Mls · resolved market
Spread: Real Salt Lake (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcce46569521b77b58439d2c895076d9ae6b9639fb8c78fda8a40b6d7303753cf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Portland Timbersof Real Salt Lake, Portland Timbers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,260
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,215
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,260 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc163…aed8backed Real Salt Lake | 33c | 4,509$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Portland Timbers | 69c | 1,410$967 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$443.3 | 526 | 39.5%208 W · 318 L | -11.9wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Portland Timbers | 64c | 1,229$784 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$444.14 | 1,262 | 45.2%571 W · 691 L | -28.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c6…7b39backed Real Salt Lake | 12c | 317.98$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.16 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +70.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57cc…0fa7backed Portland Timbers | 73c | 238.89$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.5 | 106 | 28.3%30 W · 76 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Portland Timbers | 73c | 234.96$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.71 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Portland Timbers | 45c | 200$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110 | 128 | 39.8%51 W · 77 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Portland Timbers | 74c | 198.89$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.03 | 802 | 49.8%399 W · 403 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6e…f544backed Real Salt Lake | 18c | 146.13$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.3 | 103 | 38.8%40 W · 63 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1010…d793backed Real Salt Lake | 18c | 120$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 143 | 49%70 W · 73 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee4d…5413backed Portland Timbers | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.26per pick | 57cpaid | +72%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9a4c…1defbacked Real Salt Lake | 40c | 93.75$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.16per pick | 39cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Portland Timbers | 70c | 90.81$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.12 | 820 | 44.5%365 W · 455 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Portland Timbers | 80c | 59.8$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.96 | 233 | 50.6%118 W · 115 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8543…ff1bbacked Portland Timbers | 76c | 25.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.07 | 77 | 57.1%44 W · 33 L | +4.5wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Real Salt Lake (-1.5)this page
- Portland Timbers vs. Real Salt Lake: 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- Portland Timbers vs. Real Salt Lake: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Portland Timbers vs. Real Salt Lake: Both Teams to Score in First HalfNo won
- Portland Timbers vs. Real Salt Lake: O/U 0.5Over won
- Portland Timbers vs. Real Salt Lake: O/U 1.5Over won
- Portland Timbers vs. Real Salt Lake: O/U 2.5Over won
- Portland Timbers vs. Real Salt Lake: O/U 3.5Under won
- Portland Timbers vs. Real Salt Lake: O/U 4.5Under won
- Portland Timbers vs. Real Salt Lake: O/U 5.5Under won
- Portland Timbers vs. Real Salt Lake: Portland Timbers O/U 0.5Over won
- Portland Timbers vs. Real Salt Lake: Real Salt Lake O/U 1.5Under won
- Portland Timbers vs. Real Salt Lake: Real Salt Lake O/U 2.5Under won
- Spread: Portland Timbers (-1.5)Real Salt Lake won
- Spread: Portland Timbers (-2.5)Real Salt Lake won
- Spread: Real Salt Lake (-2.5)Portland Timbers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.