Australian A League · resolved market
Will Macarthur FC win on 2026-03-15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7886616cfc5ded95393d27d6011df67a87d142595015fc3bc3d5aef4191d4ce9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Australian A Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,087
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,806
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,087 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Australian A League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Australian A League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0438…9d98backed Yes | 26c | 3,093$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 81 | 39.5%32 W · 49 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed Yes | 20c | 1,961$383 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$383.01 | 148 | 43.9%65 W · 83 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked No | 74c | 1,437$1,063 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$373.62 | 147 | 55.1%81 W · 66 L | +8.9wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 75c | 1,178$885 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$293.63 | 149 | 55.7%83 W · 66 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed No | 77c | 1,019$785 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.46 | 110 | 55.5%61 W · 49 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe18a…fd87backed Yes | 23c | 1,000$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230 | 49 | 28.6%14 W · 35 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +47.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…aa5abacked No | 77c | 924.56$710 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.27 | 64 | 71.9%46 W · 18 L | +9.9wins | +0.15per pick | 56cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Yes | 15c | 909.26$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.85 | 466 | 44.8%209 W · 257 L | -23.0wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed Yes | 29c | 862$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.98 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 16c | 829.96$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.47 | 988 | 44.4%439 W · 549 L | -11.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 74c | 743.27$547 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.38 | 437 | 48.3%211 W · 226 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked No | 74c | 539.91$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.31 | 300 | 55.3%166 W · 134 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x076b…dbfabacked No | 73c | 399.99$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +70.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc19d…7204backed Yes | 27c | 370.37$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4747…2987backed Yes | 24c | 333.33$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5016…58e4backed Yes | 27c | 331.8$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.59 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +4.1wins | +0.18per pick | 26cpaid | +85.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e7…b14fbacked Yes | 27c | 269$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.63 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc8…f45bbacked Yes | 16c | 218.75$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 73 | 34.2%25 W · 48 L | +6.6wins | +0.09per pick | 25cpaid | +44.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x22d2…82d7backed Yes | 7c | 212.11$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.72 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4781…336dbacked No | 78c | 205.13$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.13 | 90 | 65.6%59 W · 31 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Yes | 11c | 203.27$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.71 | 247 | 32.4%80 W · 167 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Yes | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 106 | 33%35 W · 71 L | -5.4wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed Yes | 26c | 190.78$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.83 | 51 | 29.4%15 W · 36 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1624…bf63backed Yes | 6c | 177.74$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 94 | 31.9%30 W · 64 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked No | 75c | 97.95$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.98 | 117 | 52.1%61 W · 56 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 75c | 96.96$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.18 | 168 | 58.3%98 W · 70 L | +7.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed No | 74c | 61.55$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.96 | 110 | 57.3%63 W · 47 L | +7.8wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd354…ff2fbacked No | 76c | 46.04$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.05 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 72cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed No | 77c | 36$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.28 | 69 | 55.1%38 W · 31 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e1…c20abacked No | 74c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0466…b3a5backed No | 78c | 24.36$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c9d…8d82backed No | 75c | 21.06$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.27 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed No | 80c | 15.49$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.12 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfacd…d470backed No | 76c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.6 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 76cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f3a…b960backed No | 75c | 14.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +61.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Australian A League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Macarthur FC win on 2026-03-15?this page
- Will Melbourne Victory FC vs. Macarthur FC end in a draw?No won
- Will Melbourne Victory FC win on 2026-03-15?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.