Mls · resolved market
Spread: Inter Miami CF (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x777b1960e7898777a1bd4ef0e87c870996998c00e832bfdebf24ec7bd2d2a434
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Inter Miami CFof Inter Miami CF, FC Cincinnati
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,067
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,041
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,067 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked FC Cincinnati | 79c | 3,034$2,386 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,385.81 | 193 | 47.2%91 W · 102 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed FC Cincinnati | 77c | 1,661$1,272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,272.19 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Inter Miami CF | 28c | 1,271$351 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$919.67 | 328 | 48.8%160 W · 168 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Inter Miami CF | 22c | 1,173$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$909.63 | 68 | 41.2%28 W · 40 L | +4.5wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc283…b876backed Inter Miami CF | 19c | 1,163$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$946.55 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked FC Cincinnati | 72c | 810.3$584 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$584.47 | 971 | 46.1%448 W · 523 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Inter Miami CF | 19c | 800$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$649.7 | 923 | 46.6%430 W · 493 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42ff…6ecebacked Inter Miami CF | 26c | 748.15$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$550.85 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Inter Miami CF | 21c | 675$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$529.96 | 526 | 39.5%208 W · 318 L | -11.9wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed FC Cincinnati | 74c | 406.99$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.05 | 915 | 53%485 W · 430 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f2…4f6dbacked Inter Miami CF | 27c | 356.95$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.77 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.73per pick | 27cpaid | +271.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed FC Cincinnati | 73c | 272.39$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.84 | 1,880 | 36.6%688 W · 1,192 L | -7.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…1639backed Inter Miami CF | 27c | 185.19$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.19 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +2.2wins | +0.09per pick | 37cpaid | +43.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Inter Miami CF | 19c | 178.5$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.8 | 802 | 49.8%399 W · 403 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed FC Cincinnati | 74c | 153.33$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.96 | 681 | 50.8%346 W · 335 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Inter Miami CF | 24c | 100.3$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.17 | 360 | 51.9%187 W · 173 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Inter Miami CF | 25c | 81.49$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.97 | 208 | 49.5%103 W · 105 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed FC Cincinnati | 73c | 78.05$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.82 | 1,301 | 51.2%666 W · 635 L | -19.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5282…82fcbacked Inter Miami CF | 26c | 70$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.8 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +3.3wins | +0.36per pick | 30cpaid | +159.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Inter Miami CF | 24c | 66.62$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.81 | 1,262 | 45.2%571 W · 691 L | -28.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Inter Miami CF | 26c | 63.3$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.84 | 1,444 | 36.8%532 W · 912 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Inter Miami CF | 36c | 54.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.36 | 820 | 44.5%365 W · 455 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6216…1bd4backed Inter Miami CF | 26c | 50$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +58.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c76…862dbacked FC Cincinnati | 75c | 34.01$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.51 | 40 | 55%22 W · 18 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde25…c0a5backed FC Cincinnati | 74c | 25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -4.0wins | -0.12per pick | 59cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb4…4576backed FC Cincinnati | 73c | 22.19$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.29 | 70 | 37.1%26 W · 44 L | -11.4wins | -0.16per pick | 53cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x9ae4…e4a2backed FC Cincinnati | 74c | 19.51$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.48 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -2.9wins | -0.15per pick | 58cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed FC Cincinnati | 75c | 18.25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.69 | 248 | 59.3%147 W · 101 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab92…19e5backed FC Cincinnati | 74c | 15.01$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.14 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb25…eb12backed FC Cincinnati | 74c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.13 | 63 | 41.3%26 W · 37 L | -4.9wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc263…1e83backed FC Cincinnati | 74c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.13 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -2.4wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a16…9d73backed FC Cincinnati | 74c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.13 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed FC Cincinnati | 73c | 13.7$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 989 | 45.4%449 W · 540 L | -23.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed1b…7ebdbacked FC Cincinnati | 74c | 13.66$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.13 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.5wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2e73…3f4ebacked FC Cincinnati | 78c | 13.51$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.54 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Inter Miami CF (-1.5)this page
- FC Cincinnati vs. Inter Miami CF: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- FC Cincinnati vs. Inter Miami CF: O/U 1.5Over won
- FC Cincinnati vs. Inter Miami CF: O/U 2.5Over won
- FC Cincinnati vs. Inter Miami CF: O/U 3.5Over won
- FC Cincinnati vs. Inter Miami CF: O/U 4.5Over won
- Spread: FC Cincinnati (-1.5)Inter Miami CF won
- Spread: FC Cincinnati (-2.5)Inter Miami CF won
- Spread: Inter Miami CF (-2.5)FC Cincinnati won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.