CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: Alliance vs OG - Map 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x76b9a1dc622e690c5d38cf8a6f9e9fff626228967cdb24d65d6b5198ae299846
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Allianceof Alliance, OG
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,702
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,788
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,702 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Alliance | 41c | 3,676$1,513 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,163.1 | 3,096 | 48.5%1,501 W · 1,595 L | +135.0wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa9…febebacked OG | 56c | 1,664$937 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$936.92 | 1,040 | 44%458 W · 582 L | -22.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2905…6255backed OG | 58c | 1,585$918 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$918.24 | 49 | 24.5%12 W · 37 L | -7.9wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe203…1b53backed Alliance | 37c | 600$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$378 | 353 | 44.8%158 W · 195 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb713…9126backed Alliance | 51c | 505$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.68 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 46cpaid | +46.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19b6…ad8ebacked OG | 49c | 493.46$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.8 | 195 | 40%78 W · 117 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2930…4cf8backed OG | 19c | 336$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.84 | 157 | 43.3%68 W · 89 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ee1…f616backed Alliance | 53c | 300$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141 | 133 | 32.3%43 W · 90 L | -8.4wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x558c…ca77backed OG | 57c | 225.4$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.93 | 182 | 65.9%120 W · 62 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc1e0…70f8backed Alliance | 45c | 200$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110 | 33 | 90.9%30 W · 3 L | +6.9wins | +0.21per pick | 70cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed OG | 74c | 157$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.45 | 589 | 61.3%361 W · 228 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed OG | 69c | 111.99$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.04 | 1,378 | 45.2%623 W · 755 L | +17.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab3d…9776backed Alliance | 35c | 100$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a06…21b8backed Alliance | 50c | 98$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5c9…8368backed OG | 79c | 72.87$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.57 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad72…4f5ebacked OG | 58c | 60$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.07 | 245 | 38.4%94 W · 151 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae35…5dd3backed OG | 20c | 60$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 239 | 40.2%96 W · 143 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabfc…173ebacked OG | 58c | 40$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -2.4wins | -0.20per pick | 62cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed OG | 37c | 36$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.14 | 1,304 | 26.5%345 W · 959 L | -89.4wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x74d0…f39ebacked Alliance | 57c | 31.33$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.36 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c2…b14dbacked OG | 79c | 17.02$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.37 | 596 | 47.3%282 W · 314 L | +8.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked OG | 80c | 13$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 2,776 | 37.4%1,038 W · 1,738 L | -140.2wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Counter-Strike: Alliance vs OG - Map 1 Winnerthis page
- Counter-Strike: Alliance vs OG (BO3) - IEM Atlanta: Global Qualifier PlayoffsAlliance won
- Counter-Strike: Alliance vs OG - Map 2 WinnerOG won
- Map Handicap: OG (-1.5) vs Alliance (+1.5)Alliance won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.