Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on August 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdb4dfd8193464dc49160c792186aab465de3e4b69cacd4aecdc14a7ee7ae39d7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,469
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,894
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,469 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 142 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked No | 66c | 1,534$1,013 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,012.54 | 720 | 42.2%304 W · 416 L | +26.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 68c | 952.23$652 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$651.68 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d8e…735bbacked Yes | 34c | 899.99$306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$593.99 | 237 | 31.6%75 W · 162 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86b1…c094backed No | 22c | 891.07$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.28 | 273 | 28.6%78 W · 195 L | -10.4wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 38c | 801.05$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306.44 | 382 | 43.2%165 W · 217 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefdb…007bbacked Yes | 33c | 788.21$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$530.97 | 52 | 25%13 W · 39 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5556…d729backed Yes | 44c | 769.5$342 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$427.77 | 76 | 50%38 W · 38 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x441a…e9c7backed Yes | 26c | 722.4$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$534.58 | 395 | 43.5%172 W · 223 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 37c | 634.99$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.5 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 58c | 518.01$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.8 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd2fc…5bd4backed Yes | 55c | 452.86$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.86 | 386 | 33.4%129 W · 257 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 58c | 420.34$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.84 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 47c | 384.87$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.87 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd195…7b7cbacked Yes | 34c | 384$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.5 | 87 | 32.2%28 W · 59 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…346abacked Yes | 68c | 379.99$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.79 | 59 | 35.6%21 W · 38 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 5c | 371.59$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.58 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x71cb…15b0backed Yes | 26c | 355.32$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.94 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc7b…7a75backed Yes | 41c | 342.91$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.32 | 271 | 29.2%79 W · 192 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x518c…d366backed Yes | 47c | 324.42$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.31 | 86 | 37.2%32 W · 54 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd17e…7a0cbacked Yes | 32c | 317.85$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.4 | 189 | 45.5%86 W · 103 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 19c | 314.04$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.11 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 46c | 303.93$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.65 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14ad…69f5backed Yes | 34c | 294.11$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.11 | 267 | 44.2%118 W · 149 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc959…c37fbacked Yes | 38c | 264.12$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.12 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7e9…fb3cbacked No | 9c | 259.29$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.99 | 190 | 60.5%115 W · 75 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb1…bb12backed Yes | 30c | 258$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.6 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 17c | 255.02$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.12 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xae22…8794backed Yes | 32c | 246.51$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.73 | 462 | 32.9%152 W · 310 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8839…ddb5backed Yes | 32c | 240$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.17 | 218 | 65.6%143 W · 75 L | +9.2wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa1cc…6171backed Yes | 72c | 226.53$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.38 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 62c | 222.54$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.73 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 62c | 217.57$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.82 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed Yes | 29c | 215$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.1 | 548 | 53.1%291 W · 257 L | -28.7wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x268f…bbd7backed Yes | 29c | 210$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.1 | 99 | 38.4%38 W · 61 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12f5…5ac4backed Yes | 30c | 210$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147 | 112 | 40.2%45 W · 67 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…0020backed Yes | 37c | 206.5$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.45 | 389 | 30.3%118 W · 271 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 67c | 205.76$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.6 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 66c | 189.19$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.21 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 66c | 176.52$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.31 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34d5…a977backed Yes | 28c | 168$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.96 | 230 | 30.9%71 W · 159 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked Yes | 41c | 162.54$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.15 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3f0…a4ccbacked Yes | 31c | 153.44$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.34 | 235 | 40.9%96 W · 139 L | +10.5wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ce…49e0backed Yes | 67c | 152$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.25 | 455 | 40%182 W · 273 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2139…4ca8backed Yes | 77c | 150$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.5 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3808…57efbacked Yes | 68c | 147.17$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.18 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 31c | 146.55$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.62 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a25…ba81backed No | 34c | 140.59$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.62 | 617 | 60.1%371 W · 246 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d7…a338backed No | 9c | 140.38$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.08 | 290 | 37.9%110 W · 180 L | +29.1wins | +0.10per pick | 28cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 35c | 132.6$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.97 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x97ce…ddadbacked Yes | 33c | 127.58$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.87 | 129 | 39.5%51 W · 78 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 69c | 125.84$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.3 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb141…aa3bbacked No | 59c | 120$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.8 | 124 | 53.2%66 W · 58 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 22c | 118.14$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.66 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 66c | 116.62$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 68c | 112$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2141…7fa2backed Yes | 29c | 110.56$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.98 | 182 | 19.2%35 W · 147 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 36c | 108$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.85 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 65c | 107.32$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.66 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3910…ba74backed Yes | 34c | 102.94$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.94 | 172 | 31.4%54 W · 118 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed Yes | 57c | 100$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 62c | 100$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.1 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fb…c038backed Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73 | 439 | 32.8%144 W · 295 L | +20.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeef1…21b8backed Yes | 43c | 99.09$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.96 | 435 | 40.5%176 W · 259 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2dd7…55a0backed Yes | 41c | 97.56$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.56 | 295 | 36.9%109 W · 186 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 42c | 90$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.2 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6243…e014backed No | 11c | 89.98$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.06 | 232 | 43.5%101 W · 131 L | +24.3wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +25%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 44c | 87.53$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.45 | 403 | 37.2%150 W · 253 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7aed…df39backed No | 69c | 86$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.08 | 350 | 63.1%221 W · 129 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe117…1b4bbacked Yes | 35c | 85.71$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.71 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +2.8wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +38%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 70c | 84.57$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.2 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 43c | 83.99$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.54 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 40c | 81.23$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.08 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 37c | 81.08$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.08 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65ce…6ff8backed No | 41c | 79.01$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.4 | 193 | 45.6%88 W · 105 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x098d…6cc2backed Yes | 77c | 78.77$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.29 | 38 | 81.6%31 W · 7 L | +4.6wins | +0.12per pick | 70cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 62c | 76$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.67 | 667 | 58%387 W · 280 L | +48.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 43c | 74$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.71 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf3f…b631backed No | 67c | 73.63$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.33 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -2.4wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea21…f753backed Yes | 71c | 70.08$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.36 | 236 | 68.2%161 W · 75 L | +18.8wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3784…1f34backed Yes | 70c | 68$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.17 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -28%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x118b…38c8backed Yes | 56c | 67.34$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.34 | 85 | 42.4%36 W · 49 L | +4.7wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe1db…d0fabacked Yes | 46c | 65.76$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.76 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a7e…9dc6backed Yes | 27c | 64.62$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.32 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.35per pick | 45cpaid | +108%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 59c | 64.2$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.88 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 47c | 63.56$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.69 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 71c | 60$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.71 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1546…778bbacked No | 40c | 60$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.8 | 354 | 29.9%106 W · 248 L | -17.6wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 65c | 58$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.7 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 60c | 51.56$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.78 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b49…2e46backed No | 65c | 50.91$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.09 | 52 | 67.3%35 W · 17 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x304b…a619backed No | 73c | 50$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.5 | 275 | 52%143 W · 132 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ab7…0bd3backed Yes | 51c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.53 | 445 | 36.6%163 W · 282 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed No | 65c | 50$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e4…4abebacked Yes | 26c | 48$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.52 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.74per pick | 26cpaid | +284.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8694…7dafbacked Yes | 27c | 47$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.33 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 22c | 45.91$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x175c…2a68backed Yes | 59c | 45.57$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.57 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +3.9wins | +0.24per pick | 45cpaid | +41.8%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 42c | 45$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.1 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a1…5e41backed Yes | 39c | 41.03$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.03 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +3.7wins | +0.15per pick | 41cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf361…783abacked Yes | 78c | 41$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.1 | 77 | 63.6%49 W · 28 L | +6.8wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on August 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on August 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on August 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 34°C on August 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 35°C on August 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 36°C on August 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.