Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 20°C or higher on April 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x76f22d1b3edcc0e2adf58cbd89b811394dcb8693a3d621c1e5e2a043b6150026
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,863
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,597
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,863 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 110 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe64d…5e09backed Yes | 1c | 1,484$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.79 | 133 | 15%20 W · 113 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed Yes | 22c | 896.8$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.99 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0eb…3ae9backed No | 79c | 586.94$464 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.93 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 21c | 534.4$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.56 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 13c | 471.64$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.75 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76fa…3ff4backed No | 73c | 396.12$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.27 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 18c | 376.79$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.33 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 25c | 360.49$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.5 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb95e…1a68backed No | 80c | 311.4$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.55 | 50 | 52%26 W · 24 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed Yes | 12c | 306.4$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.68 | 346 | 17.9%62 W · 284 L | +14.8wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…62cbbacked Yes | 33c | 277.85$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.37 | 118 | 74.6%88 W · 30 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea9…7927backed No | 78c | 262.77$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.6 | 81 | 51.9%42 W · 39 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 33c | 260.93$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.13 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 24c | 246.96$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.47 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e9…eb6cbacked No | 64c | 220.03$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.52 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.18per pick | 52cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef3…f1c5backed No | 77c | 208.83$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.6 | 324 | 44.4%144 W · 180 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdec8…c23cbacked Yes | 20c | 203.23$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.62 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +633.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed22…6450backed Yes | 22c | 199.99$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.8 | 431 | 39.2%169 W · 262 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c2b…36f4backed No | 80c | 198.91$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.78 | 73 | 47.9%35 W · 38 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b07…a7c5backed Yes | 62c | 187.91$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.41 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed Yes | 29c | 159.21$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.6 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9bda…439fbacked No | 76c | 158.72$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.41 | 594 | 40.6%241 W · 353 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 30c | 157.52$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.71 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked Yes | 28c | 141.65$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.95 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…3de8backed Yes | 21c | 140.71$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.3 | 685 | 21.5%147 W · 538 L | +12.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea6b…5ac2backed No | 74c | 132.08$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.71 | 534 | 37.3%199 W · 335 L | -29.9wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked Yes | 42c | 126.47$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.73 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 32c | 110.53$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.17 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 17c | 109.63$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.23 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa502…4c89backed No | 52c | 109.58$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.46 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e4…cdc1backed No | 78c | 109.5$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.43 | 105 | 62.9%66 W · 39 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 22c | 107.06$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.74 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 25c | 99.98$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2e…c770backed Yes | 19c | 99.98$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.7 | 395 | 41.3%163 W · 232 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa432…4228backed Yes | 48c | 95.98$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.22 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d14…02f0backed Yes | 35c | 91.06$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.96 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -31%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 60c | 90.67$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.56 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3f…f038backed No | 50c | 90$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 661 | 41.8%276 W · 385 L | -12.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7cda…1d96backed No | 62c | 85.97$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.47 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -2.4wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc4…cad5backed No | 54c | 81.85$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.28 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1744…30debacked Yes | 25c | 81.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 19c | 79.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.34 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x663b…78d1backed Yes | 46c | 79.84$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.05 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f5…1ad7backed No | 75c | 75$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.05 | 64 | 79.7%51 W · 13 L | +5.2wins | +0.08per pick | 72cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x131d…2a50backed Yes | 42c | 74.85$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.7 | 103 | 35.9%37 W · 66 L | -15.3wins | -0.15per pick | 51cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x3735…5a5bbacked No | 50c | 74.57$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.59 | 151 | 36.4%55 W · 96 L | -11.3wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -36%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ba…1349backed No | 56c | 72.68$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.83 | 271 | 67.2%182 W · 89 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 21c | 72.64$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.57 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce4b…bb90backed No | 74c | 65.72$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.01 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd169…216fbacked No | 79c | 61.72$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac16…4f44backed Yes | 26c | 60$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 230 | 35.7%82 W · 148 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65b9…dc25backed Yes | 28c | 59.89$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.88 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe11d…44ecbacked No | 41c | 59.54$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.37 | 180 | 41.7%75 W · 105 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x072f…86b1backed No | 79c | 55.59$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 111 | 51.4%57 W · 54 L | -8.0wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5d…9491backed No | 70c | 54.71$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.41 | 308 | 59.1%182 W · 126 L | -10.3wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88b6…7a17backed No | 77c | 54.61$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.43 | 55 | 65.5%36 W · 19 L | +5.5wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed Yes | 24c | 54.09$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.94 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe1fb…78d1backed No | 78c | 52.92$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.86 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.18per pick | 72cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb8b…6110backed No | 78c | 52.91$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.85 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74dc…c70dbacked No | 78c | 52.91$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.85 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1958…303cbacked No | 78c | 51.97$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.59 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ac9…d10dbacked No | 78c | 51.72$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.53 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa90f…033bbacked No | 78c | 51.66$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.57 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8208…a737backed Yes | 39c | 51.17$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.7 | 226 | 75.7%171 W · 55 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 72cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f89…8819backed No | 77c | 50.77$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.69 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 74cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf87…4cd7backed No | 78c | 50.33$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.22 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ed7…bb28backed Yes | 63c | 50$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.25 | 128 | 28.1%36 W · 92 L | +8.5wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x59cf…272fbacked Yes | 48c | 49.84$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.79 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd4a9…75f9backed No | 80c | 49.32$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.91 | 262 | 53.4%140 W · 122 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc52a…e37abacked Yes | 48c | 48.33$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.15 | 182 | 72%131 W · 51 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 62c | 47.89$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.21 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae47…638dbacked Yes | 44c | 47.81$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.14 | 525 | 71.2%374 W · 151 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x310c…0b68backed No | 45c | 47.07$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.97 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x767c…5441backed No | 45c | 46.59$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.58 | 81 | 43.2%35 W · 46 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3887…9496backed No | 77c | 45.64$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.64 | 243 | 70%170 W · 73 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2e…c9e1backed No | 36c | 40.61$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.15 | 204 | 31.9%65 W · 139 L | -14.5wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc678…e738backed Yes | 59c | 40.35$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.99 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22bd…445cbacked No | 78c | 40.27$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.98 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b31…1866backed No | 78c | 39.01$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6078…dbaebacked Yes | 60c | 38.98$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.49 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.33per pick | 53cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e04…d367backed Yes | 44c | 35.65$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.71 | 89 | 69.7%62 W · 27 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62d3…e694backed No | 79c | 32.05$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.73 | 161 | 35.4%57 W · 104 L | -12.0wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4d47…10b4backed No | 46c | 31.93$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.37 | 223 | 44.8%100 W · 123 L | -7.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a28…0e02backed No | 80c | 31$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1304…751ebacked No | 65c | 29.92$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.47 | 130 | 67.7%88 W · 42 L | +8.7wins | +0.07per pick | 61cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed No | 67c | 27.97$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.16 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 75c | 27.16$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.89 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a1…20f9backed No | 77c | 25.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 340 | 57.1%194 W · 146 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x938e…2ee3backed No | 56c | 25.48$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.23 | 76 | 59.2%45 W · 31 L | +5.7wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4a8c…7b0dbacked No | 78c | 25.21$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.66 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc67f…5115backed No | 65c | 24.13$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.44 | 108 | 50%54 W · 54 L | -6.0wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5337…222bbacked No | 47c | 23.31$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.31 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed Yes | 55c | 22.71$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.59 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x871c…a84fbacked No | 67c | 21.82$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.27 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaaac…3aaebacked No | 78c | 21.7$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.78 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0174…e522backed No | 71c | 20.38$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.81 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7515…0f90backed No | 73c | 20.09$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 159 | 54.7%87 W · 72 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65b6…129dbacked No | 75c | 19.69$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.94 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…0fa3backed No | 72c | 19.43$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 42 | 61.9%26 W · 16 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 20°C or higher on April 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 14°C on April 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 15°C on April 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 16°C on April 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 17°C on April 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 18°C on April 6?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 19°C on April 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.