Bundesliga · resolved market
Will DSC Arminia Bielefeld win on 2026-08-16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x77ea2b43267190db6539a526e921d7bd75e94e99614eb425fe91622988750259
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $93,715
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $104,935
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $93,715 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 80 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Yes | 62c | 43,940$27,166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16,774.21 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -3.0wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 38c | 18,565$7,107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,107.44 | 698 | 51.9%362 W · 336 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ed…9f79backed Yes | 61c | 9,601$5,888 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,712.74 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f15…bdb3backed No | 38c | 6,055$2,301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,300.94 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed No | 37c | 5,300$1,953 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,953.27 | 283 | 45.2%128 W · 155 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224f…514abacked No | 39c | 5,052$1,956 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,955.61 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.21per pick | 59cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38fb…d07cbacked No | 6c | 4,511$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99f0…9495backed No | 38c | 4,351$1,636 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,636.12 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc56…8f28backed Yes | 62c | 3,063$1,896 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,166.81 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked No | 39c | 3,005$1,162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,161.89 | 420 | 46.4%195 W · 225 L | -10.1wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3a…e8fdbacked No | 39c | 2,746$1,067 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,066.74 | 72 | 55.6%40 W · 32 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 38c | 2,207$844 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$843.98 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ee0…d6a6backed Yes | 63c | 1,598$1,007 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$591.23 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed No | 38c | 1,476$561 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$560.62 | 636 | 45.1%287 W · 349 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed No | 38c | 1,476$561 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$560.62 | 496 | 47.4%235 W · 261 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 37c | 1,449$536 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$535.95 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadb7…1747backed No | 40c | 1,274$505 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$505 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed No | 3c | 1,110$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.16 | 817 | 32.8%268 W · 549 L | -11.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0844…f46abacked No | 39c | 999.98$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$389.99 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked No | 37c | 997$374 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$373.81 | 481 | 46.4%223 W · 258 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed01…83a8backed No | 30c | 888.54$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.49 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -70.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0178…3f7abacked Yes | 70c | 830$581 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249 | 52 | 46.2%24 W · 28 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6407…d360backed No | 38c | 789.47$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | +41.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed No | 16c | 776.8$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128 | 435 | 32.2%140 W · 295 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 38c | 672.03$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.42 | 28 | 71.4%20 W · 8 L | +6.4wins | +0.23per pick | 49cpaid | +70.4%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x5213…6a35backed No | 37c | 630.63$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.33 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe954…1ef1backed No | 37c | 613.94$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.2 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x547f…2937backed No | 40c | 541.31$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.52 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 48cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed No | 3c | 533.23$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.34 | 481 | 41.8%201 W · 280 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3f…4333backed No | 40c | 526.32$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a64…683ebacked No | 37c | 500$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x81a9…df08backed Yes | 63c | 476$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.12 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a55…a82abacked Yes | 65c | 461.54$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.54 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9eeb…a72cbacked Yes | 62c | 322.23$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.02 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.32per pick | 52cpaid | -67.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8e90…4f65backed No | 39c | 307.08$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.22 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeaac…d71dbacked No | 37c | 275.03$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.76 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd296…084dbacked Yes | 64c | 254.58$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.65 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Yes | 58c | 245.07$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.93 | 264 | 45.5%120 W · 144 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3388…ae3dbacked No | 42c | 224.56$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd74…bedabacked No | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 40 | 25%10 W · 30 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6844…7633backed Yes | 59c | 159.92$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.57 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed No | 39c | 149.99$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.5 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +4.1wins | +0.15per pick | 46cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2471…4523backed No | 32c | 110$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8956…755fbacked No | 37c | 108.11$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 47 | 40.4%19 W · 28 L | -6.0wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -24%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3820…ffc3backed No | 39c | 107$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.73 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x294f…eeabbacked Yes | 65c | 105.42$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.9 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75e8…7e5cbacked No | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 65cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f2…8c8dbacked No | 13c | 99.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.04 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -2.0wins | -0.12per pick | 41cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef80…7fcdbacked Yes | 65c | 97.58$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87f7…8f45backed Yes | 79c | 97.05$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.91 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.13per pick | 44cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0e50…2609backed Yes | 60c | 96.01$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.4 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Yes | 61c | 81.97$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.97 | 106 | 47.2%50 W · 56 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e8f…497dbacked Yes | 59c | 71.69$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.39 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Yes | 56c | 65.38$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.77 | 550 | 58.7%323 W · 227 L | +23.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b56…a082backed Yes | 56c | 52$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.88 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 38c | 51$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.38 | 569 | 51.8%295 W · 274 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 39c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 398 | 57.5%229 W · 169 L | +20.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 59c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 39 | 30.8%12 W · 27 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0464…67dabacked Yes | 56c | 42.4$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.66 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +83.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba2…d212backed No | 25c | 41.92$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.48 | 40 | 30%12 W · 28 L | -4.6wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x587b…2622backed Yes | 75c | 41.92$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.48 | 194 | 58.2%113 W · 81 L | +9.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +28%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7523…68a0backed No | 39c | 41.45$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5cf3…5160backed No | 40c | 40.26$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 39c | 37.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.67 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69df…fe16backed Yes | 59c | 35.59$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.59 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.24per pick | 62cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf964…084ebacked Yes | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Yes | 67c | 32.28$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.6 | 1,013 | 44.5%451 W · 562 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x853e…f16abacked Yes | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccb7…0477backed Yes | 66c | 31.18$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.6 | 28 | 82.1%23 W · 5 L | +4.4wins | +0.16per pick | 67cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x042d…0b81backed Yes | 56c | 28.81$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.68 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +17%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6b…8a98backed No | 42c | 28.04$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.72 | 102 | 44.1%45 W · 57 L | -5.6wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa2d5…ab3ebacked No | 40c | 27.79$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.21 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09da…50bcbacked No | 40c | 27.2$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3da8…be26backed No | 41c | 26.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.87 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12c8…3cb0backed No | 40c | 25.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe682…dbcdbacked No | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5837…8cdebacked Yes | 57c | 21.4$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2892…e9d7backed Yes | 62c | 20.42$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.76 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf1d…9591backed Yes | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.31per pick | 56cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6522…3a5abacked Yes | 77c | 18.14$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.09 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will DSC Arminia Bielefeld win on 2026-08-16?this page
- Will DSC Arminia Bielefeld vs. FC Energie Cottbus end in a draw?No won
- Will FC Energie Cottbus win on 2026-08-16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.