TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Lol · resolved market

LoL: Fnatic vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Natus Vincereof Fnatic, Natus Vincere
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$402,214
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$511,556

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $402,214 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 290 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Lol
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xec92…6b59backed Fnatic1c33,332$278 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$277.7516511.5%19 W · 146 L+7.1wins+0.04per pick7cpaid+70.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3833…33d1backed Fnatic41c30,293$12,356 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,355.9364155.7%357 W · 284 L+27.8wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+12.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x01e6…e7e0backed Fnatic35c20,082$7,069 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,069.0348149.7%239 W · 242 L+8.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc44f…d49fbacked Natus Vincere62c19,366$11,972 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,393.9157246%263 W · 309 L-9.6wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2cad…eb66backed Fnatic38c14,895$5,596 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,595.6448157.6%277 W · 204 L+10.6wins+0.02per pick55cpaid-2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Natus Vincere59c14,526$8,625 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,900.9490348.4%437 W · 466 L+14.5wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+7.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Fnatic17c10,551$1,792 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,792.021,94048.1%934 W · 1,006 L+22.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-9.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6204…0b06backed Fnatic38c9,770$3,713 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,712.5532440.4%131 W · 193 L+11.9wins+0.04per pick37cpaid+6.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7365…f031backed Fnatic0c9,412$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.5910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7645…3117backed Natus Vincere59c8,000$4,720 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,28082352.7%434 W · 389 L+41.8wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+15.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9b49…04a8backed Natus Vincere63c7,669$4,840 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,828.9539964.4%257 W · 142 L-5.4wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xda3a…381fbacked Fnatic36c7,000$2,520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,5201,48550.1%744 W · 741 L+67.0wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+5.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb40e…7787backed Natus Vincere64c6,954$4,431 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,522.9164443%277 W · 367 L-27.0wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-12.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x03f4…7e44backed Fnatic37c6,712$2,461 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,461.0796250.1%482 W · 480 L+1.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x000e…f7e9backed Natus Vincere61c4,500$2,745 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,754.9989943.4%390 W · 509 L+22.3wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x69bf…0c5dbacked Fnatic33c4,000$1,320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,319.9823252.6%122 W · 110 L+20.2wins+0.09per pick44cpaid+21.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x5fea…78b1backed Natus Vincere61c3,662$2,238 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,424.3413936%50 W · 89 L-0.5wins0.00per pick36cpaid-23.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbca8…cf14backed Fnatic36c3,659$1,317 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,317.231,00354%542 W · 461 L+15.4wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+5.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7553…65cabacked Natus Vincere59c3,410$2,029 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,381.0467250.9%342 W · 330 L+6.4wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe361…ae44backed Fnatic3c3,345$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.4489347%420 W · 473 L+44.2wins+0.05per pick42cpaid-7.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed Fnatic35c3,310$1,161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,161.381,25838.6%485 W · 773 L-61.8wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-20.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x76b4…ca9bbacked Natus Vincere62c3,240$2,006 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,234.4744550.1%223 W · 222 L-5.9wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-8.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked Fnatic11c3,199$355 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$355.11,59842.4%677 W · 921 L-17.9wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-14.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaea5…6163backed Natus Vincere64c3,106$1,988 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,118.1545366%299 W · 154 L+4.9wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf60…a6f5backed Natus Vincere74c3,065$2,254 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$811.391854%496 W · 422 L-1.5wins0.00per pick54cpaid+1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed Natus Vincere61c3,000$1,830 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,169.983,58440.1%1,437 W · 2,147 L+31.1wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x802b…7d57backed Fnatic38c2,877$1,103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,102.6317041.8%71 W · 99 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+8.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8705…edbabacked Fnatic35c2,688$934 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$933.6342941.5%178 W · 251 L-24.0wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-20%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xfae6…ab69backed Fnatic25c2,476$624 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$623.7854246.3%251 W · 291 L+7.6wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2518…254fbacked Natus Vincere64c2,455$1,561 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$894.2953355%293 W · 240 L+23.5wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+4.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xce08…510bbacked Fnatic39c2,420$936 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$935.931,21254.5%660 W · 552 L+52.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+9.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3234…8b1abacked Natus Vincere62c2,404$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$904.057358.9%43 W · 30 L+4.3wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+7.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x141f…7711backed Natus Vincere62c2,329$1,433 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$896.7714248.6%69 W · 73 L-4.7wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-18.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x41bb…26e8backed Natus Vincere64c2,294$1,468 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$825.9221749.8%108 W · 109 L-7.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6e32…ab65backed Fnatic38c2,203$837 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$837.122,15653.2%1,148 W · 1,008 L+57.4wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfd14…2267backed Fnatic20c2,198$433 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$433.322,36232%755 W · 1,607 L+42.0wins+0.02per pick30cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5b10…9659backed Natus Vincere59c2,000$1,180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8201,43557.4%824 W · 611 L+36.0wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+5.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x085e…9aeabacked Fnatic41c1,941$796 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79611655.2%64 W · 52 L+2.6wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8d85…f4e0backed Fnatic17c1,900$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$319.7164247.4%304 W · 338 L+24.2wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-1.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7a0f…1305backed Natus Vincere63c1,730$1,092 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$638.421,46361.4%899 W · 564 L-19.5wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6df6…8458backed Natus Vincere61c1,663$1,017 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$645.5435431.1%110 W · 244 L-5.4wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-14.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4a5e…8fd0backed Natus Vincere62c1,576$977 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$598.9353753.6%288 W · 249 L+4.4wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3471…f17ebacked Fnatic24c1,564$371 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$370.731,00342.5%426 W · 577 L-24.5wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-19.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x566b…639bbacked Fnatic15c1,535$231 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$231.09250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.20per pick30cpaid+13.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa623…a4febacked Fnatic15c1,482$222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$222.3560347.9%289 W · 314 L+7.1wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+11%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb7b3…9573backed Natus Vincere62c1,472$913 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$559.481,80639.1%707 W · 1,099 L-30.8wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-12%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2aa5…ff32backed Natus Vincere68c1,455$990 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$464.951,22549.6%607 W · 618 L+15.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3ab5…e56fbacked Fnatic10c1,435$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.6724326.7%65 W · 178 L+4.5wins+0.02per pick25cpaid+16.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xea58…930fbacked Natus Vincere62c1,368$848 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$519.871,21644.4%540 W · 676 L-12.7wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb003…d962backed Fnatic36c1,351$481 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$480.6779151.8%410 W · 381 L+15.5wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2fcb…78cfbacked Natus Vincere61c1,310$799 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$510.8964749.9%323 W · 324 L-24.9wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-7.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed Natus Vincere68c1,298$880 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$418.441,73144.2%765 W · 966 L-28.4wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-15.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2d39…6053backed Fnatic13c1,274$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160.4685442.7%365 W · 489 L-14.3wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-15.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa557…5e8abacked Fnatic1c1,200$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1540916.1%66 W · 343 L-0.8wins0.00per pick16cpaid+23.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4e8d…febfbacked Natus Vincere76c1,194$910 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$283.9726844%118 W · 150 L-37.1wins-0.14per pick58cpaid-26.2%equal weight36-0.13 edge/pick
0x3f97…4059backed Natus Vincere61c1,189$720 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$469.011,15649.1%568 W · 588 L-17.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+0.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xdd88…dadbbacked Fnatic39c1,126$439 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$439.011,09252.4%572 W · 520 L+6.2wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Natus Vincere74c1,062$791 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$271.91,59234%541 W · 1,051 L-79.3wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-32.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8b72…6dbebacked Fnatic3c1,050$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.7866116.5%109 W · 552 L-7.3wins-0.01per pick18cpaid-27.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd459…4757backed Fnatic40c1,014$401 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$400.6657754.9%317 W · 260 L+24.1wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+13.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8e34…4480backed Natus Vincere60c1,000$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40041343.8%181 W · 232 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-1.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb4c8…cf96backed Fnatic2c1,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207341.1%30 W · 43 L+6.7wins+0.09per pick32cpaid-15.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x54a6…7401backed Fnatic38c1,000$380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38052750.5%266 W · 261 L+13.5wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcb08…b630backed Fnatic7c1,000$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7317032.9%56 W · 114 L-3.8wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-15.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa19d…3909backed Natus Vincere61c1,000$610 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3901,52150.6%769 W · 752 L+3.8wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xabd6…ca90backed Natus Vincere62c999.99$620 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38020764.3%133 W · 74 L-5.9wins-0.03per pick67cpaid-4.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6463…1f5cbacked Natus Vincere61c998.11$609 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$389.2617143.3%74 W · 97 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-8.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe4da…1772backed Natus Vincere68c990.44$673 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$316.9457945.9%266 W · 313 L-13.2wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-7.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0b55…e87dbacked Fnatic1c988.5$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.374266.7%28 W · 14 L+3.9wins+0.09per pick57cpaid+10.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6f84…202ebacked Natus Vincere62c988.47$613 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$375.6295847.6%456 W · 502 L+1.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid+2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x695d…0d7cbacked Fnatic31c979.14$304 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$303.5367553.5%361 W · 314 L+25.4wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6eb8…c665backed Natus Vincere62c948.83$588 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$360.5633143.8%145 W · 186 L-11.9wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-14.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb936…6718backed Fnatic15c859.84$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.851172.7%8 W · 3 L+1.5wins+0.14per pick59cpaid+20.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdfa8…cae6backed Natus Vincere59c829.34$493 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$336.0382953.4%443 W · 386 L-3.7wins0.00per pick54cpaid-4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4dbd…4476backed Natus Vincere62c811.96$503 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$308.5425853.5%138 W · 120 L+0.1wins0.00per pick53cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec54…e8c1backed Natus Vincere64c804.12$515 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$289.481,30838.6%505 W · 803 L-64.8wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-11.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6acf…fb01backed Natus Vincere61c796.65$488 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$308.2611100%11 W · 0 L+4.5wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+106.4%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0x709c…ce30backed Fnatic24c786.45$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188.7510034%34 W · 66 L-5.3wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-32.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf5ea…d07fbacked Natus Vincere62c781.76$485 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$297.0795951.3%492 W · 467 L+42.8wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+6.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x59d2…8d52backed Natus Vincere71c760.56$540 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$220.561100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+40.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x943f…e33dbacked Natus Vincere71c760.56$540 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$220.561100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+40.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1065…6218backed Natus Vincere62c756.65$469 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$287.5354529.7%162 W · 383 L-34.7wins-0.06per pick36cpaid-18.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x68a6…e96bbacked Fnatic39c750$292 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$292.51,21848.7%593 W · 625 L+0.7wins0.00per pick49cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x135f…528cbacked Fnatic39c738.61$288 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$288.0617228.5%49 W · 123 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-10.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3a81…23e2backed Natus Vincere71c715.58$508 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$207.522100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0e91…ea34backed Natus Vincere62c708.23$437 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$270.8250569.9%353 W · 152 L+15.1wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4449…5095backed Natus Vincere70c707.4$494 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$213.016633.3%22 W · 44 L-2.2wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-19.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xcfa2…e1cdbacked Fnatic31c699.8$219 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$219.1420%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x272b…7e75backed Fnatic41c687.76$282 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$281.981154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcec1…9c0cbacked Fnatic29c685.1$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198.6843442.4%184 W · 250 L-18.3wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-10%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe891…e3ddbacked Fnatic11c678.76$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.9112660.3%76 W · 50 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-8.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x40ce…bf90backed Fnatic39c674.38$263 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$263.011,15156%644 W · 507 L+25.4wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+8.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1b50…ea47backed Fnatic11c641.9$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.191,29426.6%344 W · 950 L+65.3wins+0.05per pick22cpaid+17.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1b12…5f8fbacked Fnatic42c637.88$268 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$267.9130856.5%174 W · 134 L+12.3wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x78d9…70f6backed Natus Vincere71c620.25$439 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$181.3129527.1%80 W · 215 L+6.7wins+0.02per pick25cpaid+0.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Natus Vincere65c605$396 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$209.192,20233.3%733 W · 1,469 L-72.4wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-21.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9fab…afd6backed Natus Vincere72c600$432 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$168785.7%6 W · 1 L+1.5wins+0.22per pick64cpaid+42.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8b55…d74bbacked Natus Vincere59c592.44$347 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$245.8286649.7%430 W · 436 L+18.3wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+7.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd5db…0716backed Fnatic16c588.66$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.9710343.7%45 W · 58 L+6.4wins+0.06per pick37cpaid+4.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf5b7…3e1cbacked Natus Vincere62c585.59$363 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$222.5334651.2%177 W · 169 L+1.0wins0.00per pick51cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.