Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 21°C on April 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8d8dbfed9e260f075f2af78dd80b1ec920c55e8a2d7c42c67134a0e19706d35b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,329
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,736
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,329 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3d46…8ad1backed Yes | 1c | 3,500$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3bb7…2838backed Yes | 1c | 2,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 29 | 13.8%4 W · 25 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf56c…ad84backed Yes | 4c | 400$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 507 | 3.4%17 W · 490 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51b1…e309backed No | 15c | 294.8$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.58 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +3.0wins | +0.20per pick | 60cpaid | +54.8%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 75c | 266$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.5 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a26…c335backed Yes | 12c | 254.16$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.41 | 862 | 26.8%231 W · 631 L | +28.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 66c | 242.4$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.03 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x997e…7e58backed Yes | 21c | 239.03$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.85 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -3.4wins | -0.13per pick | 57cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8b2b…4e2fbacked Yes | 16c | 200$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 41 | 26.8%11 W · 30 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffc…c66fbacked Yes | 28c | 163.33$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.46 | 168 | 36.3%61 W · 107 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 11c | 150$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked Yes | 23c | 115.42$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13e0…7465backed Yes | 27c | 109.19$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.93 | 352 | 33%116 W · 236 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0db1…6272backed Yes | 21c | 107.55$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.93 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x901f…64f0backed Yes | 14c | 91.39$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.73 | 131 | 33.6%44 W · 87 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 23c | 90.83$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.57 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa054…a95dbacked No | 32c | 90$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.48 | 399 | 66.2%264 W · 135 L | +33.6wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc80f…6147backed Yes | 16c | 76.92$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.09 | 525 | 33.7%177 W · 348 L | +22.8wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +32%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 71c | 70.41$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.42 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4179…cceebacked No | 74c | 65.08$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.81 | 429 | 76.5%328 W · 101 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 17c | 64.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce07…5c3cbacked No | 27c | 64.14$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 310 | 62.6%194 W · 116 L | +38.4wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 67c | 62.46$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.53 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1e1…f5a9backed No | 79c | 62.32$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.4 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…5f89backed Yes | 26c | 60.5$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.73 | 949 | 19.7%187 W · 762 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Yes | 33c | 57.9$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.92 | 468 | 24.4%114 W · 354 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 26c | 56.65$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.66 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76f7…d7cdbacked Yes | 70c | 56$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.04 | 25 | 72%18 W · 7 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 63cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 28c | 51.47$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 42c | 48.49$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.12 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xa081…e7a0backed No | 42c | 46.53$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.12 | 389 | 61.7%240 W · 149 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 73c | 41.93$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.3 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3da3…0fdcbacked Yes | 35c | 38.36$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.24 | 1,024 | 25%256 W · 768 L | +20.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53bc…be7cbacked No | 78c | 35.86$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.89 | 627 | 70.5%442 W · 185 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 75c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01f2…c3debacked No | 79c | 25.65$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.43 | 125 | 38.4%48 W · 77 L | -18.5wins | -0.15per pick | 53cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 73c | 25.57$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.93 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c47…79f8backed Yes | 59c | 25.47$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.14 | 643 | 33.4%215 W · 428 L | +14.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3507…71d7backed No | 79c | 24.61$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.17 | 333 | 73%243 W · 90 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 73cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea0d…c1b6backed No | 79c | 24.29$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.21 | 216 | 76.4%165 W · 51 L | +12.5wins | +0.06per pick | 71cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 78c | 18.4$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.05 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4cc…2a5ebacked Yes | 76c | 17.12$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.04 | 50 | 44%22 W · 28 L | -12.1wins | -0.24per pick | 68cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked Yes | 70c | 16.59$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.69 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 80c | 14.07$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.81 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 21°C on April 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 19°C on April 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 20°C on April 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 22°C or higher on April 28?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.