CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: Alliance vs OG - Map 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb7f35209ac1547a047b8e9168441590f319e4eca6ffcc7a844fb87606e33d455
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- OGof Alliance, OG
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,985
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,954
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,985 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x507e…beaebacked OG | 48c | 10,271$4,901 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,370.47 | 3,096 | 48.5%1,501 W · 1,595 L | +135.0wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x26f8…3452backed Alliance | 60c | 7,611$4,566 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,566.42 | 202 | 49.5%100 W · 102 L | -9.9wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…8fe8backed Alliance | 49c | 3,034$1,492 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,492.09 | 172 | 49.4%85 W · 87 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ae8…c2a8backed Alliance | 50c | 1,595$803 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$803.07 | 248 | 46.8%116 W · 132 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4667…cab0backed Alliance | 52c | 999.98$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$519.99 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -2.3wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4d84…21b1backed OG | 42c | 883.3$367 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$516.4 | 273 | 48.4%132 W · 141 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa9…febebacked OG | 72c | 680$488 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.41 | 1,040 | 44%458 W · 582 L | -22.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd93b…cd48backed Alliance | 18c | 599.99$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 132 | 46.2%61 W · 71 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf802…d91dbacked OG | 48c | 583.33$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$303.33 | 227 | 54.2%123 W · 104 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed OG | 52c | 424.04$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.47 | 1,378 | 45.2%623 W · 755 L | +17.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9942…5c84backed Alliance | 52c | 384.62$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 326 | 53.1%173 W · 153 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85f9…51b1backed OG | 49c | 336.67$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.77 | 107 | 53.3%57 W · 50 L | +5.8wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf7…a506backed OG | 40c | 250$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 47 | 59.6%28 W · 19 L | +5.3wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc371…1e28backed OG | 53c | 221$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.47 | 468 | 43.4%203 W · 265 L | -11.7wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked OG | 40c | 215$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129 | 2,798 | 37.6%1,051 W · 1,747 L | -138.2wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked OG | 48c | 211.87$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.17 | 1,710 | 52.3%895 W · 815 L | -73.4wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7100…b346backed OG | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c8a…d30fbacked Alliance | 49c | 197.49$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.42 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2905…6255backed Alliance | 49c | 162.76$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.75 | 49 | 24.5%12 W · 37 L | -7.9wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed OG | 50c | 147$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.5 | 1,305 | 26.4%345 W · 960 L | -89.7wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x861f…a189backed OG | 53c | 143.87$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.08 | 921 | 52.6%484 W · 437 L | +16.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97c7…37adbacked Alliance | 48c | 128.12$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.78 | 667 | 53.1%354 W · 313 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1816…2ee6backed OG | 40c | 125.2$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.12 | 62 | 46.8%29 W · 33 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed OG | 75c | 125$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.25 | 4,038 | 48.1%1,943 W · 2,095 L | -23.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83d0…c927backed OG | 50c | 120$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 62 | 58.1%36 W · 26 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2fd5…ef85backed Alliance | 25c | 109.3$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.84 | 157 | 38.2%60 W · 97 L | -13.6wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5ab6…ee04backed Alliance | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8db7…5143backed OG | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +10%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x42b7…77dcbacked Alliance | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 356 | 43%153 W · 203 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73a2…3b68backed Alliance | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 960 | 49.7%477 W · 483 L | -18.8wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c2…b14dbacked OG | 59c | 78.15$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.12 | 596 | 47.3%282 W · 314 L | +8.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfc…e8efbacked Alliance | 20c | 64.87$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.92 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03c7…22f2backed OG | 50c | 64$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 166 | 50.6%84 W · 82 L | -7.6wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1412…b6debacked Alliance | 52c | 60.94$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.69 | 74 | 67.6%50 W · 24 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 65cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74d0…f39ebacked Alliance | 47c | 51$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.79 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked Alliance | 32c | 45.07$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 2,221 | 41.3%917 W · 1,304 L | -22.6wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b9a…73fabacked Alliance | 46c | 39.37$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.11 | 393 | 53.2%209 W · 184 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed OG | 75c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 698 | 63%440 W · 258 L | +65.3wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xca4a…338abacked OG | 62c | 26.89$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.33 | 48 | 43.8%21 W · 27 L | -4.6wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9d70…fdd9backed OG | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 53 | 50.9%27 W · 26 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Counter-Strike: Alliance vs OG - Map 2 Winnerthis page
- Counter-Strike: Alliance vs OG (BO3) - IEM Atlanta: Global Qualifier PlayoffsAlliance won
- Counter-Strike: Alliance vs OG - Map 1 WinnerAlliance won
- Map Handicap: OG (-1.5) vs Alliance (+1.5)Alliance won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.