Mls · resolved market
FC Cincinnati vs. Inter Miami CF: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1a5da7af8e697e3404365f634cf1ebe36c235d23011c0a09142c68777a7e2155
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,717
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,680
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,717 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Over | 74c | 2,908$2,160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$748 | 328 | 48.8%160 W · 168 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 30c | 2,556$761 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$760.97 | 1,444 | 36.8%532 W · 912 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Under | 25c | 1,017$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.2 | 99 | 57.6%57 W · 42 L | +13.1wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +40.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Over | 74c | 1,005$741 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$263.76 | 395 | 67.1%265 W · 130 L | +60.8wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +45.3%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x77c8…bc8cbacked Under | 26c | 999.96$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.99 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.20per pick | 20cpaid | +85.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbd69…91e4backed Under | 27c | 734.36$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 26c | 699.01$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.58 | 971 | 46.1%448 W · 523 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Over | 70c | 572.82$401 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.59 | 68 | 41.2%28 W · 40 L | +4.5wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 73c | 529.72$389 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.38 | 989 | 45.4%449 W · 540 L | -23.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54a2…1d43backed Under | 5c | 473.81$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.69 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | +14.3wins | +0.26per pick | 21cpaid | +225.7%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 26c | 445.97$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.95 | 1,880 | 36.6%688 W · 1,192 L | -7.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked Over | 75c | 423.24$317 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.81 | 190 | 52.1%99 W · 91 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x340b…3efbbacked Over | 74c | 400.08$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.02 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 67cpaid | -55%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbffb…a60ebacked Under | 26c | 200$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd092…342abacked Over | 61c | 196$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.44 | 66 | 62.1%41 W · 25 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 26c | 163.88$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.53 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf2…d280backed Under | 10c | 130$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 90 | 52.2%47 W · 43 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Over | 74c | 114.68$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.82 | 728 | 50.7%369 W · 359 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc9f…21f7backed Over | 75c | 103.89$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.97 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Under | 26c | 99.98$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.66 | 351 | 49.6%174 W · 177 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1399…48c8backed Over | 74c | 95$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.7 | 205 | 54.6%112 W · 93 L | +17.1wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 77c | 93.5$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.31 | 967 | 56.8%549 W · 418 L | +73.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Over | 72c | 88.75$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.46 | 915 | 53%485 W · 430 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 73c | 80$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 1,262 | 45.2%571 W · 691 L | -28.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6af…b5efbacked Over | 74c | 67.57$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.57 | 109 | 50.5%55 W · 54 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa06…74c3backed Over | 78c | 64.1$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 26c | 53$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.78 | 1,301 | 51.2%666 W · 635 L | -19.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…4d70backed Over | 74c | 51.6$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.42 | 294 | 60.5%178 W · 116 L | +36.5wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec3…34a7backed Over | 79c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 99 | 65.7%65 W · 34 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6216…1bd4backed Under | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +58.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f82…c446backed Over | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a6e…9bc5backed Over | 75c | 49.12$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.28 | 88 | 68.2%60 W · 28 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 73c | 43.14$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.54 | 820 | 44.5%365 W · 455 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 26c | 41.77$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.86 | 681 | 50.8%346 W · 335 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde28…8d20backed Over | 74c | 40.54$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.54 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde25…c0a5backed Under | 27c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -4.0wins | -0.12per pick | 59cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb63a…7637backed Over | 66c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.6 | 62 | 56.5%35 W · 27 L | -3.8wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe875…8492backed Under | 31c | 39.62$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Over | 73c | 38.35$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.47 | 360 | 51.9%187 W · 173 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4547…ac9bbacked Over | 73c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37a1…c13bbacked Over | 75c | 26.8$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +65.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0c3e…3c4cbacked Over | 74c | 26.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.02 | 191 | 72.3%138 W · 53 L | +36.8wins | +0.19per pick | 53cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…2b06backed Over | 74c | 19.52$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.08 | 311 | 58.5%182 W · 129 L | +27.0wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Over | 73c | 17.64$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.76 | 702 | 49.7%349 W · 353 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed Over | 76c | 14.86$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.64 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- FC Cincinnati vs. Inter Miami CF: O/U 2.5this page
- FC Cincinnati vs. Inter Miami CF: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- FC Cincinnati vs. Inter Miami CF: O/U 1.5Over won
- FC Cincinnati vs. Inter Miami CF: O/U 3.5Over won
- FC Cincinnati vs. Inter Miami CF: O/U 4.5Over won
- Spread: FC Cincinnati (-1.5)Inter Miami CF won
- Spread: FC Cincinnati (-2.5)Inter Miami CF won
- Spread: Inter Miami CF (-1.5)Inter Miami CF won
- Spread: Inter Miami CF (-2.5)FC Cincinnati won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.