Lol · resolved market
Games Total: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x22208552b8bd1387f7995e0765eded5f147e7cc9d57ba1d68b3b5172cb1f21a7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,022
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,873
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,022 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Lol | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb10b…0b04backed Over | 41c | 2,429$996 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,433.11 | 510 | 44.1%225 W · 285 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd98…6178backed Under | 59c | 1,600$944 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$943.97 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -5.1wins | -0.19per pick | 56cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xef21…3dc9backed Over | 43c | 909.33$391 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$518.32 | 240 | 41.3%99 W · 141 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa5…ff32backed Under | 56c | 900.94$508 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$508.44 | 1,225 | 49.6%607 W · 618 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x802b…7d57backed Under | 58c | 705.63$409 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$409.42 | 170 | 41.8%71 W · 99 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Under | 59c | 650$384 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$383.5 | 508 | 48.4%246 W · 262 L | +13.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a3c…38d3backed Over | 42c | 442.48$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.64 | 564 | 32.1%181 W · 383 L | -2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cff…3984backed Over | 44c | 439.27$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.99 | 109 | 47.7%52 W · 57 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde19…3a14backed Under | 62c | 350.63$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.39 | 138 | 52.2%72 W · 66 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc621…7c5cbacked Under | 39c | 297.28$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.59 | 20 | 75%15 W · 5 L | +5.3wins | +0.26per pick | 49cpaid | +54.5%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Under | 50c | 264$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132 | 1,368 | 37.7%516 W · 852 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85f7…8980backed Over | 50c | 256.08$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.04 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.22per pick | 50cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Under | 58c | 243.7$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.35 | 1,061 | 54.7%580 W · 481 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfce…5c3ebacked Over | 42c | 212.34$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.16 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | -5.7wins | -0.18per pick | 40cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2e7c…164dbacked Over | 42c | 211.38$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.6 | 447 | 43.6%195 W · 252 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 58c | 199.44$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.76 | 2,495 | 47.3%1,181 W · 1,314 L | -32.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52c5…5878backed Under | 58c | 194.96$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.08 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5cee…dfadbacked Under | 62c | 157.61$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.72 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x045d…185dbacked Over | 42c | 137.89$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.97 | 634 | 58.4%370 W · 264 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b1a…d790backed Over | 42c | 137.52$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.76 | 65 | 44.6%29 W · 36 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54e0…b02cbacked Under | 19c | 112.43$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.28 | 1,134 | 31%352 W · 782 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd790…a24ebacked Under | 38c | 101.35$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.51 | 42 | 40.5%17 W · 25 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb22a…a80dbacked Over | 79c | 99.33$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.86 | 71 | 57.7%41 W · 30 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1816…2ee6backed Over | 48c | 80.73$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.98 | 292 | 40.8%119 W · 173 L | -20.4wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd066…9eecbacked Over | 45c | 54.2$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.03 | 39 | 61.5%24 W · 15 L | +4.5wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +24%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x53ab…65aabacked Over | 62c | 53.75$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.43 | 1,609 | 48.4%779 W · 830 L | +24.6wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6eeb…f331backed Under | 39c | 51.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.19 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -3.2wins | -0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Under | 47c | 46.42$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.84 | 142 | 28.2%40 W · 102 L | -9.6wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked Over | 62c | 42.58$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.18 | 955 | 51.7%494 W · 461 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6202…8872backed Over | 56c | 41.91$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.57 | 398 | 59.8%238 W · 160 L | +31.2wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3e8f…4374backed Under | 59c | 30.39$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.93 | 203 | 32%65 W · 138 L | -16.2wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Over | 42c | 27.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.23 | 358 | 44.4%159 W · 199 L | -15.5wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e60…449abacked Under | 37c | 26.95$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01ad…d823backed Over | 65c | 22.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.91 | 85 | 55.3%47 W · 38 L | +9.2wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +50.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd479…1920backed Under | 56c | 18$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 202 | 69.3%140 W · 62 L | +16.0wins | +0.08per pick | 61cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Games Total: O/U 2.5this page
- First Blood in Game 1?Natus Vincere won
- Game Handicap: Navi (-1.5) vs Fnatic (+1.5)Fnatic won
- LoL: Fnatic vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - LEC Regular SeasonNatus Vincere won
- LoL: Fnatic vs Natus Vincere - Game 1 WinnerFnatic won
- LoL: Fnatic vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 WinnerNatus Vincere won
- Total Kills Over/Under 26.5 in Game 1?Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.