Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on April 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd37707592df7e9f244a56a2682469403037329f7f3df42ca754dd1c604cbd601
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,714
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,604
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,714 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 103 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked No | 14c | 699.68$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.83 | 718 | 23.4%168 W · 550 L | -26.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed No | 6c | 477.31$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.92 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0dfe…846cbacked Yes | 54c | 355.81$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.09 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -39%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 65c | 306.98$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.54 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8103…23a1backed No | 4c | 300$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 576 | 14.9%86 W · 490 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 16c | 265.38$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.77 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b4…48b2backed Yes | 78c | 256.8$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.68 | 206 | 31.6%65 W · 141 L | -23.6wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 15c | 246.09$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.78 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 35c | 226.98$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.38 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 71c | 167.05$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.63 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 31c | 161.25$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.99 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6aab…ead7backed Yes | 67c | 158.37$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.96 | 101 | 41.6%42 W · 59 L | -8.3wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 40c | 153.27$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.72 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80f5…2b27backed Yes | 55c | 140.97$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.52 | 314 | 42.4%133 W · 181 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 37c | 139.24$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.66 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6af…4219backed Yes | 56c | 137.61$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.16 | 506 | 48.8%247 W · 259 L | +25.1wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 56c | 135.78$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.83 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 20c | 130.55$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.96 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 68c | 118.38$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.29 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb4…b9edbacked No | 22c | 112.15$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.58 | 421 | 30.4%128 W · 293 L | +19.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc226…ee11backed Yes | 46c | 103.44$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.15 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 67c | 100.16$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.05 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa128…541ebacked No | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb85…f401backed Yes | 68c | 99.9$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.97 | 311 | 24.1%75 W · 236 L | -8.2wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…d16abacked Yes | 32c | 99.26$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c48…6b72backed Yes | 49c | 95.65$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.85 | 452 | 38.5%174 W · 278 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d41…24d7backed Yes | 77c | 94.97$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 89 | 42.7%38 W · 51 L | -9.0wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3334…69b0backed Yes | 57c | 94$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.42 | 464 | 44.4%206 W · 258 L | -18.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 36c | 80.05$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.38 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5c…d892backed No | 18c | 78.72$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.87 | 570 | 44.9%256 W · 314 L | +36.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +13%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf6e4…7b02backed Yes | 59c | 78.41$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.77 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 48c | 75.59$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.29 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4087…9678backed No | 67c | 74.63$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 95 | 53.7%51 W · 44 L | -12.1wins | -0.13per pick | 66cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0175…4264backed No | 67c | 74.61$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.99 | 97 | 53.6%52 W · 45 L | -12.2wins | -0.13per pick | 66cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 48c | 69.19$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.11 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x116b…efbcbacked Yes | 47c | 67.39$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.41 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf899…0759backed Yes | 38c | 65.66$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.71 | 267 | 38.6%103 W · 164 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5f6…91d5backed Yes | 64c | 60.07$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda5f…75e1backed Yes | 57c | 58.67$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.38 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9502…ba22backed Yes | 68c | 58.47$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.84 | 111 | 46.8%52 W · 59 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 40c | 57$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.2 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf55f…8e92backed No | 68c | 56.94$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.72 | 165 | 48.5%80 W · 85 L | -13.3wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0a84…171fbacked Yes | 47c | 56.92$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 252 | 39.7%100 W · 152 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked No | 41c | 56.47$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.26 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 47c | 54.97$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.85 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 35c | 53.72$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.99 | 621 | 37.7%234 W · 387 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x925f…70c2backed Yes | 44c | 53.4$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.79 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe217…5c75backed Yes | 40c | 51.28$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.77 | 160 | 30%48 W · 112 L | -15.2wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf694…24e3backed Yes | 40c | 51.28$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.77 | 111 | 29.7%33 W · 78 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbd6…3ea1backed Yes | 50c | 50.24$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.12 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfba3…4e15backed No | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 278 | 51.8%144 W · 134 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.5 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked No | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 1,275 | 34%433 W · 842 L | +46.2wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf674…8564backed Yes | 44c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 162 | 34%55 W · 107 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 55c | 49.09$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa200…27b0backed No | 22c | 48.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 154 | 35.7%55 W · 99 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -17%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf82e…ad17backed Yes | 70c | 48.5$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.55 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 67cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…1e4ebacked Yes | 56c | 47.8$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.03 | 321 | 47.4%152 W · 169 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3eb9…901ebacked No | 45c | 47.25$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.26 | 57 | 66.7%38 W · 19 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed No | 36c | 47.1$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.75 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb70d…43f4backed Yes | 65c | 46.99$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.65 | 173 | 58.4%101 W · 72 L | +14.3wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +56.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2c47…79f8backed Yes | 37c | 46.82$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.69 | 643 | 33.4%215 W · 428 L | +14.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 68c | 44.09$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.98 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3274…4493backed Yes | 45c | 42.12$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.18 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +2.0wins | +0.12per pick | 35cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x777a…001abacked Yes | 34c | 41.59$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.58 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +48.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 55c | 40.07$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.91 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e2e…d8a9backed Yes | 79c | 39.86$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 79 | 79.7%63 W · 16 L | +9.4wins | +0.12per pick | 68cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 62c | 38.16$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.66 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9631…a38cbacked Yes | 50c | 38$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 497 | 50.3%250 W · 247 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 70c | 37.98$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.34 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x98e9…2ea5backed No | 64c | 37.65$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.1 | 178 | 55.6%99 W · 79 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d81…259bbacked Yes | 56c | 37.29$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.32 | 97 | 56.7%55 W · 42 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 43c | 36.53$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.74 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fdf…28a2backed Yes | 50c | 34.33$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.17 | 561 | 31.7%178 W · 383 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 52c | 33.65$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.46 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…9936backed Yes | 57c | 33.58$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.44 | 100 | 59%59 W · 41 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3da3…0fdcbacked Yes | 37c | 32.81$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.53 | 1,024 | 25%256 W · 768 L | +20.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a72…9d77backed Yes | 57c | 32.32$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.05 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…0379backed Yes | 35c | 32.16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.97 | 548 | 57.5%315 W · 233 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b1f…9ff2backed Yes | 48c | 31.31$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.13 | 323 | 52.9%171 W · 152 L | +19.6wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9987…9014backed Yes | 40c | 30.94$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.72 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 47c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 45c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 65c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa84…e985backed Yes | 65c | 29.84$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.44 | 407 | 39.3%160 W · 247 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e99…b482backed Yes | 55c | 29.31$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.19 | 425 | 44%187 W · 238 L | +15.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc12f…5c57backed Yes | 64c | 28.92$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.41 | 193 | 38.9%75 W · 118 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c1…bec3backed Yes | 41c | 27.34$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.13 | 116 | 44%51 W · 65 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb13…3bb3backed Yes | 56c | 24.33$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.7 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c9…d2b8backed No | 62c | 24.2$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 535 | 47.5%254 W · 281 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 59c | 23.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.19 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65c4…7ea4backed Yes | 77c | 22.31$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.18 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc41…c3f9backed No | 68c | 21.51$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.63 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -2.6wins | -0.29per pick | 74cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x313b…5090backed No | 54c | 21.2$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.45 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 63c | 21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.23 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabee…ab7dbacked No | 55c | 20.84$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.46 | 83 | 60.2%50 W · 33 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f01…4c3abacked No | 49c | 20.36$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.06 | 161 | 59%95 W · 66 L | -6.4wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b78…e589backed Yes | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked No | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on April 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 15°C or below on April 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C on April 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on April 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on April 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on April 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on April 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C or higher on April 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.