763 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6401…f240backed Paolini | 16c | 2,311$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$369.69 | 263 | 55.1%145 W · 118 L | +36.9wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x99f0…9495backed Kostyuk | 43c | 1,969$855 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,114.56 | 2,174 | 36.9%802 W · 1,372 L | +39.5wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e04…564dbacked Paolini | 54c | 1,692$921 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$920.95 | 172 | 44.8%77 W · 95 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d8a…5201backed Kostyuk | 46c | 1,108$510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$598.31 | 1,421 | 28.6%407 W · 1,014 L | +4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e3c…6db6backed Paolini | 57c | 852.1$486 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$485.89 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.2wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x479b…cdb1backed Paolini | 26c | 600$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -3.3wins | -0.14per pick | 35cpaid | -58.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7547…d158backed Kostyuk | 44c | 403.57$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226 | 7,049 | 39.7%2,795 W · 4,254 L | -20.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50ca…bfddbacked Paolini | 56c | 400$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224 | 603 | 42%253 W · 350 L | +11.1wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa313…eb44backed Paolini | 56c | 377.99$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.66 | 103 | 48.5%50 W · 53 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ce7…3150backed Paolini | 57c | 369.12$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.15 | 391 | 49.1%192 W · 199 L | +14.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9644…d03bbacked Paolini | 53c | 354$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.48 | 370 | 47%174 W · 196 L | -18.2wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f1d…2fb6backed Kostyuk | 43c | 339.68$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.62 | 1,556 | 42.4%660 W · 896 L | +20.6wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x473f…9892backed Kostyuk | 45c | 333.96$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.68 | 40 | 55%22 W · 18 L | +3.1wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…54dbbacked Paolini | 29c | 315.66$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.25 | 2,417 | 50.7%1,226 W · 1,191 L | +78.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd46e…d10dbacked Kostyuk | 45c | 217.78$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.78 | 589 | 31.1%183 W · 406 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48ee…0db4backed Kostyuk | 46c | 217.39$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.39 | 545 | 47.9%261 W · 284 L | +11.6wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5323…326abacked Kostyuk | 46c | 217.39$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.39 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Paolini | 9c | 198.13$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.96 | 9,286 | 44.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L | -245.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb42…6e09backed Paolini | 26c | 192.31$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 139 | 48.2%67 W · 72 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked Paolini | 27c | 185.19$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3,424 | 39.1%1,338 W · 2,086 L | -12.3wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb142…c4bdbacked Paolini | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -5.0wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Paolini | 55c | 176.51$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.08 | 2,854 | 39.5%1,126 W · 1,728 L | -83.5wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91df…fd49backed Paolini | 57c | 175.44$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 47 | 63.8%30 W · 17 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 69cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x31e7…fe2abacked Paolini | 25c | 140$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 1,356 | 38.3%520 W · 836 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7bb…2753backed Paolini | 57c | 114.04$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 249 | 51.4%128 W · 121 L | -11.3wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b75…6679backed Kostyuk | 44c | 113.64$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.64 | 123 | 50.4%62 W · 61 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Paolini | 55c | 113.41$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.34 | 4,241 | 52.6%2,232 W · 2,009 L | +65.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb77…1c78backed Paolini | 25c | 108$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 2,151 | 37.3%802 W · 1,349 L | -27.2wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30dc…768ebacked Paolini | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 115 | 64.3%74 W · 41 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x041b…d3ebbacked Kostyuk | 44c | 88.11$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.34 | 157 | 52.2%82 W · 75 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0fd9…039bbacked Paolini | 27c | 85.74$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 1,008 | 38.3%386 W · 622 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Kostyuk | 45c | 78.7$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.25 | 3,874 | 45.4%1,758 W · 2,116 L | -39.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4f9…58e9backed Paolini | 57c | 69.47$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.6 | 59 | 59.3%35 W · 24 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a4d…f57ebacked Kostyuk | 74c | 54.05$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.05 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ab…9db6backed Kostyuk | 46c | 52.34$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.26 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x085a…58a8backed Paolini | 57c | 50.51$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.79 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ae…f36bbacked Kostyuk | 44c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 389 | 47.3%184 W · 205 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Kostyuk | 44c | 48.18$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.8 | 1,588 | 47%746 W · 842 L | -24.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7285…3273backed Paolini | 54c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 84 | 50%42 W · 42 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ba8…90a3backed Paolini | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 488 | 52.9%258 W · 230 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x305b…cd21backed Paolini | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 550 | 59.1%325 W · 225 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x341d…2995backed Paolini | 56c | 33.97$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 311 | 61.1%190 W · 121 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8daa…ca69backed Paolini | 55c | 27.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -3.0wins | -0.23per pick | 54cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5a31…80d4backed Kostyuk | 44c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +2.5wins | +0.17per pick | 37cpaid | +46%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe346…3071backed Paolini | 57c | 21.05$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe629…d920backed Kostyuk | 76c | 15.2$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.65 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set Handicap: Kostyuk (-1.5) vs Paolini (+1.5)this page
- Kostyuk vs. Paolini: Match O/U 21.5Under won
- Marta Kostyuk vs. Jasmine Paolini: Total Sets O/U 2.5Under 2.5 won
- Set 1 Winner: Kostyuk vs PaoliniKostyuk won
- Set 2 Winner: Kostyuk vs PaoliniKostyuk won
- Wimbledon WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Jasmine PaoliniMarta Kostyuk won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.