TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xa7cf…eaff

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
73
Categories scored
12
Categories below 50
7

Best Category: Middle East, grading 54 out of 100 (+0.04 per pick).

Best Category Middle East at 54 out of 100; worst NHL at 46.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT2958.6%17 W · 12 L+1.7wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+16.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 29 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$35
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT+567.1%+$225.97
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Will Brazil win on 2026-07-05?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+125.7%+$18.85
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2026, EDT+70.5%+$10.57
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 28, 2026, EDT+96.6%+$14.49
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 26, 2026, EDT+56.7%+$11.35
Will France win on 2026-06-26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 26, 2026, EDT+63.9%+$9.59
Will United States win on 2026-06-25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT+38.9%+$7.78
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT+53.8%+$10.77
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$35Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT+56.3%+$19.69
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT+56.3%+$16.88
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 20, 2026, EDT+53.8%+$16.15
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 18, 2026, EDT+68.7%+$27.48
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$36Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 18, 2026, EDT+40.8%+$14.5
Will England win on 2026-06-17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT+75.4%+$11.32
Will France win on 2026-06-16?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$44Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 16, 2026, EDT+63.4%+$28.04
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT+78.6%+$11.79
Showing 25 of 29 picks, newest first.
NHL Inactivelast resolved Feb 5, 2026, EST2339.1%9 W · 14 L-1.6wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-25.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
NHL — the 23 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Oilers vs. Flamesbacked Oilers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 5, 2026, EST-100%-$70
Kraken vs. Ducksbacked Ducks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$51Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 4, 2026, EST+39.1%+$20.11
Maple Leafs vs. Oilersbacked Oilers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 4, 2026, EST-100%-$27.8
Maple Leafs vs. Flamesbacked Maple Leafs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$120Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST+28.1%+$33.69
Red Wings vs. Avalanchebacked Avalanche · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST-100%-$37.96
Canadiens vs. Wildbacked Wild · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$83Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST+91.4%+$75.82
Golden Knights vs. Ducksbacked Golden Knights · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$47Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 2, 2026, EST-100%-$47
Wild vs. Oilersbacked Oilers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$65Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$65.5
Sharks vs. Flamesbacked Sharks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST-100%-$22
Jets vs. Panthersbacked Panthers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST-100%-$25
Ducks vs. Oilersbacked Ducks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 27, 2026, EST-100%-$35
Capitals vs. Flamesbacked Flames · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 24, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Flyers vs. Avalanchebacked Avalanche · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 24, 2026, EST-100%-$30
Red Wings vs. Wildbacked Red Wings · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 23, 2026, EST-100%-$30
Flyers vs. Utahbacked Flyers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$25
Ducks vs. Avalanchebacked Ducks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+100%+$25
Devils vs. Oilersbacked Oilers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$75Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2026, EST-100%-$75
Blues vs. Oilersbacked Oilers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$80Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 19, 2026, EST+63.9%+$51.15
Oilers vs. Canucksbacked Oilers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$75Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 18, 2026, EST+61.3%+$45.97
Canadiens vs. Senatorsbacked Canadiens · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$63Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 18, 2026, EST+187%+$117.79
Ducks vs. Kingsbacked Kings · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 17, 2026, EST-100%-$50
Predators vs. Avalanchebacked Predators · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 17, 2026, EST+147.2%+$58.86
Golden Knights vs. Kingsbacked Golden Knights · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 15, 2026, EST+92.3%+$36.92
All 23 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Feb 1, 2026, EST4100%4 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+39.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
Middle East — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Movies Inactivelast resolved Mar 17, 2026, EDT450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Movies — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Feb 15, 2026, EST450%2 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-19.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
Ncaa Basketball — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ncaa Basketball, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NFL Inactivelast resolved Feb 9, 2026, EST2100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+74.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
NFL — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$191Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST+88.5%+$169.11
Rams vs. Seahawksbacked Seahawks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$58Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 26, 2026, EST+59.8%+$34.97
All 2 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
AI — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Artemis II launch by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$108Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$108.25
Will Artemis II launch by February 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$31.8
All 2 picks, newest first.
Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Feb 1, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Christian Menefee win TX-18 Special Election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$49Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+42.9%+$21
All 1 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Feb 8, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
World Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will André Ventura win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 8, 2026, EST-100%-$40
All 1 picks, newest first.
Olympics Inactivelast resolved Feb 22, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Olympics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Olympics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Canada win the Men's Ice Hockey gold medal at the 2026 Winter Olympics?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 22, 2026, EST-100%-$20
All 1 picks, newest first.
Music Inactivelast resolved Feb 2, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Music — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Golden (Ejae and Mark Sonnenblick) win Song of the Year at the 68th Annual GRAMMY Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$62Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 2, 2026, EST-100%-$62.15
All 1 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Feb 3, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.72per pick72cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US government shutdown Saturday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST-100%-$100
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.