NHL · resolved market
Maple Leafs vs. Flames: O/U 5.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf668c2742b26be9552c1498d7ad60efd82c56f51b5f68ae03d16771ebe767e1a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $38,329
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,249
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,329 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaa07…2125backed Under | 42c | 20,000$8,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,399.98 | 1,070 | 49.9%534 W · 536 L | +22.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebc0…fa41backed Over | 58c | 8,763$5,082 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,680.41 | 170 | 57.6%98 W · 72 L | +15.0wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Over | 58c | 5,754$3,338 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,416.89 | 1,092 | 50.4%550 W · 542 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35ac…92a7backed Under | 42c | 5,000$2,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,099.98 | 275 | 48.7%134 W · 141 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Over | 58c | 4,207$2,440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,767.44 | 1,948 | 49.4%962 W · 986 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Over | 77c | 3,443$2,662 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$781.04 | 588 | 41.8%246 W · 342 L | -20.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Over | 58c | 3,000$1,740 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,260 | 866 | 49.9%432 W · 434 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33dd…ef8abacked Under | 42c | 3,000$1,260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,260 | 48 | 41.7%20 W · 28 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Over | 58c | 2,586$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,086.2 | 1,230 | 53.7%661 W · 569 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x646e…294dbacked Over | 58c | 1,759$1,020 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$738.62 | 57 | 59.6%34 W · 23 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Over | 58c | 1,448$840 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$608.16 | 831 | 49.5%411 W · 420 L | -9.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Over | 46c | 1,021$469 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$551.86 | 1,384 | 47.1%652 W · 732 L | +25.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Under | 42c | 1,000$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420 | 919 | 45.6%419 W · 500 L | -27.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 46c | 989.85$458 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$458.48 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 50c | 791.95$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399.63 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 58c | 710.35$412 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$298.46 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Over | 58c | 517.24$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.24 | 530 | 50.6%268 W · 262 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ad5…37b9backed Under | 9c | 407.4$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.45 | 72 | 30.6%22 W · 50 L | +14.5wins | +0.20per pick | 10cpaid | +218.9%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x7d77…9dd7backed Under | 9c | 407.4$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.45 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc345…2c35backed Under | 39c | 384.97$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa676…a4c5backed Under | 4c | 358.68$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.97 | 134 | 37.3%50 W · 84 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x20d6…3856backed Under | 42c | 314.83$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.23 | 268 | 49.6%133 W · 135 L | +5.9wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc615…c7aebacked Under | 40c | 252.98$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.2 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 26c | 246.3$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.68 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 17c | 213.59$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.55 | 1,846 | 57.2%1,055 W · 791 L | +85.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…f491backed Over | 58c | 200$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 599 | 50.4%302 W · 297 L | +20.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 10c | 196$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 2,112 | 42.9%907 W · 1,205 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e51…e4f7backed Over | 58c | 163.18$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.54 | 153 | 49%75 W · 78 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Over | 49c | 145.25$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.79 | 1,107 | 52%576 W · 531 L | +63.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xba5a…344cbacked Over | 70c | 142.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.93 | 121 | 52.9%64 W · 57 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…54d2backed Over | 58c | 140$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.8 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -22%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x785f…e3d9backed Under | 42c | 117.28$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.26 | 262 | 43.5%114 W · 148 L | -9.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xafb8…505cbacked Under | 43c | 111.36$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.99 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d84…21b1backed Under | 51c | 107.87$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.29 | 139 | 54%75 W · 64 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x48cf…c7dfbacked Under | 58c | 103.45$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Under | 42c | 101$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.42 | 849 | 53.8%457 W · 392 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3ce…6b46backed Over | 40c | 100$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3080…f041backed Over | 47c | 99.4$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.78 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30ad…6a69backed Over | 58c | 86.21$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.21 | 231 | 58%134 W · 97 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…06c5backed Under | 44c | 84.04$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.98 | 68 | 42.6%29 W · 39 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef23…5b60backed Under | 43c | 55$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.65 | 642 | 42.2%271 W · 371 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf30e…b2f1backed Over | 43c | 52.33$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.83 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Under | 42c | 50.87$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.36 | 916 | 53.9%494 W · 422 L | +39.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c16…4b37backed Under | 65c | 50$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 218 | 56.4%123 W · 95 L | +10.1wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Over | 35c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 1,140 | 51.5%587 W · 553 L | +40.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 70c | 50$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 629 | 51.2%322 W · 307 L | +18.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe88b…fa5abacked Over | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 93 | 50.5%47 W · 46 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe624…2928backed Under | 43c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 226 | 55.3%125 W · 101 L | +17.7wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x216b…fe46backed Over | 54c | 49.99$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.83 | 111 | 53.2%59 W · 52 L | +5.7wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Over | 58c | 49.99$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.23 | 665 | 52%346 W · 319 L | +8.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x778e…ccd1backed Over | 58c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 219 | 51.6%113 W · 106 L | -8.4wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Over | 58c | 34.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.58 | 451 | 51.2%231 W · 220 L | +16.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f26…8984backed Over | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21c2…6749backed Under | 59c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 345 | 38.6%133 W · 212 L | -15.3wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -20%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Over | 42c | 29.53$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.13 | 740 | 54.5%403 W · 337 L | +22.6wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3fbc…9cf6backed Over | 56c | 29.04$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.78 | 304 | 47.4%144 W · 160 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbce3…40f3backed Over | 58c | 25.86$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.86 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +2.2wins | +0.16per pick | 56cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb858…7dc3backed Over | 60c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 128 | 55.5%71 W · 57 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Maple Leafs vs. Flames: O/U 5.5this page
- Maple Leafs vs. FlamesMaple Leafs won
- Maple Leafs vs. Flames: O/U 6.5Under won
- Spread: Maple Leafs (-1.5)Maple Leafs won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.