Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on August 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x10c8ea6fdbcca64930d32105b5473e61a3acf64bdbed8c7386a43b6112efd928
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $50,539
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $53,383
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $50,539 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 85 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbc8c…273fbacked No | 0c | 37,288$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 10cpaid | -74.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 47c | 1,094$509 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$585.35 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked No | 16c | 333.35$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.25 | 695 | 20%139 W · 556 L | -44.4wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe7e9…fb3cbacked No | 12c | 320.3$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.12 | 190 | 60.5%115 W · 75 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b97…6084backed Yes | 47c | 299.96$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.98 | 170 | 28.8%49 W · 121 L | -12.9wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 19c | 263.1$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.71 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 54c | 246$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.84 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 60c | 238.7$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.58 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x070f…e902backed No | 19c | 211.11$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.11 | 114 | 59.6%68 W · 46 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5203…b975backed Yes | 49c | 200$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.15 | 186 | 41.4%77 W · 109 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3904…539bbacked No | 14c | 186.31$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.79 | 427 | 62.8%268 W · 159 L | +16.3wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 51c | 184.09$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.44 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed No | 22c | 165.56$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.25 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 8c | 160$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 46c | 159.98$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.59 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 50c | 159.75$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.65 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 51c | 158.54$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.57 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 56c | 155$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.19 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 48c | 150.67$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.96 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 41c | 140.91$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.19 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 29c | 133$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.83 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4829…97ebbacked Yes | 77c | 129.37$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.37 | 399 | 51.1%204 W · 195 L | +14.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7be1…6f94backed No | 24c | 102.3$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 21 | 71.4%15 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 62cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 40c | 99.02$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.41 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 40c | 92.17$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.3 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 54c | 90$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.6 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked Yes | 48c | 89$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.04 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 52c | 87.34$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.42 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 46c | 87.13$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.14 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa71d…29f0backed No | 49c | 84.31$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.31 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 52c | 82.93$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.46 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 53c | 81.07$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.16 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…8b5ebacked Yes | 54c | 80$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.96 | 141 | 51.8%73 W · 68 L | +10.3wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 48c | 76.41$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.3 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed Yes | 51c | 75$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.75 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 33c | 74.58$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.56 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbd…3bedbacked No | 54c | 72.38$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.08 | 375 | 41.6%156 W · 219 L | -52.4wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -28%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 52c | 68.95$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.1 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 50c | 68.64$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.56 | 688 | 67.2%462 W · 226 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1096…a162backed Yes | 49c | 66.98$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 475 | 38.1%181 W · 294 L | +15.9wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbdfa…dc55backed Yes | 50c | 65$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +3.0wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 21c | 63.94$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.52 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 52c | 63.76$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.16 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 17c | 63.35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 847 | 59.4%503 W · 344 L | +41.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x831a…ad82backed No | 50c | 51.7$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.94 | 196 | 48.5%95 W · 101 L | +9.9wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad9d…e09dbacked Yes | 48c | 50.06$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.06 | 253 | 42.3%107 W · 146 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3334…69b0backed Yes | 54c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.2 | 464 | 44.4%206 W · 258 L | -18.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8be…487abacked No | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +2.2wins | +0.12per pick | 43cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 49c | 48.55$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.76 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb84c…e169backed No | 54c | 44$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.76 | 417 | 52%217 W · 200 L | -11.4wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 50c | 43$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.64 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c1b…d915backed Yes | 48c | 42.99$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.32 | 263 | 44.9%118 W · 145 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x70c4…1008backed No | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 333 | 50.2%167 W · 166 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x234c…90dbbacked Yes | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 581 | 38.9%226 W · 355 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x65f7…86ddbacked No | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 257 | 58%149 W · 108 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed Yes | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.2 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 52c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 52c | 39.12$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.24 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 63c | 37.87$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.16 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed Yes | 49c | 34.4$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.6 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 48c | 34.08$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.72 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0d…849cbacked No | 47c | 34.04$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 41 | 53.7%22 W · 19 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 49c | 31.79$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.23 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 50c | 31.46$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.59 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0506…bc49backed Yes | 53c | 30.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.57 | 56 | 58.9%33 W · 23 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf27a…78d8backed Yes | 50c | 29.8$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.8 | 249 | 42.6%106 W · 143 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…1957backed Yes | 45c | 28.66$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.86 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +123.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e28…4983backed No | 51c | 27.67$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.11 | 336 | 54.2%182 W · 154 L | -9.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe419…8aedbacked No | 50c | 25.91$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.83 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -5.5wins | -0.16per pick | 59cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 47c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 48c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc98c…7e81backed No | 50c | 24.94$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.47 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.26per pick | 59cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 53c | 24.69$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.08 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0da…3ff6backed No | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 176 | 58%102 W · 74 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa86f…022cbacked No | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 397 | 68.8%273 W · 124 L | +11.3wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…b496backed No | 60c | 19.69$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 56 | 37.5%21 W · 35 L | -7.8wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xdd02…e9afbacked Yes | 70c | 19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.7 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa26f…e9bfbacked Yes | 69c | 18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.58 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -3.0wins | -0.13per pick | 61cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa23b…b787backed Yes | 70c | 17.85$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.36 | 73 | 50.7%37 W · 36 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15ce…7a5dbacked Yes | 75c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.8 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb53a…29c6backed Yes | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 62cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on August 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be 77°F or below on August 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on August 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on August 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on August 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on August 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.