Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on August 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf5efd8f5cd289cbc64988f238e8413371039a4d06e26ab4c3d045bb3b4e4f076
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $45,471
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $46,655
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $45,471 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbc8c…273fbacked Yes | 0c | 35,291$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 10cpaid | -74.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 15c | 546.49$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.32 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68a3…5dd5backed Yes | 28c | 365.34$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.02 | 467 | 43.7%204 W · 263 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4cc…2a5ebacked No | 79c | 311.04$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.76 | 50 | 44%22 W · 28 L | -12.1wins | -0.24per pick | 68cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 27c | 299$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.9 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked No | 71c | 243.82$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.64 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed Yes | 27c | 236.04$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.79 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 76c | 195.02$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.69 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8be…487abacked Yes | 19c | 175$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.92 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +2.2wins | +0.12per pick | 43cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 71c | 161.55$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.52 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 24c | 155$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.46 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 74c | 137.49$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.9 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 24c | 133.12$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.74 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x180e…29dfbacked Yes | 26c | 115.02$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.14 | 508 | 60.4%307 W · 201 L | +18.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 75c | 105.41$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 75c | 104$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.95 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x517d…f41fbacked Yes | 21c | 100.1$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.24 | 130 | 48.5%63 W · 67 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed Yes | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.36 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 69c | 97.82$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.32 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e8d2backed Yes | 28c | 90$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 565 | 43.5%246 W · 319 L | -31.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 75c | 90$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.08 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 31c | 87.82$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.22 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x379a…4b1abacked Yes | 31c | 87.34$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.84 | 429 | 48%206 W · 223 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 74c | 80.14$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.69 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed Yes | 22c | 78.14$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.55 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc448…085ebacked Yes | 20c | 74.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.25 | 219 | 19.6%43 W · 176 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1096…a162backed Yes | 26c | 68$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.71 | 475 | 38.1%181 W · 294 L | +15.9wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79d9…9275backed No | 76c | 65.78$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.86 | 385 | 60.3%232 W · 153 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 28c | 65.41$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.06 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdfa…dc55backed Yes | 25c | 65$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.09 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +3.0wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x73e7…8b59backed Yes | 28c | 63.08$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.65 | 434 | 41.5%180 W · 254 L | +29.3wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7be1…6f94backed Yes | 32c | 62.49$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 21 | 71.4%15 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 62cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde0a…004ebacked No | 77c | 60$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 283 | 68.6%194 W · 89 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked Yes | 27c | 58.73$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.64 | 1,211 | 29.8%361 W · 850 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes | 22c | 58.25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.06 | 695 | 20%139 W · 556 L | -44.4wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc057…0c9abacked Yes | 19c | 58.19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 68 | 20.6%14 W · 54 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed Yes | 29c | 57.06$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.55 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 67c | 56.12$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.72 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a97…395bbacked Yes | 37c | 53.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.55 | 336 | 28.9%97 W · 239 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fe9…64adbacked Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 213 | 39%83 W · 130 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3636…34c4backed No | 67c | 49.99$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 292 | 81.5%238 W · 54 L | +27.9wins | +0.10per pick | 72cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 32c | 49.36$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.81 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 76c | 47$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.09 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67f4…df0fbacked No | 79c | 44.48$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.48 | 102 | 65.7%67 W · 35 L | -6.0wins | -0.06per pick | 72cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 69c | 40.43$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.68 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 73c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 76c | 39.44$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.44 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf27a…78d8backed Yes | 28c | 39.16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 249 | 42.6%106 W · 143 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x902b…6e29backed No | 76c | 36.31$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.55 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 73cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcac8…f4eabacked No | 67c | 33.64$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 61c | 32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.48 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 76c | 31.47$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.58 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 79c | 27.22$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.78 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…dc90backed No | 71c | 26.68$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.74 | 591 | 44.5%263 W · 328 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 72c | 25.67$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.18 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf83e…4663backed No | 77c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.75 | 281 | 63.7%179 W · 102 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 76c | 24$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.76 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e28…4983backed No | 76c | 18.54$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.43 | 336 | 54.2%182 W · 154 L | -9.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 75c | 18.34$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.51 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 71c | 16.89$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.9 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3334…69b0backed No | 71c | 16.68$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.84 | 464 | 44.4%206 W · 258 L | -18.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb80c…827bbacked No | 64c | 16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.72 | 277 | 54.9%152 W · 125 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on August 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be 77°F or below on August 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on August 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on August 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on August 5?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on August 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.