Weather · resolved market
70°F in NYC in December?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7716068dbaff8bf09bfcf73376063fe0ec974cc19dc4751a650426989a56d6cb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $94,405
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $123,292
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $94,405 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x96b5…f5e7backed Yes | 9c | 4,147$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$369.88 | 54 | 18.5%10 W · 44 L | -5.7wins | -0.11per pick | 29cpaid | -58.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…4805backed Yes | 8c | 2,589$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a4d…3e88backed Yes | 4c | 2,287$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.01 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8948…28d5backed Yes | 7c | 1,854$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4257…7af7backed Yes | 7c | 1,429$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcef4…6c83backed Yes | 12c | 1,365$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 9c | 1,315$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.92 | 382 | 43.2%165 W · 217 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x668d…97d2backed Yes | 12c | 1,030$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.54 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f5f…5985backed Yes | 14c | 1,025$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed Yes | 14c | 668$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecbe…42ffbacked Yes | 9c | 599.98$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -60%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x188b…6003backed Yes | 13c | 531.76$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08c8…1da2backed Yes | 8c | 499.98$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc9fe…0675backed Yes | 11c | 466.62$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7b…d06fbacked Yes | 13c | 423.81$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +2.0wins | +0.29per pick | 28cpaid | +79.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb6…ec60backed Yes | 14c | 354.81$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e88…fb4dbacked Yes | 15c | 339.99$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42a2…9bbabacked Yes | 11c | 307.69$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a46…bbfbbacked Yes | 8c | 220$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x741f…f6cabacked Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba36…27eabacked Yes | 11c | 181$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.91 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x414e…6518backed Yes | 12c | 166.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e8f…f9e9backed Yes | 12c | 161.59$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.13per pick | 27cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab5b…8d88backed Yes | 15c | 133.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ee6…a6c7backed Yes | 12c | 125$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb234…aaf4backed Yes | 12c | 124.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.92 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f95…8c17backed Yes | 10c | 110$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed Yes | 11c | 105.38$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.38 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b23…7c56backed Yes | 13c | 102$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddc6…03c5backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x959f…1f12backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f5b…6759backed Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda4d…c8eebacked Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…c109backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3670…7d7bbacked Yes | 15c | 90.73$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91de…0b43backed Yes | 14c | 90$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf259…7592backed Yes | 16c | 63.51$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.16 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.