TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Mls · resolved market

Spread: Portland Timbers (-1.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Real Salt Lakeof Portland Timbers, Real Salt Lake
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$26,257
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$26,054

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,257 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Mls
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2a69…d2f7backed Real Salt Lake70c4,928$3,426 inWon+$1,502.321,44436.8%532 W · 912 L-12.0wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-17.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Portland Timbers8c2,745$212 inLost-$212.471,88036.6%688 W · 1,192 L-7.3wins0.00per pick37cpaid-8.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0346…52a5backed Portland Timbers24c2,206$532 inLost-$532.1498945.4%449 W · 540 L-23.9wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-13.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe85d…ad4bbacked Portland Timbers16c1,991$313 inLost-$313.374413.6%6 W · 38 L-2.0wins-0.05per pick18cpaid-46.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Portland Timbers14c1,180$165 inLost-$165.483,01243.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L-29.7wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-9.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Real Salt Lake40c1,116$447 inWon+$668.971,26245.2%571 W · 691 L-28.1wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-21.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Real Salt Lake54c860.39$465 inWon+$395.7868150.8%346 W · 335 L+12.6wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x52d9…fb1abacked Real Salt Lake52c702.45$365 inWon+$337.1871443.7%312 W · 402 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-6.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Real Salt Lake73c531.37$386 inWon+$144.9827058.9%159 W · 111 L+5.2wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2fba…fd69backed Real Salt Lake15c507.04$76 inWon+$430.98633.3%2 W · 4 L+1.2wins+0.20per pick14cpaid+288.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x57cc…0fa7backed Portland Timbers16c281.19$46 inLost-$46.0810628.3%30 W · 76 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick26cpaid-15.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Real Salt Lake18c240$42 inWon+$19812839.8%51 W · 77 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-19.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xddb6…b9b3backed Portland Timbers21c189$40 inLost-$40.3135247.7%168 W · 184 L-6.3wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-10.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x17d7…9e1ebacked Real Salt Lake76c160.08$122 inWon+$37.633650%18 W · 18 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+15%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked Real Salt Lake80c153.65$123 inWon+$31.180249.8%399 W · 403 L+8.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x629d…756cbacked Portland Timbers21c136.71$29 inLost-$28.8144447.3%210 W · 234 L-1.6wins0.00per pick48cpaid-10.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x775d…6bebbacked Portland Timbers23c78.69$18 inLost-$17.7236646.7%171 W · 195 L-7.7wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-13.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Portland Timbers21c69.26$15 inLost-$14.7487154.6%476 W · 395 L+34.2wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+4.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Real Salt Lake64c67.53$43 inWon+$24.581,00946.2%466 W · 543 L+11.2wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-7.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed Portland Timbers19c59.79$11 inLost-$11.3623350.6%118 W · 115 L-4.4wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcb11…9845backed Portland Timbers47c42.54$20 inLost-$19.981050%5 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-12.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbbc8…4f5bbacked Real Salt Lake65c36$23 inWon+$12.541747.1%8 W · 9 L+1.8wins+0.10per pick37cpaid+19.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc1fd…10ccbacked Real Salt Lake58c17.43$10 inWon+$7.322676.9%20 W · 6 L+4.1wins+0.16per pick61cpaid+30.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.