Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on August 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7892ff8288d13ff0a7053a04c8a481952ddb702d1f0b4e70ce592d872175d2fa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,436
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,891
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,436 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6a97…395bbacked Yes | 11c | 2,293$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.56 | 336 | 28.9%97 W · 239 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 12c | 2,044$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.8 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x441a…e9c7backed No | 79c | 1,013$797 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.83 | 395 | 43.5%172 W · 223 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5556…d729backed Yes | 13c | 864.91$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.67 | 76 | 50%38 W · 38 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd2fc…5bd4backed Yes | 19c | 596.65$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 386 | 33.4%129 W · 257 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3f0…a4ccbacked Yes | 11c | 475.69$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.8 | 235 | 40.9%96 W · 139 L | +10.5wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc7b…7a75backed Yes | 14c | 410.03$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.58 | 271 | 29.2%79 W · 192 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefdb…007bbacked Yes | 13c | 404.99$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 52 | 25%13 W · 39 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd19…3f54backed Yes | 14c | 399.99$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.53 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd195…7b7cbacked Yes | 11c | 317.98$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.98 | 87 | 32.2%28 W · 59 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x518c…d366backed Yes | 16c | 270.74$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.1 | 86 | 37.2%32 W · 54 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…0020backed Yes | 14c | 260.45$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.46 | 389 | 30.3%118 W · 271 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 10c | 242.58$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34d5…a977backed Yes | 13c | 205.01$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.02 | 230 | 30.9%71 W · 159 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2141…7fa2backed Yes | 21c | 184$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.8 | 182 | 19.2%35 W · 147 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3910…ba74backed Yes | 15c | 173.17$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 172 | 31.4%54 W · 118 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 14c | 138$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.32 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2dd7…55a0backed Yes | 22c | 136.36$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 295 | 36.9%109 W · 186 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 10c | 130.48$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.87 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe828…ae41backed Yes | 17c | 129.76$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.47 | 90 | 27.8%25 W · 65 L | -10.0wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…5f89backed Yes | 10c | 119.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 949 | 19.7%187 W · 762 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7b9…9772backed No | 79c | 100$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccd7…d588backed Yes | 16c | 86.24$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.53 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.17per pick | 48cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x52dc…33c9backed Yes | 12c | 84.71$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 769 | 36.3%279 W · 490 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 77c | 70$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.9 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b6…0d2bbacked No | 73c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 143 | 72%103 W · 40 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ab7…0bd3backed Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 445 | 36.6%163 W · 282 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd04e…122ebacked Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 68 | 36.8%25 W · 43 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3f…5d84backed No | 73c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 802 | 75.7%607 W · 195 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…d572backed No | 79c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.45 | 374 | 65.2%244 W · 130 L | +23.4wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on August 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on August 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on August 5?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 34°C on August 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 35°C on August 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 36°C on August 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.