NHL · resolved market
Spread: Stars (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x77b9cbc22aa429e8466336c3001c5087357c4e88e0ec277e57887c7fd6d0137f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Islandersof Stars, Islanders
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,495
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,813
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,495 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa31c…bdf7backed Stars | 33c | 1,063$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Islanders | 67c | 930.68$624 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$307.12 | 1,190 | 50.7%603 W · 587 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Islanders | 67c | 684.13$461 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.23 | 1,555 | 51.4%800 W · 755 L | +12.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Stars | 32c | 666.75$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.41 | 210 | 36.2%76 W · 134 L | -14.6wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…bcb3backed Stars | 33c | 611.63$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 403 | 40.9%165 W · 238 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed Islanders | 68c | 606.38$412 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.04 | 169 | 55.6%94 W · 75 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e52…0ec9backed Stars | 18c | 446.2$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Islanders | 68c | 428.72$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.19 | 594 | 50.8%302 W · 292 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd8…9a1cbacked Islanders | 70c | 402.08$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.5 | 239 | 50.6%121 W · 118 L | +11.3wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9438…3d6abacked Islanders | 68c | 209.63$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.08 | 177 | 61.6%109 W · 68 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe42d…62febacked Islanders | 70c | 136.22$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.22 | 97 | 60.8%59 W · 38 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed Islanders | 70c | 114.29$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.29 | 811 | 57.2%464 W · 347 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ed2…0ddabacked Stars | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 55 | 43.6%24 W · 31 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe725…2b00backed Stars | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Islanders | 66c | 87$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.36 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe722…57c5backed Stars | 32c | 72.95$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.34 | 199 | 51.8%103 W · 96 L | -9.8wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Stars | 26c | 65.27$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.09 | 657 | 21.9%144 W · 513 L | -105.6wins | -0.16per pick | 38cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Islanders | 66c | 63$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.46 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Stars | 32c | 61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.52 | 1,434 | 50.8%728 W · 706 L | -10.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Islanders | 68c | 55.5$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.78 | 1,530 | 51.7%791 W · 739 L | +22.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3123…b44dbacked Islanders | 69c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.4 | 144 | 45.8%66 W · 78 L | -6.9wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0204…0e31backed Islanders | 70c | 28.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.71 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14b2…e75fbacked Islanders | 70c | 23.84$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.25 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Stars (-1.5)this page
- Stars vs. IslandersIslanders won
- Stars vs. Islanders: O/U 4.5Under won
- Stars vs. Islanders: O/U 5.5Under won
- Stars vs. Islanders: O/U 6.5Under won
- Stars vs. Islanders: O/U 7.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.