Mls · resolved market
Portland Timbers vs. Real Salt Lake: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6a0cf2ba56023d9af8ea3d5f787c464ea8186b2ac19a21c9cd2b8e55c30268a7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,473
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,526
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,473 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 9c | 3,460$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325.11 | 993 | 40.1%398 W · 595 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Over | 15c | 2,412$354 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$354.14 | 270 | 58.9%159 W · 111 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 19c | 1,525$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.34 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 17c | 1,252$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.98 | 871 | 54.6%476 W · 395 L | +34.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 1c | 1,186$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.94 | 287 | 21.6%62 W · 225 L | -29.9wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Over | 9c | 1,177$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.19 | 461 | 56.2%259 W · 202 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17d7…9e1ebacked Over | 14c | 548.39$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.36 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +15%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Under | 73c | 512$374 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.24 | 270 | 47%127 W · 143 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x882c…8148backed Over | 32c | 500$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 61 | 24.6%15 W · 46 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3740…a935backed Under | 78c | 500$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110 | 48 | 68.8%33 W · 15 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 65cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Over | 25c | 489.37$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.75 | 915 | 53%485 W · 430 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Under | 69c | 420.97$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.5 | 734 | 38.1%280 W · 454 L | -7.5wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19d8…965abacked Over | 13c | 242.11$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.75 | 86 | 24.4%21 W · 65 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Over | 15c | 182.57$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.07 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…4d70backed Over | 8c | 181.8$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.54 | 294 | 60.5%178 W · 116 L | +36.5wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…2b06backed Over | 8c | 181.8$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.54 | 311 | 58.5%182 W · 129 L | +27.0wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1399…48c8backed Over | 8c | 181.8$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.54 | 205 | 54.6%112 W · 93 L | +17.1wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x789c…0d10backed Over | 32c | 150.97$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.31 | 126 | 50.8%64 W · 62 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14f3…0796backed Over | 16c | 130.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.35 | 53 | 50.9%27 W · 26 L | +4.0wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +53.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 14c | 127.7$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.64 | 989 | 45.4%449 W · 540 L | -23.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc96…2791backed Under | 79c | 126.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.58 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6701…d7d2backed Over | 17c | 126$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.43 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | +5.0wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1010…d793backed Under | 75c | 120$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 143 | 49%70 W · 73 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed Over | 18c | 118$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.24 | 145 | 60.7%88 W · 57 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 24c | 115.74$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.27 | 967 | 56.8%549 W · 418 L | +73.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x259b…a2d3backed Over | 27c | 111.11$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | -6.0wins | -0.24per pick | 40cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x6c27…54f2backed Over | 28c | 107.14$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 38cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d56…1c7dbacked Over | 32c | 93.75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 43 | 23.3%10 W · 33 L | -5.6wins | -0.13per pick | 36cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 72c | 89.18$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.28 | 802 | 49.8%399 W · 403 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecc0…4800backed Under | 76c | 85.53$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.53 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed Over | 28c | 80.81$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 108 | 48.1%52 W · 56 L | +5.0wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8543…ff1bbacked Over | 19c | 64.39$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 77 | 57.1%44 W · 33 L | +4.5wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d3b…28bdbacked Over | 32c | 62.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 62 | 50%31 W · 31 L | +4.7wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe84f…b777backed Over | 19c | 58.46$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.19 | 123 | 56.9%70 W · 53 L | +4.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6770…c3bdbacked Under | 71c | 44$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.76 | 45 | 31.1%14 W · 31 L | -5.9wins | -0.13per pick | 44cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x07f1…3b8ebacked Under | 72c | 41.67$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.67 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.26per pick | 59cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1a6a…56bdbacked Over | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 53 | 26.4%14 W · 39 L | -7.8wins | -0.15per pick | 41cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe29c…a31dbacked Over | 32c | 37.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.16 | 61 | 49.2%30 W · 31 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd04…c5e1backed Under | 79c | 37.2$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.81 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 76cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Under | 72c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 111 | 44.1%49 W · 62 L | -9.4wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed Under | 71c | 25.59$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.42 | 196 | 42.9%84 W · 112 L | -9.0wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9545…d6f7backed Under | 70c | 21.43$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.43 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xedab…8926backed Under | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.21per pick | 62cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Under | 73c | 17.2$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.64 | 526 | 39.5%208 W · 318 L | -11.9wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked Under | 71c | 16.46$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.84 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6209…6767backed Under | 70c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 74cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Portland Timbers vs. Real Salt Lake: O/U 4.5this page
- Portland Timbers vs. Real Salt Lake: 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- Portland Timbers vs. Real Salt Lake: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Portland Timbers vs. Real Salt Lake: Both Teams to Score in First HalfNo won
- Portland Timbers vs. Real Salt Lake: O/U 0.5Over won
- Portland Timbers vs. Real Salt Lake: O/U 1.5Over won
- Portland Timbers vs. Real Salt Lake: O/U 2.5Over won
- Portland Timbers vs. Real Salt Lake: O/U 3.5Under won
- Portland Timbers vs. Real Salt Lake: O/U 5.5Under won
- Portland Timbers vs. Real Salt Lake: Portland Timbers O/U 0.5Over won
- Portland Timbers vs. Real Salt Lake: Real Salt Lake O/U 1.5Under won
- Portland Timbers vs. Real Salt Lake: Real Salt Lake O/U 2.5Under won
- Spread: Portland Timbers (-1.5)Real Salt Lake won
- Spread: Portland Timbers (-2.5)Real Salt Lake won
- Spread: Real Salt Lake (-1.5)Portland Timbers won
- Spread: Real Salt Lake (-2.5)Portland Timbers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.