Mls · resolved market
Will Orlando City SC vs. Nashville SC end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x77d2f233aad1e85e8fa5eef77e33573d2055a5cdbe978a2102e3e98af5ef72df
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $48,800
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $51,284
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $48,800 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0346…52a5backed No | 69c | 12,504$8,659 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,844.61 | 989 | 45.4%449 W · 540 L | -23.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f2…1848backed Yes | 25c | 12,384$3,080 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,079.99 | 97 | 26.8%26 W · 71 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Yes | 26c | 10,000$2,563 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,562.55 | 109 | 45%49 W · 60 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Yes | 30c | 9,767$2,961 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,961.06 | 1,444 | 36.8%532 W · 912 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26d6…caccbacked No | 80c | 3,774$3,019 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$755.47 | 229 | 46.7%107 W · 122 L | -7.9wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c33…0563backed No | 74c | 3,219$2,382 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$836.86 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x999a…9a25backed No | 79c | 3,086$2,431 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$654.28 | 57 | 52.6%30 W · 27 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed No | 54c | 2,545$1,369 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,175.82 | 1,880 | 36.6%688 W · 1,192 L | -7.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed No | 76c | 2,155$1,636 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$518.72 | 1,262 | 45.2%571 W · 691 L | -28.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed No | 75c | 2,112$1,587 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$524.93 | 702 | 49.7%349 W · 353 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 74c | 1,450$1,073 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$377 | 1,270 | 48%610 W · 660 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed No | 74c | 1,247$923 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$324.29 | 993 | 40.1%398 W · 595 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebc0…5806backed Yes | 48c | 1,042$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked No | 56c | 805.27$452 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$352.96 | 116 | 33.6%39 W · 77 L | -7.0wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Yes | 15c | 696$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.95 | 526 | 39.5%208 W · 318 L | -11.9wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e0…7eecbacked No | 76c | 549.07$418 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.51 | 314 | 46.5%146 W · 168 L | -10.7wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90aa…00f1backed Yes | 45c | 417.73$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186 | 24 | 8.3%2 W · 22 L | -3.5wins | -0.15per pick | 23cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked No | 71c | 400$284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.04 | 443 | 50.6%224 W · 219 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e48…c701backed Yes | 25c | 378.3$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.07 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 74c | 344.81$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.65 | 376 | 49.7%187 W · 189 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked No | 79c | 304.34$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.5 | 802 | 49.8%399 W · 403 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 33c | 277.37$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.12 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Yes | 25c | 269.39$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.46 | 728 | 50.7%369 W · 359 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57cc…0fa7backed Yes | 23c | 253.01$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.59 | 106 | 28.3%30 W · 76 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked Yes | 39c | 223.62$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.8 | 239 | 53.6%128 W · 111 L | +14.7wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6e…f544backed Yes | 34c | 220.59$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 103 | 38.8%40 W · 63 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecae…c544backed No | 76c | 184.86$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.73 | 45 | 66.7%30 W · 15 L | +5.8wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9b13…37dbbacked Yes | 35c | 172.56$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x191f…4a8dbacked No | 74c | 164.98$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.89 | 146 | 52.1%76 W · 70 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34b8…81afbacked Yes | 37c | 163.42$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…61fbbacked No | 73c | 160.49$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.87 | 134 | 64.9%87 W · 47 L | +17.1wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xdcaf…c830backed No | 61c | 135.73$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.93 | 199 | 60.8%121 W · 78 L | +22.5wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc8cd…ed53backed No | 75c | 121.16$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.29 | 29 | 79.3%23 W · 6 L | +3.0wins | +0.10per pick | 69cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Yes | 19c | 110.58$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.4 | 307 | 35.2%108 W · 199 L | -32.1wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3d3b…28bdbacked Yes | 26c | 103$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 62 | 50%31 W · 31 L | +4.7wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 75c | 101.17$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.14 | 803 | 58%466 W · 337 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7986…901bbacked Yes | 20c | 101.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 42cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed Yes | 22c | 100.46$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.65 | 451 | 40.4%182 W · 269 L | -18.7wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 67c | 98.42$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.29 | 549 | 49%269 W · 280 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8543…ff1bbacked No | 73c | 85.58$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.31 | 77 | 57.1%44 W · 33 L | +4.5wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa3c…5607backed No | 78c | 82.62$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.97 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e9f…3988backed No | 66c | 82.01$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.01 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -3.8wins | -0.16per pick | 53cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x91d7…0dfcbacked No | 80c | 80$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -68.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x789c…0d10backed No | 67c | 73.88$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.51 | 126 | 50.8%64 W · 62 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa38a…821dbacked No | 50c | 71$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.19 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | +3.3wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +106.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x50e5…e39fbacked Yes | 34c | 71$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.14 | 184 | 56.5%104 W · 80 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Yes | 34c | 70.29$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.9 | 120 | 58.3%70 W · 50 L | +6.7wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6818…8f14backed Yes | 22c | 68.18$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -63%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c33…ddd4backed Yes | 25c | 62.76$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed No | 78c | 57.73$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.7 | 270 | 58.9%159 W · 111 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cc…9986backed No | 76c | 45.75$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.98 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe20e…54c2backed No | 74c | 43$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.18 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc064…6fa8backed Yes | 35c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.12per pick | 47cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 64c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc112…d1efbacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Yes | 34c | 36.17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 149 | 57.7%86 W · 63 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c76…477abacked Yes | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.21per pick | 38cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe84f…b777backed No | 70c | 28.08$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.43 | 123 | 56.9%70 W · 53 L | +4.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked No | 77c | 23.9$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 444 | 47.3%210 W · 234 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked No | 62c | 21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.98 | 923 | 46.6%430 W · 493 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecdb…c4c7backed No | 76c | 20.09$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.82 | 107 | 53.3%57 W · 50 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2568…ef92backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 52 | 63.5%33 W · 19 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Orlando City SC vs. Nashville SC end in a draw?this page
- Will Nashville SC win on 2026-07-25?No won
- Will Orlando City SC win on 2026-07-25?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.