Tennis · resolved market
ITF Nova Gorica: Radovan Michalik vs John Hallquist Lithen
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7753ca313112480e34a87316e252572f4f5479e43d69a62de5cad7e8682401c4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Radovan Michalikof Radovan Michalik, John Hallquist Lithen
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,081
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,334
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,081 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6318…46b1backed Radovan Michalik | 20c | 1,093$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$869.18 | 5,261 | 28.8%1,514 W · 3,747 L | -19.4wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked John Hallquist Lithen | 79c | 607.18$481 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$481.09 | 4,241 | 52.6%2,232 W · 2,009 L | +65.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed John Hallquist Lithen | 8c | 415.72$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.2 | 1,379 | 16.4%226 W · 1,153 L | -108.5wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Radovan Michalik | 6c | 271.63$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.56 | 6,439 | 54.4%3,502 W · 2,937 L | +285.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc369…b1ccbacked John Hallquist Lithen | 80c | 257.5$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206 | 392 | 54.1%212 W · 180 L | -7.9wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked John Hallquist Lithen | 75c | 224.3$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.6 | 6,449 | 46.3%2,987 W · 3,462 L | -42.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Radovan Michalik | 11c | 206.22$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.36 | 2,343 | 51.6%1,209 W · 1,134 L | +95.2wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x81a9…df08backed John Hallquist Lithen | 80c | 140$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 265 | 46.4%123 W · 142 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Radovan Michalik | 19c | 107.49$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.07 | 3,874 | 45.4%1,758 W · 2,116 L | -39.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8e…08c1backed Radovan Michalik | 59c | 88$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.2 | 2,118 | 55.9%1,185 W · 933 L | +40.1wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Radovan Michalik | 27c | 82.63$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.6 | 223 | 37.7%84 W · 139 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf7…7736backed Radovan Michalik | 25c | 65$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.83 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +3.3wins | +0.16per pick | 37cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8a80…11c5backed John Hallquist Lithen | 73c | 60.53$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.95 | 739 | 51.7%382 W · 357 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e2c…d730backed Radovan Michalik | 22c | 60$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.98 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +116.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed John Hallquist Lithen | 76c | 52.33$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.03 | 6,720 | 36.9%2,479 W · 4,241 L | -95.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a96…b71dbacked John Hallquist Lithen | 79c | 43.48$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.2 | 70 | 41.4%29 W · 41 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x747f…f2d7backed John Hallquist Lithen | 80c | 34.79$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.83 | 901 | 52.3%471 W · 430 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe69c…7f9bbacked John Hallquist Lithen | 66c | 23.39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 171 | 68.4%117 W · 54 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 65cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked John Hallquist Lithen | 56c | 20.89$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.66 | 5,416 | 48.6%2,633 W · 2,783 L | +14.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb71e…641abacked John Hallquist Lithen | 80c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 337 | 51.9%175 W · 162 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d10…b3d0backed John Hallquist Lithen | 79c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 821 | 59.4%488 W · 333 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe01…b45dbacked John Hallquist Lithen | 80c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 223 | 77.6%173 W · 50 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 77cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked John Hallquist Lithen | 73c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.51 | 1,767 | 52.1%920 W · 847 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb37…189abacked John Hallquist Lithen | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 214 | 51.9%111 W · 103 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x061a…5a89backed John Hallquist Lithen | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 521 | 57%297 W · 224 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14e7…a32cbacked John Hallquist Lithen | 78c | 16.39$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.79 | 1,349 | 49.8%672 W · 677 L | -6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b46…ed0dbacked John Hallquist Lithen | 79c | 15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.85 | 324 | 52.5%170 W · 154 L | -15.3wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -11%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77fa…313dbacked John Hallquist Lithen | 76c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.43 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 77cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x26c2…0cdfbacked John Hallquist Lithen | 77c | 12.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 743 | 46.3%344 W · 399 L | -28.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.