NHL · resolved market
Spread: Maple Leafs (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x70b26d86575fbff2c2c387d795ef31278585fb982b2ce78b928e6975ca0e8ff3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Maple Leafsof Maple Leafs, Flames
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,048
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,554
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,048 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd95c…f1d7backed Flames | 59c | 16,145$9,530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,530.12 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Maple Leafs | 41c | 15,166$6,218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,948.03 | 1,441 | 49.2%709 W · 732 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Flames | 58c | 5,716$3,340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,339.69 | 588 | 41.8%246 W · 342 L | -20.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x20d6…3856backed Maple Leafs | 42c | 3,013$1,266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,747.7 | 268 | 49.6%133 W · 135 L | +5.9wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Flames | 71c | 2,000$1,420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,420 | 210 | 36.2%76 W · 134 L | -14.6wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcf6c…7e66backed Maple Leafs | 29c | 1,343$389 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$953.53 | 159 | 49.7%79 W · 80 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb3…758ebacked Maple Leafs | 43c | 1,293$556 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$737.25 | 172 | 47.7%82 W · 90 L | -6.4wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Flames | 51c | 1,134$573 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$573.06 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Maple Leafs | 41c | 979$397 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$582.09 | 1,202 | 60.1%722 W · 480 L | +51.9wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +15%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x70cf…f6cebacked Maple Leafs | 32c | 915.63$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$622.63 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Maple Leafs | 49c | 757.48$373 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$384.44 | 1,107 | 52%576 W · 531 L | +63.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Maple Leafs | 32c | 359$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.12 | 1,948 | 49.4%962 W · 986 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf2…d280backed Maple Leafs | 29c | 344.83$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.83 | 138 | 45.7%63 W · 75 L | -5.4wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5b…a569backed Flames | 71c | 338.03$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 226 | 55.8%126 W · 100 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Maple Leafs | 29c | 268.2$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.44 | 1,679 | 54.4%914 W · 765 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Flames | 68c | 256.29$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.59 | 1,230 | 53.7%661 W · 569 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Maple Leafs | 33c | 250$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.5 | 868 | 52.4%455 W · 413 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Flames | 67c | 243.3$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.01 | 916 | 53.9%494 W · 422 L | +39.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Maple Leafs | 29c | 235.4$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.13 | 88 | 37.5%33 W · 55 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Maple Leafs | 50c | 225$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.5 | 1,054 | 42.5%448 W · 606 L | -25.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed Flames | 71c | 211.27$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 811 | 57.2%464 W · 347 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…bcb3backed Maple Leafs | 32c | 187.5$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.5 | 403 | 40.9%165 W · 238 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb82d…5d1ebacked Maple Leafs | 30c | 165$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.5 | 45 | 57.8%26 W · 19 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Flames | 53c | 151.36$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.96 | 2,112 | 42.9%907 W · 1,205 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb87…88d1backed Maple Leafs | 30c | 146$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.2 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf104…d34cbacked Flames | 72c | 122.6$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.9 | 94 | 40.4%38 W · 56 L | -6.0wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0196…b9c3backed Maple Leafs | 33c | 100.35$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.55 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…d8debacked Maple Leafs | 38c | 98.74$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.09 | 295 | 53.6%158 W · 137 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Maple Leafs | 37c | 94.65$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.21 | 519 | 49.5%257 W · 262 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1cb…fb77backed Maple Leafs | 50c | 84.03$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.91 | 60 | 40%24 W · 36 L | -8.6wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4d84…21b1backed Flames | 63c | 77.57$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.19 | 139 | 54%75 W · 64 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf628…ba6fbacked Maple Leafs | 42c | 75.22$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.66 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +2.7wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3c04…2e2dbacked Flames | 71c | 71.83$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 542 | 60.3%327 W · 215 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Maple Leafs | 42c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 1,028 | 53.2%547 W · 481 L | +21.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cfe…ed69backed Maple Leafs | 29c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.5 | 418 | 47.8%200 W · 218 L | +11.3wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Maple Leafs | 29c | 47.4$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.65 | 607 | 41%249 W · 358 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b37…d7e9backed Flames | 70c | 42.8$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 83 | 51.8%43 W · 40 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Maple Leafs | 55c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.1 | 421 | 44.4%187 W · 234 L | -28.0wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -17%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ca…3d64backed Maple Leafs | 29c | 39.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.39 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +110%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6760…3ad4backed Flames | 58c | 39.49$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e2f…1adfbacked Flames | 57c | 36.84$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x859a…1ccebacked Flames | 70c | 35$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77ec…4f9cbacked Flames | 70c | 35$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -2.5wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x09db…7384backed Flames | 70c | 35$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f33…8f17backed Flames | 70c | 35$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c83…6f40backed Flames | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 191 | 41.9%80 W · 111 L | -9.7wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5253…b898backed Flames | 70c | 34$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.8 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd18b…876dbacked Maple Leafs | 46c | 32.46$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.46 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36c9…3f9fbacked Flames | 70c | 31$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.7 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -2.5wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3100…9bc9backed Maple Leafs | 42c | 30.13$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.48 | 118 | 55.9%66 W · 52 L | +7.4wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbba…e95bbacked Flames | 70c | 30$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Flames | 71c | 29.58$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 690 | 61.6%425 W · 265 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc07…e9f2backed Flames | 70c | 29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -2.4wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52cc…9998backed Flames | 70c | 28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21c2…6749backed Maple Leafs | 42c | 27$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.66 | 345 | 38.6%133 W · 212 L | -15.3wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -20%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x778e…ccd1backed Flames | 68c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 219 | 51.6%113 W · 106 L | -8.4wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15b7…7fd0backed Flames | 70c | 19$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Maple Leafs (-1.5)this page
- Maple Leafs vs. FlamesMaple Leafs won
- Maple Leafs vs. Flames: O/U 5.5Over won
- Maple Leafs vs. Flames: O/U 6.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.