Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on August 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x78a1b0807f83a188107ef90e339915cf7be48935138f52a7d3131d370d7f6d4c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,798
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,037
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,798 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 20c | 970.58$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.96 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 21c | 509.96$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.96 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed No | 74c | 429.99$316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.92 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 75c | 374.77$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.63 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c1b…d915backed Yes | 5c | 276.12$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.88 | 263 | 44.9%118 W · 145 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 23c | 265.65$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.8 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed No | 80c | 250.3$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.06 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 20c | 215.74$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.17 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba7…3d88backed No | 79c | 212$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.18 | 478 | 66.5%318 W · 160 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 20c | 161.97$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.78 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f40…887cbacked Yes | 19c | 160.96$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.89 | 56 | 14.3%8 W · 48 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 20c | 159.72$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.84 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 16c | 148.24$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.23 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4453…fc75backed Yes | 22c | 144.5$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.99 | 65 | 27.7%18 W · 47 L | +4.9wins | +0.07per pick | 20cpaid | +68.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…b496backed Yes | 36c | 139.96$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 56 | 37.5%21 W · 35 L | -7.8wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 19c | 131$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.38 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x517d…f41fbacked No | 76c | 125$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 130 | 48.5%63 W · 67 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 16c | 121.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 70c | 118.88$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.53 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 79c | 106$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.09 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 20c | 104.03$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.61 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked Yes | 17c | 91.66$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.65 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 79c | 89$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.29 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 23c | 87.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.15 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 75c | 78.96$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.74 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 79c | 75.88$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.88 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a59…8e5cbacked Yes | 25c | 72$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 303 | 33%100 W · 203 L | +16.1wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f9…8d24backed Yes | 20c | 72$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 477 | 38.8%185 W · 292 L | +18.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb80c…827bbacked Yes | 21c | 66$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.62 | 277 | 54.9%152 W · 125 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc448…085ebacked No | 72c | 65$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.2 | 219 | 19.6%43 W · 176 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x490e…123abacked Yes | 23c | 61.27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.33 | 62 | 43.5%27 W · 35 L | +6.8wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4e77…54cfbacked Yes | 22c | 55.75$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 319 | 43.3%138 W · 181 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 28c | 46.33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.03 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 36c | 40.94$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.84 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 80c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f1d…c41dbacked No | 78c | 38.89$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.51 | 218 | 47.7%104 W · 114 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…7bf9backed No | 80c | 37.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 546 | 56.4%308 W · 238 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35fd…4d53backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe419…8aedbacked No | 78c | 24.54$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.3 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -5.5wins | -0.16per pick | 59cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 21.96$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.1 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbd…3bedbacked No | 80c | 21.36$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.27 | 375 | 41.6%156 W · 219 L | -52.4wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -28%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 80c | 17.35$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.47 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 75c | 15.6$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.9 | 847 | 59.4%503 W · 344 L | +41.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xced6…2dc1backed No | 78c | 15.19$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.34 | 280 | 68.6%192 W · 88 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on August 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be 77°F or below on August 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on August 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on August 5?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on August 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on August 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.