TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Movies · resolved market

Will "The Rip" be the top US Netflix movie this week? (January 27, 2026)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$25,570
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$23,130

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,570 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Movies
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6837…15e1backed No9c7,821$694 inLost-$694.0211637.1%43 W · 73 L+14.1wins+0.12per pick25cpaid+25.8%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x96b5…5124backed No18c782.5$143 inLost-$143.41050%5 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-16.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x90bf…99ebbacked No10c519$53 inLost-$53.47222.2%16 W · 56 L-0.3wins0.00per pick23cpaid-39.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5081…a309backed No4c400$17 inLost-$17614.9%3 W · 58 L-0.1wins0.00per pick5cpaid-31.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No9c374.24$32 inLost-$31.841,3938%111 W · 1,282 L-47.9wins-0.03per pick11cpaid-50%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe61d…e172backed No7c341.14$23 inLost-$23.093246.9%15 W · 17 L+2.1wins+0.07per pick40cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfbf2…887dbacked No5c301.02$14 inLost-$14.04746.8%5 W · 69 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick5cpaid-10%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed No6c300$18 inLost-$182781.8%5 W · 273 L-9.2wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-72.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe061…93f9backed No6c300$17 inLost-$16.61164.3%5 W · 111 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick6cpaid-31.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6814…4d2dbacked No7c252.4$17 inLost-$16.78901.1%1 W · 89 L-4.3wins-0.05per pick6cpaid-51.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed No20c249.99$50 inLost-$49.921,21817.8%217 W · 1,001 L-124.0wins-0.10per pick28cpaid-50.6%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed No5c200$10 inLost-$102042.9%6 W · 198 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick5cpaid-51.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2d61…1fa7backed No19c199.99$38 inLost-$381816.7%3 W · 15 L-2.8wins-0.15per pick32cpaid-73.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7e83…30dabacked Yes77c188.61$145 inWon+$43.382100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+52.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4b0f…840ebacked Yes80c139.25$111 inWon+$27.85633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-48.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3a56…387cbacked No19c110$21 inLost-$20.65242.3%22 W · 30 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-12.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa7cf…eaffbacked Yes75c100$75 inWon+$25450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed No19c95.42$18 inLost-$18.2748414%68 W · 416 L-39.3wins-0.08per pick22cpaid-43.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed No24c70.38$17 inLost-$16.6920841.8%87 W · 121 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe5e8…76a1backed Yes78c64.1$50 inWon+$14.15151%26 W · 25 L+1.9wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-8.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x564f…7026backed Yes79c63.29$50 inWon+$13.294845.8%22 W · 26 L+2.1wins+0.04per pick41cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6680…c738backed Yes80c50.31$40 inWon+$10.3110544.8%47 W · 58 L+2.7wins+0.03per pick42cpaid-12.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3a59…c2b6backed Yes75c26.79$20 inWon+$6.62556%14 W · 11 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-21.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xefac…c9a1backed Yes78c25$20 inWon+$5.548236.3%175 W · 307 L+8.4wins+0.02per pick35cpaid-9.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x58c8…0300backed Yes74c23.09$17 inWon+$68345.8%38 W · 45 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-9.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.