TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Mls · resolved market

Spread: Portland Timbers (-2.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Real Salt Lakeof Portland Timbers, Real Salt Lake
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$5,726
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$5,915

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,726 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 8 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Mls
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x204f…5e14backed Portland Timbers9c806.44$73 inLost-$72.543,01243.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L-29.7wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-9.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2d6a…8addbacked Portland Timbers9c743.46$67 inLost-$66.9172850.7%369 W · 359 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf73…0215backed Portland Timbers9c733.95$66 inLost-$66.0670249.7%349 W · 353 L-7.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x90fe…b7b8backed Portland Timbers9c342.75$31 inLost-$30.851931.6%6 W · 13 L-1.4wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-22.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x57cc…0fa7backed Portland Timbers7c285.22$20 inLost-$19.9710628.3%30 W · 76 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick26cpaid-15.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x83d9…10d9backed Portland Timbers9c177.78$16 inLost-$1611848.3%57 W · 61 L+3.6wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+2.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x13f7…85d5backed Portland Timbers9c139.11$12 inLost-$11.8510612.3%13 W · 93 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick14cpaid-19.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1010…d793backed Portland Timbers9c120$11 inLost-$10.814349%70 W · 73 L+4.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+2.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.