Tennis · resolved market
Kostyuk vs. Paolini: Match O/U 21.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x03102eacac51182e138ccd224113289aa69485f44ce02aa965060b1a87adcd31
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,964
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,108
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,964 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8a26…937ebacked Over | 53c | 5,665$3,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,000 | 459 | 57.5%264 W · 195 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Under | 47c | 2,750$1,292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,457.28 | 4,076 | 39.7%1,620 W · 2,456 L | +93.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x559b…4959backed Under | 47c | 2,612$1,228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,384.28 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd8e…f023backed Over | 58c | 1,500$870 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$869.98 | 572 | 49.5%283 W · 289 L | -32.8wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 42c | 920.45$387 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$533.86 | 9,286 | 44.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L | -245.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c4…395dbacked Under | 50c | 714$357 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$357 | 1,031 | 50.3%519 W · 512 L | +40.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeef6…cd4cbacked Over | 50c | 562.06$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.03 | 56 | 48.2%27 W · 29 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26fb…67b8backed Under | 61c | 202.36$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.92 | 651 | 57.1%372 W · 279 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Over | 39c | 202.36$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.92 | 4,765 | 47%2,238 W · 2,527 L | -82.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85c3…700cbacked Under | 42c | 162.86$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.46 | 1,688 | 45.4%766 W · 922 L | -10.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Over | 9c | 121.15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.13 | 1,379 | 16.4%226 W · 1,153 L | -108.5wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…92f0backed Under | 42c | 119.05$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.05 | 3,220 | 40.5%1,305 W · 1,915 L | +28.3wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked Under | 42c | 119.05$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.05 | 3,424 | 39.1%1,338 W · 2,086 L | -12.3wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x169c…ea8bbacked Over | 50c | 103$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.5 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdcc0…6872backed Under | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 156 | 46.8%73 W · 83 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…2bc3backed Under | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 361 | 61.8%223 W · 138 L | +41.3wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +25%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x983f…eb31backed Over | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -3.0wins | -0.25per pick | 58cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6b57…263ebacked Over | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -3.3wins | -0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9644…d03bbacked Under | 48c | 89.17$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.37 | 370 | 47%174 W · 196 L | -18.2wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7547…d158backed Over | 49c | 86.22$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.25 | 7,049 | 39.7%2,795 W · 4,254 L | -20.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x31e7…fe2abacked Under | 42c | 83.33$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.33 | 1,356 | 38.3%520 W · 836 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e28…f043backed Over | 50c | 80$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbcd6…f3c8backed Under | 49c | 78.48$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.02 | 472 | 51.3%242 W · 230 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Under | 48c | 75$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 3,874 | 45.4%1,758 W · 2,116 L | -39.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3404…10d2backed Under | 50c | 64.96$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.48 | 482 | 45.6%220 W · 262 L | -11.1wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb77…1c78backed Under | 42c | 64.29$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.29 | 2,151 | 37.3%802 W · 1,349 L | -27.2wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb07…e2ccbacked Under | 47c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 264 | 41.7%110 W · 154 L | +9.4wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb93…94cfbacked Under | 69c | 49.7$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.16 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e28…07c3backed Over | 51c | 48.53$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 124 | 64.5%80 W · 44 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 48c | 39.23$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 7,139 | 49.7%3,548 W · 3,591 L | +109.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x522f…1164backed Under | 48c | 36$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.72 | 304 | 36.8%112 W · 192 L | -19.6wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xda9d…8ed3backed Under | 42c | 30.95$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.95 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b75…409ebacked Under | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 63 | 52.4%33 W · 30 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…1c75backed Under | 47c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.9 | 1,240 | 41.2%511 W · 729 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ae…f36bbacked Under | 49c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 389 | 47.3%184 W · 205 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x514b…d2d8backed Over | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe1d…77cfbacked Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -3.0wins | -0.25per pick | 59cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf67c…218abacked Over | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | +6.6wins | +0.16per pick | 35cpaid | +43.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Kostyuk vs. Paolini: Match O/U 21.5this page
- Marta Kostyuk vs. Jasmine Paolini: Total Sets O/U 2.5Under 2.5 won
- Set 1 Winner: Kostyuk vs PaoliniKostyuk won
- Set 2 Winner: Kostyuk vs PaoliniKostyuk won
- Set Handicap: Kostyuk (-1.5) vs Paolini (+1.5)Kostyuk won
- Wimbledon WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Jasmine PaoliniMarta Kostyuk won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.