NHL · resolved market
Capitals vs. Canadiens: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x77e88ecb10006ca656fa634ab6a8a31e7e2b5703b192b0d32c4f546d676052a4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,064
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,192
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,064 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf5e1…5ad0backed Under | 46c | 4,483$2,062 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,062.12 | 331 | 51.7%171 W · 160 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Over | 54c | 4,320$2,333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,987.37 | 852 | 50.2%428 W · 424 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x44d6…9858backed Under | 49c | 3,000$1,470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,470 | 291 | 46.7%136 W · 155 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Over | 51c | 1,984$1,012 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$972.16 | 793 | 50.1%397 W · 396 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Over | 52c | 1,283$664 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$619.26 | 561 | 52%292 W · 269 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf43…ae9abacked Under | 49c | 1,220$593 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$593.13 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xada5…db70backed Over | 52c | 923$477 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$446.39 | 434 | 56%243 W · 191 L | +16.2wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Over | 52c | 524.31$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.67 | 88 | 37.5%33 W · 55 L | -4.5wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Over | 51c | 429.26$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.34 | 665 | 52%346 W · 319 L | +8.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4e9…44d0backed Under | 50c | 420$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84d9…76dbbacked Over | 50c | 420$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210 | 485 | 52.2%253 W · 232 L | +8.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ff5…f136backed Under | 54c | 414.26$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225 | 88 | 52.3%46 W · 42 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3dcf…4eb4backed Under | 47c | 361.7$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 167 | 56.3%94 W · 73 L | +9.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Over | 46c | 160.5$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.67 | 604 | 49.2%297 W · 307 L | -17.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x412a…802cbacked Over | 54c | 136.84$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.95 | 50 | 36%18 W · 32 L | -5.0wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb6dc…ab58backed Over | 54c | 132.5$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.95 | 58 | 46.6%27 W · 31 L | -3.6wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Over | 53c | 131.77$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.77 | 287 | 53.3%153 W · 134 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Over | 55c | 107.41$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.04 | 272 | 50%136 W · 136 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f15…a877backed Under | 48c | 104$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.92 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d55…7bc7backed Over | 53c | 102.08$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 223 | 52.9%118 W · 105 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Under | 34c | 100$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 261 | 36%94 W · 167 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9405…c071backed Under | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 76 | 47.4%36 W · 40 L | -4.2wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 47c | 98.94$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.03 | 1,092 | 50.4%550 W · 542 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea5d…d375backed Under | 62c | 96.48$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 169 | 45%76 W · 93 L | -7.7wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -14%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Under | 20c | 87$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 318 | 28.3%90 W · 228 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccf1…25a0backed Over | 66c | 81$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.54 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +195.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked Over | 45c | 80$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 234 | 50%117 W · 117 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fd5…ef85backed Under | 48c | 68$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.78 | 136 | 47.1%64 W · 72 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 56c | 66.02$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.94 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadf6…4eaabacked Under | 47c | 64.83$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.47 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7669…f58cbacked Over | 62c | 58$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.04 | 83 | 68.7%57 W · 26 L | +12.3wins | +0.15per pick | 54cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xead8…ce1abacked Over | 50c | 56.1$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.05 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3036…15c2backed Over | 53c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 416 | 50.7%211 W · 205 L | +15.5wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x42b5…b5b6backed Over | 45c | 43.17$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.74 | 1,377 | 49.1%676 W · 701 L | +39.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 57c | 42.47$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.27 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 48c | 35.95$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.15 | 860 | 49.2%423 W · 437 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc46a…baf8backed Under | 48c | 33.89$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.27 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa88…9ff5backed Over | 53c | 33.06$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.54 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeee0…bf55backed Over | 53c | 31.77$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.93 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…f9d1backed Under | 47c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 216 | 51.4%111 W · 105 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9867…bc76backed Over | 54c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 37 | 67.6%25 W · 12 L | +3.6wins | +0.10per pick | 58cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Under | 45c | 22.75$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 65 | 33.8%22 W · 43 L | -3.7wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Capitals vs. Canadiens: O/U 6.5this page
- Capitals vs. CanadiensCanadiens won
- Capitals vs. Canadiens: O/U 5.5Over won
- Capitals vs. Canadiens: O/U 7.5Over won
- Spread: Canadiens (-1.5)Canadiens won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.