Lol · resolved market
Game Handicap: Navi (-1.5) vs Fnatic (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x76f87342545ec1c93edc923d6323f57496550e32cf6add00c4bfa605f024626d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Fnaticof Natus Vincere, Fnatic
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $77,843
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $81,734
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $77,843 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Lol | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x40ea…832fbacked Natus Vincere | 42c | 51,305$21,509 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21,508.64 | 203 | 39.9%81 W · 122 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1341…0853backed Fnatic | 58c | 31,125$18,072 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,053.01 | 1,827 | 45.6%834 W · 993 L | +26.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9770…0ff5backed Fnatic | 58c | 16,182$9,385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,796.31 | 594 | 50.2%298 W · 296 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53f2…5343backed Natus Vincere | 42c | 6,040$2,559 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,559.42 | 122 | 36.9%45 W · 77 L | -5.1wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8c…65ddbacked Fnatic | 57c | 4,527$2,589 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,937.55 | 704 | 56.4%397 W · 307 L | +39.3wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa048…dd23backed Fnatic | 59c | 3,870$2,268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,602.08 | 131 | 35.1%46 W · 85 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda3a…381fbacked Fnatic | 59c | 3,363$1,981 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,381.8 | 1,485 | 50.1%744 W · 741 L | +67.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x05df…e268backed Natus Vincere | 41c | 2,000$820 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$820 | 232 | 41.4%96 W · 136 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e32…ab65backed Fnatic | 60c | 1,687$1,012 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$674.65 | 2,156 | 53.2%1,148 W · 1,008 L | +57.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x842a…7422backed Fnatic | 58c | 1,633$949 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$683.26 | 528 | 48.9%258 W · 270 L | -9.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9ab…f282backed Fnatic | 58c | 1,500$870 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$629.99 | 1,029 | 52.3%538 W · 491 L | +27.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c75…1b0dbacked Fnatic | 55c | 1,312$722 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$590.33 | 91 | 29.7%27 W · 64 L | -8.0wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c2…9b8dbacked Natus Vincere | 40c | 1,090$437 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$437.1 | 592 | 48.3%286 W · 306 L | +15.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf29…834cbacked Natus Vincere | 42c | 1,067$448 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$448.04 | 82 | 53.7%44 W · 38 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec54…e8c1backed Natus Vincere | 40c | 1,002$401 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400.76 | 1,308 | 38.6%505 W · 803 L | -64.8wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ad…6979backed Fnatic | 59c | 968$569 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$398.55 | 861 | 44.1%380 W · 481 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd507…a6ddbacked Natus Vincere | 42c | 914.82$383 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$382.85 | 300 | 35%105 W · 195 L | -21.3wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Fnatic | 61c | 781.28$477 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$304.7 | 1,794 | 51.1%917 W · 877 L | +50.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a5e…8fd0backed Natus Vincere | 45c | 763.48$344 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$343.57 | 537 | 53.6%288 W · 249 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7786…c005backed Natus Vincere | 39c | 685.4$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.31 | 225 | 36.9%83 W · 142 L | -11.4wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x09ee…90a4backed Fnatic | 60c | 625$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.17 | 86 | 33.7%29 W · 57 L | -8.6wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -28%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4fbf…4605backed Natus Vincere | 48c | 607.73$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.71 | 260 | 42.3%110 W · 150 L | -8.8wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40ce…bf90backed Fnatic | 52c | 598.67$311 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287.36 | 1,151 | 56%644 W · 507 L | +25.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a4f…e6ffbacked Natus Vincere | 42c | 574.29$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.2 | 159 | 50.9%81 W · 78 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a2c…5172backed Natus Vincere | 45c | 537.93$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.74 | 436 | 40.6%177 W · 259 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf3b…0375backed Natus Vincere | 39c | 528.74$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.21 | 376 | 47.9%180 W · 196 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb70c…41d5backed Natus Vincere | 46c | 500$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230 | 176 | 33.5%59 W · 117 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a3e…5d9dbacked Fnatic | 61c | 449.88$274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.45 | 480 | 42.3%203 W · 277 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Natus Vincere | 41c | 438.31$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.97 | 608 | 49.5%301 W · 307 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93f4…ea90backed Fnatic | 52c | 400$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192 | 1,110 | 49%544 W · 566 L | +42.0wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x224b…8927backed Fnatic | 54c | 330.62$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.08 | 420 | 50.5%212 W · 208 L | +27.9wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdd92…6b2abacked Fnatic | 60c | 315.83$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.33 | 84 | 44%37 W · 47 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84fe…be09backed Natus Vincere | 48c | 300.56$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.27 | 81 | 32.1%26 W · 55 L | -9.6wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Fnatic | 59c | 264.52$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.43 | 142 | 28.2%40 W · 102 L | -9.6wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5b0b…612abacked Natus Vincere | 40c | 241$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.4 | 440 | 46.4%204 W · 236 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa63b…b8cfbacked Natus Vincere | 42c | 230.3$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.51 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb503…7552backed Natus Vincere | 46c | 211.54$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.74 | 163 | 46.6%76 W · 87 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Natus Vincere | 42c | 199.44$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.28 | 2,495 | 47.3%1,181 W · 1,314 L | -32.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Fnatic | 54c | 195.33$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.85 | 1,368 | 37.7%516 W · 852 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61e1…adf1backed Natus Vincere | 40c | 192.8$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.12 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdded…13a2backed Fnatic | 60c | 165.29$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.1 | 144 | 50.7%73 W · 71 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6077…3231backed Natus Vincere | 40c | 144.6$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.84 | 84 | 48.8%41 W · 43 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6983…88c3backed Natus Vincere | 40c | 133.9$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.99 | 45 | 46.7%21 W · 24 L | +4.1wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x87ed…b497backed Natus Vincere | 39c | 130.99$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.09 | 390 | 56.4%220 W · 170 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5252…a7cdbacked Natus Vincere | 40c | 122.91$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.16 | 644 | 35.4%228 W · 416 L | -28.0wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a61…bbb2backed Natus Vincere | 40c | 120.5$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.2 | 321 | 42.1%135 W · 186 L | +9.8wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | 0%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6ee…0e41backed Natus Vincere | 38c | 114.95$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.48 | 61 | 42.6%26 W · 35 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Natus Vincere | 42c | 106.26$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.63 | 1,061 | 54.7%580 W · 481 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7645…3117backed Fnatic | 57c | 85.07$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.58 | 823 | 52.7%434 W · 389 L | +41.8wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30ab…f338backed Fnatic | 59c | 84.41$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.61 | 234 | 43.2%101 W · 133 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Fnatic | 51c | 83.23$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.4 | 2,406 | 42.6%1,026 W · 1,380 L | +21.5wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1be…6471backed Natus Vincere | 48c | 77.5$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.2 | 69 | 47.8%33 W · 36 L | -5.5wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ef2…5584backed Natus Vincere | 40c | 72.3$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.92 | 65 | 44.6%29 W · 36 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8e8…ef2bbacked Fnatic | 60c | 64.82$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.78 | 645 | 56.6%365 W · 280 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c9d…5d14backed Fnatic | 55c | 61.76$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.93 | 110 | 58.2%64 W · 46 L | +5.9wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b3e…b265backed Natus Vincere | 40c | 60.25$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.1 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b74…cbaebacked Fnatic | 63c | 58.2$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.53 | 162 | 54.3%88 W · 74 L | +7.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6d…2671backed Fnatic | 61c | 57.11$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.06 | 1,576 | 48.4%763 W · 813 L | +17.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d38…6f08backed Natus Vincere | 39c | 49.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 626 | 49.8%312 W · 314 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe61a…292dbacked Fnatic | 59c | 49.7$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.44 | 461 | 54.9%253 W · 208 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e86…7932backed Natus Vincere | 41c | 49.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.26 | 611 | 50.6%309 W · 302 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Natus Vincere | 50c | 47.83$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.77 | 1,599 | 46.8%748 W · 851 L | -48.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43f5…40d0backed Fnatic | 59c | 47.82$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.61 | 60 | 63.3%38 W · 22 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc553…5928backed Natus Vincere | 42c | 38.61$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.22 | 417 | 43.9%183 W · 234 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69fa…e259backed Fnatic | 54c | 36.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.95 | 581 | 55.6%323 W · 258 L | +17.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e8f…4374backed Fnatic | 54c | 36.65$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.86 | 203 | 32%65 W · 138 L | -16.2wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4a41…15b2backed Natus Vincere | 43c | 31.44$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.52 | 138 | 42.8%59 W · 79 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b25…10aabacked Fnatic | 60c | 31.12$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.45 | 357 | 55.7%199 W · 158 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ba…0bc3backed Fnatic | 62c | 30.84$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.69 | 186 | 40.9%76 W · 110 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd69…49ebbacked Natus Vincere | 49c | 30.15$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd35e…a1e8backed Fnatic | 60c | 28.01$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 127 | 63%80 W · 47 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6202…8872backed Fnatic | 42c | 27.07$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.61 | 398 | 59.8%238 W · 160 L | +31.2wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x60d8…85f8backed Fnatic | 58c | 26.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.34 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x14ff…b4dabacked Natus Vincere | 46c | 22$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 69 | 68.1%47 W · 22 L | +5.2wins | +0.08per pick | 61cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c5…4291backed Fnatic | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 285 | 59.6%170 W · 115 L | +11.0wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Game Handicap: Navi (-1.5) vs Fnatic (+1.5)this page
- First Blood in Game 1?Natus Vincere won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Over won
- LoL: Fnatic vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - LEC Regular SeasonNatus Vincere won
- LoL: Fnatic vs Natus Vincere - Game 1 WinnerFnatic won
- LoL: Fnatic vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 WinnerNatus Vincere won
- Total Kills Over/Under 26.5 in Game 1?Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.