TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NHL · resolved market

Maple Leafs vs. Flames

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Maple Leafsof Maple Leafs, Flames
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,407,628
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,406,720

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,407,628 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 522 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NHL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa5ea…d96abacked Flames48c500,000$240,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$239,999.8210840.7%44 W · 64 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd0b4…fed6backed Maple Leafs52c250,000$130,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119,999.9115953.5%85 W · 74 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick54cpaid+1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Maple Leafs52c234,950$122,174 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112,77679350.1%397 W · 396 L-11.5wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-3.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x68dd…f0b2backed Flames49c149,926$72,787 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72,786.725449.2%125 W · 129 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaa07…2125backed Maple Leafs52c82,937$42,957 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39,980.341,07049.9%534 W · 536 L+22.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcd9b…414dbacked Flames48c73,628$35,105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35,105.284242.9%18 W · 24 L-2.1wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-16.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc257…358ebacked Flames48c70,000$33,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33,60048545.4%220 W · 265 L-7.8wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-6.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6a72…33eebacked Maple Leafs74c61,403$45,681 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,721.851,34554.8%737 W · 608 L+21.0wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5877…d894backed Flames26c50,000$13,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,999.99633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.13per pick47cpaid-41.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xee17…b46ebacked Maple Leafs52c49,000$25,480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23,5201968.4%13 W · 6 L+2.6wins+0.13per pick55cpaid+25.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x3ca2…f813backed Maple Leafs52c42,308$22,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20,307.661100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+92.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb552…94a8backed Maple Leafs52c41,152$21,405 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19,746.5161953.8%333 W · 286 L+13.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+4.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf1f4…544cbacked Flames48c40,119$19,256 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19,255.87757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+8.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc3ea…bb01backed Flames49c30,000$14,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,7003435.3%12 W · 22 L-2.5wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-20.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xac0a…f89ebacked Maple Leafs52c25,000$13,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,0003743.2%16 W · 21 L-2.9wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-14.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0fd6…bb28backed Flames48c23,785$11,417 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,416.9710%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdc87…7ab6backed Maple Leafs51c22,373$11,410 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,962.9656152%292 W · 269 L+7.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe524…d34fbacked Maple Leafs53c21,685$11,517 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,168.355261.5%32 W · 20 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick58cpaid+7.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x20d6…3856backed Maple Leafs52c21,627$11,246 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,380.7626849.6%133 W · 135 L+5.9wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+8.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe2e3…0f47backed Flames48c21,346$10,246 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,245.9710%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xea2b…1fc6backed Maple Leafs52c20,000$10,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,6002445.8%11 W · 13 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdd8e…f023backed Maple Leafs76c19,838$15,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,837.895844.8%26 W · 32 L-6.0wins-0.10per pick55cpaid-22.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Flames48c17,483$8,398 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,397.8461950.1%310 W · 309 L-7.6wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x29ae…4d2cbacked Flames12c17,010$1,967 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,967.497354.8%40 W · 33 L+7.0wins+0.10per pick45cpaid+12.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Maple Leafs52c15,000$7,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,2001,44149.2%709 W · 732 L+6.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Flames46c14,469$6,585 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,584.532,66451.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L+58.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbd09…a188backed Maple Leafs53c13,992$7,416 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,576.4661748.5%299 W · 318 L+0.4wins0.00per pick48cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe90b…5da2backed Flames24c12,739$3,057 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,057.2838748.3%187 W · 200 L+1.6wins0.00per pick48cpaid-6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb7f5…c669backed Maple Leafs52c12,500$6,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,00051045.5%232 W · 278 L-9.3wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6b90…2194backed Maple Leafs52c12,000$6,270 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,729.9815749.7%78 W · 79 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5e6e…be00backed Maple Leafs52c11,129$5,787 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,342.092763%17 W · 10 L+3.3wins+0.12per pick51cpaid+25.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xfce1…9ce7backed Maple Leafs51c10,000$5,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,9006653%35 W · 31 L+3.2wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+11.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xead0…f3babacked Maple Leafs51c10,000$5,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,90032946.8%154 W · 175 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbb66…2f53backed Maple Leafs52c9,615$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,615.388848.9%43 W · 45 L-4.4wins-0.05per pick54cpaid-10.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd3fa…a26cbacked Flames33c9,000$2,970 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,969.9915145%68 W · 83 L-7.3wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-9.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9f13…e0fdbacked Maple Leafs51c8,016$4,088 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,927.7147951.4%246 W · 233 L-5.6wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Flames17c7,774$1,339 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,338.751,30152.6%684 W · 617 L+23.7wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3c7e…a65fbacked Flames37c6,865$2,514 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,513.9860337.5%226 W · 377 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-8.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9c4d…168cbacked Flames47c6,500$3,055 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,054.981,08745.1%490 W · 597 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc49f…9e05backed Maple Leafs52c6,262$3,256 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,005.7626058.8%153 W · 107 L+17.7wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+15%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Flames17c6,148$1,041 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,041.4989636.9%331 W · 565 L-30.9wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-26.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xda5f…2e9bbacked Flames25c5,981$1,481 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,481.426253.2%33 W · 29 L+0.1wins0.00per pick53cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5116…58c4backed Maple Leafs52c5,555$2,889 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,666.475251.7%389 W · 363 L-2.1wins0.00per pick52cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Flames48c5,362$2,565 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,565.031,09250.4%550 W · 542 L+12.7wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x91fd…1cdebacked Maple Leafs51c5,000$2,550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,45013948.2%67 W · 72 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Maple Leafs52c5,000$2,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,40089547%421 W · 474 L-18.0wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x617b…a499backed Maple Leafs51c5,000$2,550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,45022747.6%108 W · 119 L-7.0wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7760…21f0backed Flames48c4,848$2,327 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,327.1121036.2%76 W · 134 L-14.6wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-16.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xca3f…8078backed Flames47c4,348$2,044 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,043.6762249.4%307 W · 315 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x769c…5c05backed Maple Leafs52c4,125$2,145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,980540%2 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-31.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7298…fe8dbacked Flames47c4,043$1,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,90033243.7%145 W · 187 L-16.1wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-9.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3e04…564dbacked Flames47c4,000$1,880 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,8801,89152.4%991 W · 900 L+36.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe7a2…ae70backed Flames48c3,497$1,680 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,679.6612047.5%57 W · 63 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x39d3…9ef0backed Flames47c3,404$1,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,60018641.9%78 W · 108 L-8.5wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-11.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x685d…22d6backed Maple Leafs74c3,249$2,404 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$844.6512552%65 W · 60 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Maple Leafs78c3,225$2,527 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$698.161,35452.6%712 W · 642 L+46.2wins+0.03per pick49cpaid-8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2a36…4121backed Flames49c3,187$1,561 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,561.391947.4%9 W · 10 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x64e9…eb4cbacked Maple Leafs52c3,000$1,545 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,45510848.1%52 W · 56 L-5.4wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-7.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe0db…f44ebacked Maple Leafs51c3,000$1,530 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,47039752.1%207 W · 190 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xed2c…9597backed Maple Leafs52c3,000$1,560 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,44033345.6%152 W · 181 L+0.7wins0.00per pick45cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb6ae…4df8backed Maple Leafs54c2,990$1,612 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,377.6736748%176 W · 191 L-12.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-6.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1624…bf63backed Flames15c2,989$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$450.4139344.8%176 W · 217 L+23.3wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+1.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xce99…637ebacked Flames49c2,980$1,460 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,46026946.1%124 W · 145 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Maple Leafs75c2,928$2,207 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$720.192,75447.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L+11.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid-8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5adf…a5e7backed Maple Leafs52c2,850$1,469 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,381.7163249.5%313 W · 319 L+2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd6f4…0566backed Maple Leafs74c2,836$2,087 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$748.7995049.1%466 W · 484 L+12.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-10.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe2f7…4ec4backed Maple Leafs53c2,825$1,497 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,327.511100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+88.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9870…b9d3backed Maple Leafs54c2,778$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,277.7831550.8%160 W · 155 L-11.6wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-7.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd4da…3175backed Flames48c2,595$1,242 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,241.5628251.8%146 W · 136 L+8.9wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2586…c893backed Flames47c2,200$1,034 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,033.9783652.8%441 W · 395 L+28.9wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1d3a…7b63backed Flames48c2,114$1,015 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,014.7286649.9%432 W · 434 L+1.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x57a8…6933backed Flames48c2,070$994 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$993.638844.6%173 W · 215 L-17.1wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x154b…95dbbacked Flames48c1,959$941 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$940.55837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick44cpaid+11.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8a33…d0e2backed Maple Leafs52c1,914$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$914.01887.5%7 W · 1 L+2.6wins+0.33per pick54cpaid+59.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x46f4…5bc0backed Flames48c1,914$919 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$918.727138%27 W · 44 L-2.6wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-10.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x938e…3fb0backed Flames48c1,850$888 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$888425%1 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.28per pick53cpaid-54.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Flames9c1,841$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$168.2899638.2%380 W · 616 L-10.3wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-12.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4d84…21b1backed Flames47c1,725$814 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$814.1813954%75 W · 64 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-5.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x10d4…d953backed Maple Leafs52c1,650$858 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79244551.2%228 W · 217 L+16.4wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+9.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa877…2e20backed Flames48c1,521$730 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$730.0836349%178 W · 185 L-6.2wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-3.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xebff…70e5backed Flames10c1,500$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.3622728.2%64 W · 163 L-17.6wins-0.08per pick36cpaid-37.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x1064…f153backed Flames48c1,500$720 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7203339.4%13 W · 20 L-3.4wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-9.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5bc4…f44fbacked Maple Leafs52c1,500$780 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72068449.9%341 W · 343 L-3.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2afc…b26dbacked Maple Leafs70c1,453$1,015 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$437.881100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+43.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x96bc…7fb4backed Flames49c1,450$711 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$710.524845.2%112 W · 136 L+9.5wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+9.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf62b…844abacked Maple Leafs76c1,316$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$315.7914654.1%79 W · 67 L-7.9wins-0.05per pick60cpaid-9.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x13a1…d9bcbacked Maple Leafs80c1,240$987 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$253.2157157.8%330 W · 241 L+12.7wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3ed4…620ebacked Maple Leafs52c1,227$638 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$589.029149.5%45 W · 46 L-3.5wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-6.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x661d…4dc6backed Flames26c1,219$312 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$312.343742.3%185 W · 252 L+11.1wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+0.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe2e1…c20abacked Flames25c1,208$306 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$305.7518344.8%82 W · 101 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-9.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xee7e…61bbbacked Maple Leafs53c1,208$640 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$567.5541248.3%199 W · 213 L-5.0wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd622…8b56backed Maple Leafs53c1,200$636 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56410846.3%50 W · 58 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+3.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Flames11c1,125$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.123,70450.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L+105.5wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2eed…85a9backed Maple Leafs67c1,100$737 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3637358.9%43 W · 30 L+4.1wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+14%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x182d…73e9backed Flames49c1,100$539 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53922946.3%106 W · 123 L-5.7wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-5.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6bb3…758ebacked Maple Leafs67c1,096$734 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$361.6817247.7%82 W · 90 L-6.4wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-8.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc070…203abacked Flames49c1,020$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50015252%79 W · 73 L+4.4wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+3.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9719…6ffabacked Flames49c1,020$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5002722.2%6 W · 21 L-5.5wins-0.20per pick42cpaid-49.2%equal weight38-0.10 edge/pick
0x691a…d113backed Flames49c1,020$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50026551.3%136 W · 129 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x977a…f2cabacked Flames1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101,1632.3%27 W · 1,136 L-10.7wins-0.01per pick3cpaid-87.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.