Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 34°C on August 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x856c5b43d269b2cf4ed7fbe628f418cca4a02c75b0cbd6db6960ec22da3456bd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,085
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,889
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,085 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 115 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 39c | 828.34$326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325.76 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 76c | 666.38$507 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.41 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86b1…c094backed Yes | 14c | 640.7$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.81 | 273 | 28.6%78 W · 195 L | -10.4wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc7b…7a75backed No | 64c | 499.99$321 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.47 | 271 | 29.2%79 W · 192 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 78c | 322.36$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.48 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefdb…007bbacked Yes | 22c | 320.01$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.4 | 52 | 25%13 W · 39 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 32c | 298.41$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.49 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5556…d729backed Yes | 26c | 251.35$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.1 | 76 | 50%38 W · 38 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7b18…efaebacked No | 63c | 248.46$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.91 | 49 | 57.1%28 W · 21 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2dd7…55a0backed Yes | 32c | 235.41$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 295 | 36.9%109 W · 186 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97ce…ddadbacked Yes | 30c | 232.16$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.34 | 129 | 39.5%51 W · 78 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 23c | 227.38$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.87 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 61c | 222.55$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.24 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 60c | 213$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.2 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1cc…6171backed Yes | 32c | 208.51$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.18 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 60c | 207.16$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.96 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed No | 61c | 200$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.2 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fb…c038backed Yes | 39c | 200$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.6 | 439 | 32.8%144 W · 295 L | +20.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 17c | 199.35$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.74 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 33c | 198.62$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.12 | 403 | 37.2%150 W · 253 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a97…395bbacked Yes | 35c | 195.69$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.08 | 336 | 28.9%97 W · 239 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 39c | 188.44$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.49 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed No | 64c | 185.98$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.95 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 34c | 173.48$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.76 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8116…465dbacked Yes | 28c | 172.85$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.89 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 35c | 165.28$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.14 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7e9…fb3cbacked Yes | 8c | 152$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.62 | 190 | 60.5%115 W · 75 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 14c | 150.37$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.05 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ccc…61dfbacked Yes | 11c | 150$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 142 | 33.1%47 W · 95 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 62c | 149.94$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.31 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf733…297dbacked Yes | 20c | 146.37$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.6 | 175 | 11.4%20 W · 155 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 78c | 145.33$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.67 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 33c | 138.11$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.01 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 61c | 126.36$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.31 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0546…17a9backed No | 74c | 125.57$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.8 | 47 | 70.2%33 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 62c | 121.86$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.9 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…d934backed Yes | 11c | 116.56$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.87 | 644 | 60.6%390 W · 254 L | +92.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 32c | 106$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.96 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x518c…d366backed Yes | 31c | 101.05$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.36 | 86 | 37.2%32 W · 54 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 66c | 100$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.05 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.36 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x01a5…0e36backed No | 69c | 99.99$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5203…b975backed Yes | 38c | 99.99$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 186 | 41.4%77 W · 109 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b97…6084backed Yes | 36c | 99.96$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.99 | 170 | 28.8%49 W · 121 L | -12.9wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…0020backed Yes | 39c | 97.8$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.14 | 389 | 30.3%118 W · 271 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 39c | 95.02$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.05 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb4…c6d7backed No | 71c | 92$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.68 | 371 | 50.4%187 W · 184 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84e3…3dfdbacked No | 69c | 89.75$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.82 | 148 | 78.4%116 W · 32 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d7…a338backed Yes | 23c | 86.39$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 290 | 37.9%110 W · 180 L | +29.1wins | +0.10per pick | 28cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec6…b459backed Yes | 18c | 86.02$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.46 | 381 | 46.5%177 W · 204 L | +19.8wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ce…49e0backed Yes | 23c | 83.75$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.33 | 455 | 40%182 W · 273 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1570…de29backed No | 60c | 83.33$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 440 | 58.2%256 W · 184 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe117…1b4bbacked No | 62c | 80.15$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.15 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +2.8wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +38%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 22c | 76$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.7 | 667 | 58%387 W · 280 L | +48.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x180e…29dfbacked Yes | 40c | 75.66$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.01 | 508 | 60.4%307 W · 201 L | +18.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 71c | 74$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.38 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f02…c78fbacked No | 77c | 70$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 63cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbab…9c6dbacked Yes | 24c | 68.58$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.64 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 58c | 67.79$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.42 | 688 | 67.2%462 W · 226 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79d9…9275backed No | 76c | 65.88$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.11 | 385 | 60.3%232 W · 153 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x379a…4b1abacked Yes | 41c | 65.5$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.86 | 429 | 48%206 W · 223 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 41c | 60$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.44 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 60c | 58.47$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.17 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe795…99c9backed Yes | 38c | 51.53$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.58 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3f0…a4ccbacked Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 235 | 40.9%96 W · 139 L | +10.5wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8839…ddb5backed No | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 218 | 65.6%143 W · 75 L | +9.2wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e2…06f4backed No | 61c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 184 | 49.5%91 W · 93 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 72c | 49.47$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.08 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 57c | 48.98$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.83 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3eb…b529backed Yes | 29c | 48$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.92 | 616 | 29.4%181 W · 435 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e42…4938backed Yes | 30c | 48$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.22 | 388 | 30.2%117 W · 271 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b4d…01c3backed Yes | 28c | 46.22$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.76 | 129 | 39.5%51 W · 78 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52dc…33c9backed No | 76c | 46.12$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.12 | 769 | 36.3%279 W · 490 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 78c | 45.91$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.19 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc50c…3017backed Yes | 38c | 45.74$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.44 | 152 | 58.6%89 W · 63 L | -8.5wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -11%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7aed…df39backed No | 74c | 45.73$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.02 | 350 | 63.1%221 W · 129 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 41c | 45.25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.55 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 60c | 44.49$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.99 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd71…1281backed Yes | 27c | 40.91$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.89 | 539 | 51.9%280 W · 259 L | +54.4wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xee25…63ccbacked Yes | 38c | 40.52$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 200 | 56.5%113 W · 87 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a1…5e41backed Yes | 37c | 40.13$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.9 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +3.7wins | +0.15per pick | 41cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…346abacked Yes | 33c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 59 | 35.6%21 W · 38 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe59d…b97bbacked Yes | 38c | 39.45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 524 | 46.2%242 W · 282 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x567f…94b9backed Yes | 36c | 36.93$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.46 | 489 | 19.2%94 W · 395 L | -38.7wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 62c | 36.72$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.95 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7eec…c8edbacked No | 70c | 35.56$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.6 | 197 | 69.5%137 W · 60 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed Yes | 42c | 35.36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd04e…122ebacked Yes | 38c | 29.97$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.34 | 68 | 36.8%25 W · 43 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 76c | 29.12$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.09 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe92e…7cfcbacked Yes | 43c | 29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.43 | 543 | 35%190 W · 353 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 77c | 27.65$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.46 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 77c | 27$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.14 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 61c | 26.03$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.15 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed No | 77c | 25.83$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.83 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 61c | 25.5$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.95 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2df6…ef98backed No | 75c | 25.42$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.47 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 79c | 25.13$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.23 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x31af…5c86backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 318 | 36.8%117 W · 201 L | +8.2wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 63c | 24.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.24 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 62c | 24.52$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.32 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 34°C on August 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on August 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on August 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on August 5?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 35°C on August 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 36°C on August 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.