Mls · resolved market
Portland Timbers vs. Real Salt Lake: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0d827f3f90cc0569031a061a9546c0604fb3504bc97b162c476d9f74aa0d11b2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,846
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,668
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,846 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Under | 37c | 6,475$2,417 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,417.22 | 989 | 45.4%449 W · 540 L | -23.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 66c | 3,766$2,472 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,294.2 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x191f…4a8dbacked Over | 60c | 2,911$1,753 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,158.2 | 146 | 52.1%76 W · 70 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d3d…6039backed Under | 39c | 2,563$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 60c | 2,529$1,527 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,001.93 | 681 | 50.8%346 W · 335 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Over | 71c | 1,316$928 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$387.5 | 1,444 | 36.8%532 W · 912 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Under | 30c | 1,238$369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$369.28 | 702 | 49.7%349 W · 353 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 34c | 1,000$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340 | 1,270 | 48%610 W · 660 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 62c | 863.58$533 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$331.01 | 993 | 40.1%398 W · 595 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Under | 28c | 841$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.48 | 355 | 50.4%179 W · 176 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 63c | 721.44$451 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.02 | 1,880 | 36.6%688 W · 1,192 L | -7.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffd…7821backed Under | 3c | 456$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.46 | 240 | 46.7%112 W · 128 L | -15.4wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked Under | 32c | 406$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.84 | 444 | 47.3%210 W · 234 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ee…9e81backed Under | 24c | 369.85$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.9 | 273 | 44.3%121 W · 152 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x912f…b25bbacked Under | 12c | 338.44$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.96 | 70 | 38.6%27 W · 43 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 19c | 331.06$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.34 | 802 | 49.8%399 W · 403 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a4c…1defbacked Under | 29c | 312.97$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.76 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.16per pick | 39cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked Under | 30c | 266.34$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.5 | 366 | 46.7%171 W · 195 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8543…ff1bbacked Over | 67c | 225.15$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.09 | 77 | 57.1%44 W · 33 L | +4.5wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Under | 28c | 222$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.16 | 333 | 46.8%156 W · 177 L | -14.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 65c | 201.96$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.7 | 967 | 56.8%549 W · 418 L | +73.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Under | 34c | 191.55$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.13 | 264 | 50%132 W · 132 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Under | 18c | 189$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.66 | 304 | 44.1%134 W · 170 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 22c | 180$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.51 | 1,009 | 46.2%466 W · 543 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x789c…0d10backed Over | 62c | 174.45$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.1 | 126 | 50.8%64 W · 62 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47c5…46c3backed Over | 50c | 168.4$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.5 | 35 | 28.6%10 W · 25 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc8e…944ebacked Over | 61c | 163.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.93 | 56 | 76.8%43 W · 13 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 74cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed Under | 35c | 157.24$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.62 | 352 | 47.7%168 W · 184 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Under | 30c | 155.33$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.3 | 728 | 50.7%369 W · 359 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6ee…b3aabacked Under | 49c | 154.78$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.84 | 21 | 71.4%15 W · 6 L | +4.3wins | +0.20per pick | 51cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9900…5cc9backed Over | 59c | 149.83$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.97 | 69 | 44.9%31 W · 38 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c31…5380backed Over | 72c | 135.36$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.16 | 19 | 94.7%18 W · 1 L | +5.8wins | +0.31per pick | 64cpaid | +51.3%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Over | 79c | 120$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 362 | 47.2%171 W · 191 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47c9…2038backed Under | 30c | 100.65$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.82 | 92 | 53.3%49 W · 43 L | +7.6wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…4d70backed Over | 70c | 89.3$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.07 | 294 | 60.5%178 W · 116 L | +36.5wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Over | 62c | 88.25$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.93 | 120 | 58.3%70 W · 50 L | +6.7wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x056b…5a03backed Under | 31c | 87.19$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.38 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x293b…7a58backed Under | 29c | 82.1$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.81 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 40c | 73.97$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.59 | 1,262 | 45.2%571 W · 691 L | -28.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 34c | 71$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.14 | 1,301 | 51.2%666 W · 635 L | -19.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe84f…b777backed Over | 62c | 70.07$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.69 | 123 | 56.9%70 W · 53 L | +4.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…986cbacked Under | 50c | 64.33$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.31 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +53.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…aa5abacked Over | 68c | 64.16$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.61 | 126 | 67.5%85 W · 41 L | +11.2wins | +0.09per pick | 59cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc785…4ef2backed Under | 36c | 59$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.11 | 172 | 44.8%77 W · 95 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0598…3d83backed Over | 53c | 56.6$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.6 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…2b06backed Over | 69c | 55.24$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.9 | 311 | 58.5%182 W · 129 L | +27.0wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1399…48c8backed Over | 67c | 53$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.49 | 205 | 54.6%112 W · 93 L | +17.1wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xce8b…738abacked Over | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.19per pick | 37cpaid | +111.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6770…c3bdbacked Under | 35c | 47$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.21 | 45 | 31.1%14 W · 31 L | -5.9wins | -0.13per pick | 44cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc8cd…ed53backed Over | 71c | 42.66$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.37 | 29 | 79.3%23 W · 6 L | +3.0wins | +0.10per pick | 69cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbbc8…4f5bbacked Under | 39c | 38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.82 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +1.8wins | +0.10per pick | 37cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ed3…0a22backed Under | 32c | 35.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 169 | 55.6%94 W · 75 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e0…7eecbacked Under | 40c | 33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.22 | 314 | 46.5%146 W · 168 L | -10.7wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6cf6…c3f6backed Over | 66c | 31.82$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.82 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecdb…c4c7backed Under | 32c | 31.12$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.06 | 107 | 53.3%57 W · 50 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Under | 34c | 30.61$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.41 | 803 | 58%466 W · 337 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Over | 71c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 169 | 48.5%82 W · 87 L | -7.6wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cbb…3ed1backed Over | 75c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.14per pick | 55cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f34…ed6abacked Under | 49c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed Over | 72c | 29.16$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.22 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -3.6wins | -0.21per pick | 63cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcb11…9845backed Over | 69c | 29.16$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.16 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29d4…5d18backed Over | 62c | 26.22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.08 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed Over | 69c | 22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.82 | 145 | 60.7%88 W · 57 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae4…7c46backed Over | 69c | 20.47$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.41 | 46 | 73.9%34 W · 12 L | +6.9wins | +0.15per pick | 59cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Over | 59c | 20.11$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.25 | 128 | 39.8%51 W · 77 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd77d…b11dbacked Over | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 54cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4993…553fbacked Over | 66c | 19.13$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.45 | 59 | 54.2%32 W · 27 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe0a…b267backed Over | 61c | 17.41$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.87 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +12%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d5f…1171backed Over | 67c | 16.52$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.52 | 96 | 54.2%52 W · 44 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0eaf…1f76backed Over | 73c | 16.44$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.44 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Over | 67c | 16.34$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.45 | 149 | 57.7%86 W · 63 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d2…d67bbacked Over | 76c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.84 | 309 | 57%176 W · 133 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4db…e401backed Over | 63c | 15.89$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.88 | 21 | 76.2%16 W · 5 L | +5.5wins | +0.26per pick | 50cpaid | +63.7%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xcbce…91b2backed Over | 70c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.55 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +45.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a97…90b1backed Over | 68c | 14.91$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.77 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Over | 78c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.08 | 443 | 50.6%224 W · 219 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Portland Timbers vs. Real Salt Lake: O/U 2.5this page
- Portland Timbers vs. Real Salt Lake: 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- Portland Timbers vs. Real Salt Lake: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Portland Timbers vs. Real Salt Lake: Both Teams to Score in First HalfNo won
- Portland Timbers vs. Real Salt Lake: O/U 0.5Over won
- Portland Timbers vs. Real Salt Lake: O/U 1.5Over won
- Portland Timbers vs. Real Salt Lake: O/U 3.5Under won
- Portland Timbers vs. Real Salt Lake: O/U 4.5Under won
- Portland Timbers vs. Real Salt Lake: O/U 5.5Under won
- Portland Timbers vs. Real Salt Lake: Portland Timbers O/U 0.5Over won
- Portland Timbers vs. Real Salt Lake: Real Salt Lake O/U 1.5Under won
- Portland Timbers vs. Real Salt Lake: Real Salt Lake O/U 2.5Under won
- Spread: Portland Timbers (-1.5)Real Salt Lake won
- Spread: Portland Timbers (-2.5)Real Salt Lake won
- Spread: Real Salt Lake (-1.5)Portland Timbers won
- Spread: Real Salt Lake (-2.5)Portland Timbers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.