Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 18°C on April 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf3c6aebdf2e5728e03c54dcdcccafdecdf7644ddf29d9cf36159eef222469623
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,524
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,617
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,524 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 90 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2ea9…7927backed Yes | 41c | 563.21$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$331.7 | 81 | 51.9%42 W · 39 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 53c | 469.69$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.99 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked No | 22c | 323.03$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.79 | 695 | 20%139 W · 556 L | -44.4wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9a26…c335backed Yes | 15c | 275.83$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.96 | 862 | 26.8%231 W · 631 L | +28.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe019…f862backed Yes | 41c | 270.67$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.89 | 280 | 21.8%61 W · 219 L | +11.1wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x859c…38e4backed No | 5c | 269.7$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.58 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 23cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 30c | 250.38$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.69 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f7e…063fbacked Yes | 17c | 199.93$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.44 | 53 | 22.6%12 W · 41 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 37c | 181.08$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.98 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 16c | 166.87$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.58 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 33c | 152.48$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.04 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e22…1b31backed No | 7c | 151.73$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.31 | 76 | 75%57 W · 19 L | +11.8wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x4de1…18a2backed Yes | 33c | 150$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.5 | 435 | 15.2%66 W · 369 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac16…4f44backed Yes | 31c | 149.96$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.47 | 230 | 35.7%82 W · 148 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x481c…2325backed No | 7c | 148.45$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 123 | 65%80 W · 43 L | +12.2wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 78c | 143.51$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.34 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 17c | 136.51$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.71 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde90…dadabacked No | 8c | 131.86$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.51 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 75c | 125.87$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.33 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ad4…fa20backed Yes | 22c | 106.48$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.75 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +2.6wins | +0.13per pick | 45cpaid | +36.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa36b…1d89backed Yes | 23c | 104.38$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.85 | 555 | 38.4%213 W · 342 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 52c | 104.09$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.31 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x7c14…a1d6backed No | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3886…b492backed Yes | 31c | 99.98$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.98 | 561 | 18.4%103 W · 458 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac68…f1fcbacked Yes | 31c | 99.97$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.98 | 107 | 28%30 W · 77 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 19c | 98.11$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.52 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 75c | 98$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.5 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1348…7037backed Yes | 70c | 97.16$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.15 | 176 | 65.9%116 W · 60 L | +12.7wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2512…9030backed Yes | 70c | 97$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.1 | 70 | 45.7%32 W · 38 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf46e…d74bbacked Yes | 23c | 95.62$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.46 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 22cpaid | +47.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x131d…2a50backed No | 64c | 93.09$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.58 | 103 | 35.9%37 W · 66 L | -15.3wins | -0.15per pick | 51cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x1bc1…5f7bbacked No | 64c | 90.45$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.68 | 105 | 69.5%73 W · 32 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9be9…7017backed Yes | 14c | 88.63$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.51 | 656 | 27.4%180 W · 476 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d6…8f66backed No | 48c | 87.44$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.97 | 180 | 52.8%95 W · 85 L | +9.7wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x966c…087fbacked Yes | 28c | 81.93$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.66 | 441 | 47.4%209 W · 232 L | -17.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ba…1349backed No | 58c | 81.58$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.32 | 271 | 67.2%182 W · 89 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 54c | 81.15$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.55 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfabc…7178backed No | 79c | 77.02$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.66 | 91 | 76.9%70 W · 21 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 74cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 28c | 75.97$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.7 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 19c | 68.18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.42 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde27…2a81backed Yes | 73c | 64.45$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.18 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e04…d367backed No | 80c | 62.46$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.68 | 89 | 69.7%62 W · 27 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…62cbbacked No | 69c | 62.21$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 118 | 74.6%88 W · 30 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 21c | 60.33$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.64 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f19…e819backed Yes | 34c | 54.94$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.26 | 529 | 35.7%189 W · 340 L | +26.7wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b1…ab63backed Yes | 68c | 51.67$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.76 | 385 | 47.5%183 W · 202 L | +16.9wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…3de8backed Yes | 20c | 51.19$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.96 | 685 | 21.5%147 W · 538 L | +12.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 43c | 50.01$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.75 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xa493…1b55backed Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 269 | 33.1%89 W · 180 L | +21.8wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +71.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 49c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb5d8…9dd0backed No | 55c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 123 | 30.1%37 W · 86 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9770…d57dbacked No | 78c | 49.92$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.03 | 486 | 72%350 W · 136 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb95e…1a68backed Yes | 45c | 47.25$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.99 | 50 | 52%26 W · 24 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f6…eadabacked No | 79c | 46.22$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.73 | 165 | 75.8%125 W · 40 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c7d…63debacked No | 66c | 44.7$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 48 | 60.4%29 W · 19 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8208…a737backed No | 79c | 44.42$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.24 | 226 | 75.7%171 W · 55 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 72cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…d934backed Yes | 57c | 41.31$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.71 | 644 | 60.6%390 W · 254 L | +92.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 53c | 40.97$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.84 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea28…f488backed Yes | 29c | 40$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x124b…a12cbacked Yes | 62c | 38.47$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.68 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 65cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2e…c9e1backed No | 38c | 38.05$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 204 | 31.9%65 W · 139 L | -14.5wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8aeb…ec41backed Yes | 50c | 38$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 30c | 37.42$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.15 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa1e5…b209backed Yes | 34c | 37.36$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.66 | 55 | 21.8%12 W · 43 L | -12.8wins | -0.23per pick | 45cpaid | -57.7%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x2fd9…2d15backed Yes | 29c | 37.16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc52a…e37abacked No | 80c | 32.98$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.34 | 182 | 72%131 W · 51 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4973…5527backed Yes | 76c | 32.88$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.89 | 300 | 46.7%140 W · 160 L | -8.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66c2…85f4backed Yes | 32c | 32.29$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.96 | 39 | 30.8%12 W · 27 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +106.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd65…c0b1backed No | 58c | 30.98$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.97 | 91 | 62.6%57 W · 34 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 79c | 30.96$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.32 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d47…10b4backed No | 48c | 30.34$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.56 | 223 | 44.8%100 W · 123 L | -7.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfadb…e3dcbacked Yes | 45c | 29.52$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.27 | 169 | 35.5%60 W · 109 L | +7.1wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x69e9…a06ebacked Yes | 50c | 28.52$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.36 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -2.3wins | -0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe768…10efbacked Yes | 69c | 28.27$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.9 | 113 | 55.8%63 W · 50 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa72a…61debacked No | 75c | 25.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.51 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 74cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5245…00c4backed Yes | 53c | 24.34$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.36 | 296 | 40.5%120 W · 176 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 71c | 22.58$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.03 | 763 | 71.4%545 W · 218 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc41…108fbacked Yes | 59c | 22.49$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.11 | 98 | 52%51 W · 47 L | +5.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 69c | 21.16$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe166…7227backed No | 69c | 21.07$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.54 | 97 | 79.4%77 W · 20 L | +8.9wins | +0.09per pick | 70cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x16d9…f0b0backed No | 77c | 20.58$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.82 | 286 | 48.3%138 W · 148 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6154…0404backed No | 76c | 20.54$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.62 | 35 | 80%28 W · 7 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 74cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 70c | 20.06$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x224c…0bf5backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b39…22f7backed Yes | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 63 | 19%12 W · 51 L | -4.2wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1b0e…6822backed No | 75c | 19.6$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.64 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 75cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf376…b135backed Yes | 59c | 19.51$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39fa…0b7dbacked No | 69c | 16.85$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.63 | 407 | 77.1%314 W · 93 L | +28.1wins | +0.07per pick | 70cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf6…c61bbacked No | 79c | 12.6$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 608 | 51.2%311 W · 297 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 18°C on April 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 14°C on April 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 15°C on April 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 16°C on April 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 17°C on April 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 19°C on April 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 20°C or higher on April 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.