NFL · resolved market
Chiefs vs. Bears
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x76e42239de73b10966339de8272649e336f2a0357f669b61234252fcc644dea7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Bearsof Chiefs, Bears
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,139
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,081
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,139 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2a14…0762backed Bears | 58c | 6,478$3,750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,728.39 | 102 | 39.2%40 W · 62 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x339a…1eaebacked Chiefs | 40c | 3,764$1,515 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,515.23 | 68 | 44.1%30 W · 38 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc3…7552backed Chiefs | 46c | 2,000$920 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$920 | 251 | 37.5%94 W · 157 L | -18.6wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9314…1e98backed Chiefs | 45c | 1,160$522 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$522.11 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb2fc…1881backed Bears | 55c | 917.1$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$417.1 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +77.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x481c…73eebacked Bears | 61c | 903$551 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$352.17 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +122%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe91…70ffbacked Chiefs | 45c | 899.99$407 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$406.58 | 137 | 51.8%71 W · 66 L | +6.2wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7e…4562backed Chiefs | 43c | 876.67$377 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$376.59 | 99 | 51.5%51 W · 48 L | +6.4wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked Bears | 60c | 772.5$464 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$309 | 247 | 38.1%94 W · 153 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1dbd…af92backed Bears | 63c | 748.23$469 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.75 | 186 | 45.7%85 W · 101 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6ae…d19cbacked Chiefs | 35c | 652.67$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.62 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fe…b77fbacked Bears | 52c | 599.09$312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287.56 | 75 | 41.3%31 W · 44 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75c7…5ef8backed Chiefs | 26c | 562$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.46 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd42f…047dbacked Chiefs | 47c | 549.3$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.95 | 324 | 38%123 W · 201 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe87a…6d01backed Chiefs | 48c | 500$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 64 | 28.1%18 W · 46 L | -12.6wins | -0.20per pick | 48cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x8db5…d7bcbacked Chiefs | 48c | 500$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa7cc…4952backed Chiefs | 46c | 500$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | +5.4wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +44.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xcede…f2f6backed Chiefs | 42c | 406.86$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.88 | 90 | 22.2%20 W · 70 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9733…f034backed Bears | 58c | 381$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.02 | 171 | 44.4%76 W · 95 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3573…b6f9backed Chiefs | 46c | 299.99$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.18per pick | 48cpaid | +101.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x90db…46cbbacked Bears | 56c | 270$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.9 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 62cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7856…139fbacked Chiefs | 49c | 255.1$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f50…4db9backed Chiefs | 36c | 209.99$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.65 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.16per pick | 52cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd834…6239backed Chiefs | 32c | 200$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.5 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.12per pick | 57cpaid | +38.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7ed…6c8bbacked Chiefs | 40c | 188.52$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.07 | 50 | 38%19 W · 31 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f7d…4feabacked Bears | 60c | 166.67$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.67 | 46 | 56.5%26 W · 20 L | +3.1wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd7cb…b857backed Bears | 57c | 155$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.65 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f69…7df1backed Bears | 62c | 151.84$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.7 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74f1…16a8backed Chiefs | 17c | 124.75$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.81 | 217 | 13.8%30 W · 187 L | -16.1wins | -0.07per pick | 21cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x530e…a4b2backed Chiefs | 39c | 111$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.29 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf612…5700backed Bears | 60c | 111$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.4 | 207 | 36.2%75 W · 132 L | -13.3wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -23%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x42aa…3cf1backed Chiefs | 48c | 104.17$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x05c3…d812backed Chiefs | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf339…e010backed Chiefs | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 196 | 54.1%106 W · 90 L | +15.6wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9193…c86cbacked Bears | 63c | 80$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.6 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6248…51cfbacked Chiefs | 31c | 69$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.3 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa686…3a30backed Chiefs | 47c | 67.66$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72d5…e2a5backed Bears | 56c | 66.43$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.23 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x216e…6501backed Chiefs | 47c | 63.83$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4842…7c89backed Chiefs | 47c | 57.45$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x232b…6600backed Bears | 56c | 53.57$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.57 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a35…94eebacked Chiefs | 47c | 52.34$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.6 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +16%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b55…02f8backed Bears | 58c | 49.99$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 73 | 46.6%34 W · 39 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1239…3cebbacked Chiefs | 37c | 39.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x373a…0773backed Chiefs | 47c | 31.91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40e3…0787backed Chiefs | 37c | 31$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.47 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…0b3fbacked Chiefs | 48c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46de…9d40backed Chiefs | 49c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb6c…30c5backed Bears | 54c | 24.07$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.07 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x708e…cebcbacked Bears | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.