TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on April 26?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$17,913
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$16,641

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,913 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 84 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xbda1…827fbacked Yes30c1,458$432 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$431.8430919.4%60 W · 249 L-17.1wins-0.06per pick25cpaid-50.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x718c…11e0backed No70c402.28$281 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121.325164.7%33 W · 18 L-2.9wins-0.06per pick70cpaid-3.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes29c397.42$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.0117,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes17c343.81$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.783,85923.4%903 W · 2,956 L+128.4wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2b13…62d3backed Yes31c330.82$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.31,05231.2%328 W · 724 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7b20…bc23backed No65c307$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.4581165.8%534 W · 277 L-37.1wins-0.05per pick70cpaid-6.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7716…43b6backed Yes18c277$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.863821.1%8 W · 30 L+2.0wins+0.05per pick16cpaid+52.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes9c195.14$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.035,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb12a…cb82backed Yes32c186.38$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.486823.5%16 W · 52 L-3.3wins-0.05per pick28cpaid-38.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb3b4…48b2backed Yes28c185.66$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.820631.6%65 W · 141 L-23.6wins-0.11per pick43cpaid-38.1%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes24c185.52$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.259,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6400…331abacked No74c156.46$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.3842469.1%293 W · 131 L+8.4wins+0.02per pick67cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb964…927fbacked Yes8c153.03$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.3518327.3%50 W · 133 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-11.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd3b4…73cdbacked No66c150.94$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.3263143.1%272 W · 359 L-14.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-2.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8fb4…b9edbacked Yes19c148.53$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.0542130.4%128 W · 293 L+19.5wins+0.05per pick26cpaid+6.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc226…ee11backed Yes33c142.9$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.63728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-50.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x80f5…2b27backed Yes30c134.56$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.7231442.4%133 W · 181 L+15.2wins+0.05per pick38cpaid+8.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9a07…e26dbacked Yes35c133.57$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.7510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x36da…907bbacked No68c129.32$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.388239%32 W · 50 L-5.0wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-10.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes10c123.27$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.77,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x108a…8159backed Yes38c118.51$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.4158732.9%193 W · 394 L+34.4wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+15.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No67c112.5$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.125,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf6e4…7b02backed Yes42c108.64$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.21837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-38.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes26c105.23$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.8271823.4%168 W · 550 L-26.6wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-44.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2c47…79f8backed Yes16c103.43$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.7764333.4%215 W · 428 L+14.3wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+6.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x01a6…59b0backed No69c102.73$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.281,67961.7%1,036 W · 643 L+6.3wins0.00per pick61cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x993c…8f7abacked Yes17c99.46$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.243046.7%14 W · 16 L+1.5wins+0.05per pick42cpaid+16.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xae8f…c820backed Yes33c97.53$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.2863538.1%242 W · 393 L+6.2wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6bee…7e78backed Yes34c97.14$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.031,07623.5%253 W · 823 L+69.1wins+0.06per pick17cpaid+14.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9cb3…1367backed Yes28c95.46$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.261,55433.1%515 W · 1,039 L-66.6wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-27.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xae68…064abacked No68c95.05$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.612,55563.8%1,631 W · 924 L+38.4wins+0.02per pick62cpaid+8.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x26b1…d0f4backed Yes32c91.27$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.8820%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No68c88.46$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.3112,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No70c85.48$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.664,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc85e…5d37backed Yes25c79.08$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.4514632.9%48 W · 98 L-6.3wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-21.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf419…5f89backed Yes24c72.95$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.5194919.7%187 W · 762 L+11.1wins+0.01per pick19cpaid+8.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes41c70.92$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.8346240.5%187 W · 275 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes19c68.87$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.112,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x4179…cceebacked No75c65.43$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.3642976.5%328 W · 101 L+4.5wins+0.01per pick75cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes32c64.53$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.727,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf694…24e3backed Yes32c64.52$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.6511129.7%33 W · 78 L-3.1wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfc4d…6e9dbacked Yes28c63.63$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.533336.4%12 W · 21 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick35cpaid-6.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf899…0759backed Yes29c61.94$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.0526738.6%103 W · 164 L0.0wins0.00per pick39cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4a72…9d77backed Yes40c60.88$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.053745.9%17 W · 20 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick43cpaid-5.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9d49…5ecebacked Yes29c60.05$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.483438.2%13 W · 21 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick36cpaid-14.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf3d2…6efcbacked Yes20c59.5$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.7321930.1%66 W · 153 L+15.3wins+0.07per pick23cpaid+38.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0a84…171fbacked Yes37c59.07$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.8525239.7%100 W · 152 L-0.3wins0.00per pick40cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes25c57.75$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.32,11936.1%764 W · 1,355 L-12.1wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-26.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe217…5c75backed Yes33c57.44$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.1616030%48 W · 112 L-15.2wins-0.09per pick39cpaid-38.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x5576…59e9backed Yes31c56.48$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.4617033.5%57 W · 113 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa7d4…3a45backed Yes34c54.94$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.681526.7%4 W · 11 L-0.9wins-0.06per pick32cpaid-36.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf73f…ee53backed No57c51$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.932,95033.6%992 W · 1,958 L+9.9wins0.00per pick33cpaid+4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4245…a467backed Yes32c49.99$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1660739.7%241 W · 366 L+27.7wins+0.05per pick35cpaid+10.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes21c49.99$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.570133.5%235 W · 466 L+13.4wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+7.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0675…1ec0backed No68c47.55$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.281656.3%9 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+42.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xd23e…2623backed Yes36c45.87$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.372755.6%15 W · 12 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick54cpaid0%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xea84…dec2backed Yes31c45.04$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.9710%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf674…8564backed Yes36c45$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.216234%55 W · 107 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-6.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5e5d…9491backed No77c44.4$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.2130859.1%182 W · 126 L-10.3wins-0.03per pick62cpaid-8.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb6af…4219backed No68c42.45$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.450648.8%247 W · 259 L+25.1wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+6.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5235…43a8backed No66c41.22$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.1824539.6%97 W · 148 L+10.6wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+13.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xaab2…4c7abacked Yes34c41.21$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.011040%4 W · 6 L+1.2wins+0.12per pick28cpaid+24.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3274…4493backed Yes34c40.93$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.021747.1%8 W · 9 L+2.0wins+0.12per pick35cpaid+17.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9f3f…af73backed Yes34c40.92$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.9419848%95 W · 103 L+7.0wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+13.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6ec8…99d2backed No66c40.89$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.983360.7%506 W · 327 L+1.6wins0.00per pick61cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaa84…e985backed Yes41c40$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.440739.3%160 W · 247 L-11.2wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x36c2…2b8cbacked No77c39$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.9770770.2%496 W · 211 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick71cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9631…a38cbacked Yes34c38.29$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.0249750.3%250 W · 247 L+20.9wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+24.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xde08…b228backed No79c37.18$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.813366.7%22 W · 11 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick68cpaid-2.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7d81…259bbacked Yes36c37.14$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.379756.7%55 W · 42 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc6d8…b90dbacked No66c36.58$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.4483459.8%499 W · 335 L+27.5wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+6.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe8e6…aa6cbacked No69c35.12$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.911977.3%92 W · 27 L+4.9wins+0.04per pick73cpaid+6.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5fdf…28a2backed Yes35c33.79$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.8356131.7%178 W · 383 L+2.6wins0.00per pick31cpaid-6.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc769…0925backed Yes32c31.25$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103938.5%15 W · 24 L+3.1wins+0.08per pick31cpaid+34.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa1e5…b209backed Yes38c30.95$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.765521.8%12 W · 43 L-12.8wins-0.23per pick45cpaid-57.7%equal weight32-0.16 edge/pick
0xeb54…d452backed No65c30$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.54,52565.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L-134.0wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe2a1…20f9backed No74c26.36$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.8834057.1%194 W · 146 L-3.7wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe7c9…d2b8backed No66c20.66$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.0253547.5%254 W · 281 L-8.6wins-0.02per pick49cpaid+3.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x245e…eab4backed No80c19.88$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.988574.1%63 W · 22 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick77cpaid-4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa98a…a5a8backed No80c16.99$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.42,01567.7%1,365 W · 650 L+1.8wins0.00per pick68cpaid+3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb218…edfdbacked No68c16.57$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.31163.6%7 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick66cpaid-5.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe9b1…79d7backed No69c15.73$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.8888973.2%651 W · 238 L+20.3wins+0.02per pick71cpaid+1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe027…e71ebacked No79c14.88$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.12475%3 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick73cpaid+2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa870…2cd1backed No80c12.5$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2.517978.8%141 W · 38 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick78cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.