Australian A League · resolved market
Will Melbourne Victory FC vs. Macarthur FC end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaff33402f4a77a85a2b02bc42ae7de24bec1b7921ce54716e5dcaae25abf1108
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Australian A Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,991
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,001
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,991 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Australian A League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Australian A League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x52d8…99aebacked No | 76c | 5,000$3,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,199.99 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Yes | 24c | 2,640$634 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$633.6 | 305 | 36.1%110 W · 195 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 78c | 2,338$1,827 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$510.71 | 466 | 44.8%209 W · 257 L | -23.0wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 76c | 1,221$927 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$293.96 | 149 | 55.7%83 W · 66 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc19d…7204backed Yes | 24c | 1,042$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc686…5a55backed Yes | 21c | 952.38$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -2.2wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 79c | 923.7$726 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.14 | 988 | 44.4%439 W · 549 L | -11.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa10e…4ea1backed Yes | 24c | 833.33$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a1d…8986backed Yes | 23c | 785.77$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.32 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed Yes | 22c | 727.1$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.33 | 148 | 43.9%65 W · 83 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12d9…01bbbacked Yes | 21c | 500$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 93 | 36.6%34 W · 59 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x370f…c4e4backed Yes | 24c | 500$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfabc…2134backed Yes | 25c | 500$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 140 | 60.7%85 W · 55 L | +19.7wins | +0.14per pick | 47cpaid | +31%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x7250…f52fbacked Yes | 23c | 499.99$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc3…0670backed Yes | 22c | 458.64$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +2.4wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0438…9d98backed Yes | 24c | 416.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 81 | 39.5%32 W · 49 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2be…56f2backed Yes | 25c | 401.48$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked No | 78c | 392.46$306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.34 | 41 | 24.4%10 W · 31 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes | 24c | 379.15$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91 | 437 | 48.3%211 W · 226 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4747…2987backed Yes | 24c | 333.33$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7681…ac03backed Yes | 12c | 299.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 51 | 19.6%10 W · 41 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1624…bf63backed No | 77c | 263.93$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.8 | 94 | 31.9%30 W · 64 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed No | 76c | 247$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.28 | 101 | 60.4%61 W · 40 L | +7.1wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5ab5…ff12backed Yes | 23c | 217.39$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed No | 77c | 168.57$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.77 | 193 | 45.1%87 W · 106 L | -7.0wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Yes | 23c | 164.09$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.93 | 168 | 58.3%98 W · 70 L | +7.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Yes | 19c | 158.93$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.48 | 140 | 47.1%66 W · 74 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc8…f45bbacked Yes | 20c | 148.36$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 73 | 34.2%25 W · 48 L | +6.6wins | +0.09per pick | 25cpaid | +44.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9b…e74abacked Yes | 19c | 105.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 80 | 50%40 W · 40 L | +6.1wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed No | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 110 | 57.3%63 W · 47 L | +7.8wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfccd…02d6backed No | 76c | 99.98$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 64cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67e6…86edbacked Yes | 25c | 99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked No | 77c | 91$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.93 | 119 | 40.3%48 W · 71 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaaca…c634backed Yes | 20c | 87$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fb…74f3backed Yes | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +2.6wins | +0.16per pick | 27cpaid | +70.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6cd7…60e4backed Yes | 26c | 78.08$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Yes | 18c | 73.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.23 | 247 | 32.4%80 W · 167 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked No | 75c | 71.42$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.86 | 117 | 52.1%61 W · 56 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed Yes | 16c | 67.94$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.89 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e72…54f0backed No | 77c | 64.91$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.93 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed Yes | 22c | 57.01$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.76 | 108 | 57.4%62 W · 46 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 80c | 55$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 131 | 49.6%65 W · 66 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e1…c20abacked Yes | 21c | 55$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.78 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5286…6dcbbacked Yes | 23c | 44$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked No | 75c | 33.4$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.35 | 40 | 55%22 W · 18 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x344b…f7fcbacked No | 76c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 79c | 29.3$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.15 | 478 | 50.8%243 W · 235 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed No | 76c | 28$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.72 | 69 | 55.1%38 W · 31 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked No | 76c | 13.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.18 | 300 | 55.3%166 W · 134 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Australian A League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Melbourne Victory FC vs. Macarthur FC end in a draw?this page
- Will Macarthur FC win on 2026-03-15?No won
- Will Melbourne Victory FC win on 2026-03-15?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.