Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 22°C or higher on April 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x780e81e7a55c363d044b9cfa3dc6457e0432d0807ec5875035c372930435b155
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,733
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,418
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,733 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3d46…8ad1backed No | 1c | 3,415$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.76 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffc…c66fbacked Yes | 44c | 380.68$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.79 | 168 | 36.3%61 W · 107 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 70c | 317.16$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.52 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8792…4174backed No | 61c | 302.74$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.51 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed No | 9c | 277.33$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.61 | 468 | 24.4%114 W · 354 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 75c | 266$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.5 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 34c | 241.33$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.71 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa07a…f97abacked No | 38c | 220.46$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.8 | 127 | 17.3%22 W · 105 L | -10.2wins | -0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ad…d00bbacked No | 28c | 157.01$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.66 | 490 | 38.8%190 W · 300 L | +24.4wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2936…6c5fbacked No | 41c | 137.2$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.93 | 342 | 50.6%173 W · 169 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 67c | 128.53$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.17 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d7…e878backed Yes | 70c | 124.89$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.31 | 237 | 43%102 W · 135 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13e0…7465backed Yes | 72c | 104.38$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.39 | 352 | 33%116 W · 236 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe90a…07e8backed No | 37c | 99.95$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.47 | 116 | 36.2%42 W · 74 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked Yes | 62c | 87.9$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.21 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 58c | 79.91$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.8 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5235…43a8backed No | 33c | 78.01$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.53 | 245 | 39.6%97 W · 148 L | +10.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51b1…e309backed Yes | 76c | 70.61$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.2 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +3.0wins | +0.20per pick | 60cpaid | +54.8%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 55c | 65.92$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.87 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 54c | 63.63$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.37 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f8a…b076backed Yes | 67c | 59.7$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.7 | 208 | 35.6%74 W · 134 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 24c | 51.56$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.15 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x4aa1…596cbacked Yes | 77c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 214 | 48.6%104 W · 110 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61ea…8c65backed Yes | 72c | 48.86$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.85 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa054…a95dbacked No | 37c | 48.32$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.67 | 399 | 66.2%264 W · 135 L | +33.6wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 29c | 47.77$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d6b…5cd9backed Yes | 79c | 47.69$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.91 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.26per pick | 66cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c9…d2b8backed No | 34c | 44.11$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 535 | 47.5%254 W · 281 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf899…0759backed Yes | 64c | 43.39$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.52 | 267 | 38.6%103 W · 164 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb964…927fbacked Yes | 68c | 43.2$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.82 | 183 | 27.3%50 W · 133 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 69c | 40.19$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.4 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x3066…1e7bbacked Yes | 68c | 37.87$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.08 | 92 | 70.7%65 W · 27 L | +10.7wins | +0.12per pick | 59cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9fec…9d17backed Yes | 67c | 35.94$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.76 | 51 | 52.9%27 W · 24 L | +3.7wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5740…e7fcbacked Yes | 72c | 35.49$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.94 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -46%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked No | 50c | 34.4$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.15 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x001f…fdbbbacked Yes | 69c | 33.93$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.62 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed No | 31c | 32.26$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 251 | 30.7%77 W · 174 L | -9.8wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked No | 36c | 29.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.68 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8f6…85e9backed Yes | 70c | 29.7$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.91 | 80 | 67.5%54 W · 26 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a47…f248backed Yes | 77c | 28$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.51 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.21per pick | 59cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed Yes | 63c | 27.83$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa748…5419backed Yes | 72c | 27$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.56 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked Yes | 59c | 26.85$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.01 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 75c | 26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64a6…4ac1backed Yes | 78c | 25.08$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.52 | 65 | 53.8%35 W · 30 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed Yes | 61c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.75 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 53c | 23$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.81 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b3b…0353backed Yes | 59c | 22.75$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.25 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x404d…e6d3backed Yes | 68c | 21.49$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.97 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +48%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb060…9572backed Yes | 73c | 20.43$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.52 | 97 | 50.5%49 W · 48 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa4…5c82backed Yes | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 72 | 63.9%46 W · 26 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96c4…e168backed Yes | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 68c | 19.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc19c…bde7backed Yes | 55c | 19.1$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01f2…c3debacked Yes | 72c | 18.1$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.99 | 125 | 38.4%48 W · 77 L | -18.5wins | -0.15per pick | 53cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked Yes | 59c | 16.95$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.95 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d2b…f380backed Yes | 78c | 16.92$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.72 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +67.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x711a…17a6backed No | 68c | 16.62$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.29 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked Yes | 67c | 16.04$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.22 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbf…f003backed Yes | 70c | 15.69$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.76 | 306 | 52.6%161 W · 145 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed No | 76c | 14.58$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.08 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb62…2f7ebacked No | 74c | 13.92$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 22°C or higher on April 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 19°C on April 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 20°C on April 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 21°C on April 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.