Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 19°C on April 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcc4f05c39bb8e30dbcbfc2667a5fe3b70d7415071ad598a614e7104af04d3490
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,802
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,016
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,802 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfbb7…6f27backed Yes | 4c | 399.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 600 | 4.2%25 W · 575 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb95e…1a68backed No | 68c | 374.52$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.41 | 50 | 52%26 W · 24 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x765f…1508backed Yes | 14c | 318.11$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.52 | 330 | 18.8%62 W · 268 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 27c | 260.59$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.33 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 29c | 225.01$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.38 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed22…6450backed Yes | 31c | 217.27$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.45 | 431 | 39.2%169 W · 262 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1103…57e3backed Yes | 30c | 179.25$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.15 | 63 | 55.6%35 W · 28 L | +4.4wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea9…7927backed Yes | 32c | 171.89$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.46 | 81 | 51.9%42 W · 39 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 41c | 154.05$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.87 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 33c | 146.72$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.12 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 27c | 139.94$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.43 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked No | 72c | 126.14$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.84 | 695 | 20%139 W · 556 L | -44.4wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 71c | 117.72$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.6 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 22c | 115.55$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.76 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8cf0…ab54backed Yes | 25c | 115.28$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.3 | 163 | 20.2%33 W · 130 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f46…77e8backed Yes | 23c | 113.87$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.75 | 126 | 25.4%32 W · 94 L | +9.0wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +45.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 27c | 104.97$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.34 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2fd9…2d15backed Yes | 35c | 99.98$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.99 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x938e…2ee3backed Yes | 27c | 99.98$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.99 | 76 | 59.2%45 W · 31 L | +5.7wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xac16…4f44backed Yes | 37c | 99.98$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.99 | 230 | 35.7%82 W · 148 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3886…b492backed Yes | 33c | 99.95$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.98 | 561 | 18.4%103 W · 458 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 46c | 94.74$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.82 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 63c | 92.41$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.19 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb185…48c1backed Yes | 26c | 91.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 197 | 20.8%41 W · 156 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1dc1…2496backed Yes | 26c | 91.63$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.25 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | +16%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 22c | 87.25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.19 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1bc1…5f7bbacked No | 68c | 83.78$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.91 | 105 | 69.5%73 W · 32 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfabc…7178backed No | 75c | 73.88$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.16 | 91 | 76.9%70 W · 21 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 74cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…3de8backed Yes | 19c | 71.24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.29 | 685 | 21.5%147 W · 538 L | +12.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 26c | 63.62$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.66 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 29c | 59.88$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.07 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfadb…e3dcbacked Yes | 21c | 59.05$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.27 | 169 | 35.5%60 W · 109 L | +7.1wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 35c | 57.38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.2 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 26c | 54.81$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.47 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e04…d367backed No | 76c | 54.64$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.9 | 89 | 69.7%62 W · 27 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed Yes | 27c | 54.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.79 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x69e9…a06ebacked Yes | 37c | 52.7$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -2.3wins | -0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc52a…e37abacked No | 77c | 47.99$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 182 | 72%131 W · 51 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f8a…b076backed Yes | 44c | 47.84$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.88 | 208 | 35.6%74 W · 134 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa82…ea2dbacked Yes | 35c | 43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.05 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.34per pick | 46cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0f18…5b28backed No | 68c | 42.09$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.31 | 265 | 66.4%176 W · 89 L | +13.0wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f0d…7a8fbacked No | 65c | 40.53$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.19 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.28per pick | 55cpaid | +56.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 66c | 40.42$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.56 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 63c | 39.36$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 60c | 38.17$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.12 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…62cbbacked No | 65c | 37.12$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.99 | 118 | 74.6%88 W · 30 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dbb…c0abbacked Yes | 31c | 36.52$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.32 | 95 | 51.6%49 W · 46 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae47…638dbacked No | 75c | 36.26$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.92 | 525 | 71.2%374 W · 151 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 34c | 36.1$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.21 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 69c | 35$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.85 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b2…21f4backed No | 73c | 34.5$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.48 | 297 | 70.4%209 W · 88 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8283…bd68backed Yes | 33c | 34$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.22 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c8…e547backed Yes | 41c | 33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.53 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 76c | 32.44$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.74 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9770…d57dbacked No | 72c | 29.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.45 | 486 | 72%350 W · 136 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7201…e62bbacked No | 67c | 28.04$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.25 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +133.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa119…143cbacked No | 67c | 26.52$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.87 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 53cpaid | -62.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e8e…7731backed No | 67c | 26.11$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.62 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.33per pick | 66cpaid | +57.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x34be…7c96backed No | 59c | 23.02$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.44 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +73.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8208…a737backed No | 71c | 22.9$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.62 | 226 | 75.7%171 W · 55 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 72cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe166…7227backed No | 65c | 22.27$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.79 | 97 | 79.4%77 W · 20 L | +8.9wins | +0.09per pick | 70cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 67c | 21.33$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.04 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13f3…d427backed No | 72c | 20.91$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.85 | 326 | 69%225 W · 101 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0198…133bbacked No | 66c | 20.31$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 184 | 52.2%96 W · 88 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7515…0f90backed No | 69c | 19.49$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.04 | 159 | 54.7%87 W · 72 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa514…7b70backed No | 65c | 19.43$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.86 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 71cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ff…3689backed No | 69c | 19.43$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.12 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd27c…d996backed No | 59c | 19.18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.86 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +2.6wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +102.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x39fa…0b7dbacked No | 66c | 18.18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.18 | 407 | 77.1%314 W · 93 L | +28.1wins | +0.07per pick | 70cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5f…2affbacked No | 65c | 17.37$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.08 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.21per pick | 61cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6154…0404backed No | 75c | 16.87$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.19 | 35 | 80%28 W · 7 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 74cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x399f…e8d8backed No | 64c | 16.52$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 101 | 54.5%55 W · 46 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa72a…61debacked No | 71c | 16.44$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.78 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 74cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 19°C on April 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 14°C on April 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 15°C on April 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 16°C on April 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 17°C on April 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 18°C on April 6?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 20°C or higher on April 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.