MLB · resolved market
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x78cdbaa2d2cc5fed4ddcab5a26458512be95bd08a9cb7225b06c7dc15b42d2c3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,510
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,109
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,510 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked Under | 54c | 9,110$4,884 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,226.13 | 1,385 | 49.5%685 W · 700 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Over | 46c | 3,808$1,733 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,733.22 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Over | 47c | 2,791$1,312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,311.63 | 1,572 | 48.3%759 W · 813 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 51c | 2,358$1,198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,197.53 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16e5…6373backed Under | 57c | 2,300$1,311 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$989 | 86 | 58.1%50 W · 36 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa66d…6daabacked Under | 55c | 2,273$1,250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,022.73 | 211 | 47.9%101 W · 110 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Over | 54c | 1,994$1,067 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,067.06 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 47c | 1,993$929 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,063.85 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78b0…9f1abacked Over | 47c | 1,915$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$900 | 390 | 47.4%185 W · 205 L | -11.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27f7…44b0backed Over | 46c | 1,860$856 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$855.6 | 920 | 54%497 W · 423 L | +23.1wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50c3…ace1backed Under | 46c | 1,200$552 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$648 | 866 | 53%459 W · 407 L | +16.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f38…39f2backed Under | 55c | 1,167$642 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$525.08 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | -3.6wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 43c | 1,037$446 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$446.17 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 73c | 974.04$708 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.84 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 38c | 889$338 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$551.3 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ea…b781backed Over | 45c | 753.7$339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$339.17 | 568 | 51.4%292 W · 276 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c57…40febacked Over | 45c | 753.7$339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$339.17 | 215 | 50.2%108 W · 107 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 46c | 704.88$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325.03 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 40c | 665.91$267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$398.77 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0520…3efdbacked Over | 60c | 628$377 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$376.8 | 532 | 61.8%329 W · 203 L | +20.6wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd38…99d4backed Under | 52c | 509.27$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.37 | 267 | 59.2%158 W · 109 L | +17.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x04b9…79e0backed Over | 49c | 500$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245 | 550 | 52.4%288 W · 262 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 50c | 429.37$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.78 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe94c…1edebacked Over | 46c | 423.91$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195 | 124 | 49.2%61 W · 63 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45d5…a7a0backed Over | 52c | 370.08$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.44 | 827 | 41.1%340 W · 487 L | -21.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Under | 53c | 319.86$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.47 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa804…bdc1backed Over | 46c | 293$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.78 | 84 | 46.4%39 W · 45 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c6f…014ebacked Under | 54c | 288.73$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.82 | 73 | 49.3%36 W · 37 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Over | 47c | 269.06$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.46 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Under | 48c | 263$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.76 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Under | 53c | 226.37$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.4 | 1,836 | 50.8%932 W · 904 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad88…3c1ebacked Under | 50c | 220$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110 | 483 | 54.7%264 W · 219 L | +20.8wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Over | 24c | 206$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.38 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0684…d1fabacked Under | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.82 | 70 | 37.1%26 W · 44 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 46c | 145.5$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.93 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…8f79backed Over | 46c | 108.7$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 399 | 48.1%192 W · 207 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa877…2e20backed Under | 48c | 105$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.6 | 726 | 48.1%349 W · 377 L | -17.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec92…6b59backed Under | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -3.1wins | -0.21per pick | 48cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…b23ebacked Over | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1,279 | 51.2%655 W · 624 L | -19.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4dea…5e23backed Over | 49c | 88$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.12 | 425 | 50.1%213 W · 212 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Under | 41c | 87$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.07 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x341b…b92cbacked Over | 46c | 84.78$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb0b…62cdbacked Under | 51c | 78.43$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.43 | 795 | 43%342 W · 453 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83ce…835cbacked Under | 54c | 76$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.96 | 507 | 48.7%247 W · 260 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbc9…d80bbacked Over | 46c | 73.7$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.9 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Over | 49c | 72$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.28 | 722 | 47.6%344 W · 378 L | -12.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 47c | 67.44$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.74 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…0df5backed Over | 54c | 66.5$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.81 | 997 | 44.1%440 W · 557 L | -38.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc6…b20dbacked Over | 46c | 50.82$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.38 | 619 | 48.6%301 W · 318 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed Over | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7242…ac6fbacked Under | 55c | 43$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.35 | 131 | 52.7%69 W · 62 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b2a…0a73backed Under | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.55 | 254 | 48.4%123 W · 131 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Over | 50c | 40.84$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.42 | 704 | 55%387 W · 317 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 61c | 39.71$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.57 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Over | 54c | 38.26$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.66 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1950…1bf4backed Over | 46c | 37.8$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.39 | 292 | 55.8%163 W · 129 L | +12.7wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed Over | 46c | 35$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 781 | 55.6%434 W · 347 L | +28.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6419…0f53backed Over | 51c | 32$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.3 | 87 | 55.2%48 W · 39 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3255…ffb9backed Under | 47c | 31.67$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.67 | 180 | 53.9%97 W · 83 L | +5.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a4c…ad2fbacked Under | 51c | 28.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.96 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Over | 51c | 25.48$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.12 | 994 | 47.3%470 W · 524 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 51c | 25.21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.86 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7b25…10aabacked Under | 53c | 24.26$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.47 | 156 | 50%78 W · 78 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05b7…c24abacked Under | 48c | 23.09$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.09 | 280 | 43.2%121 W · 159 L | -23.2wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f4…6fa9backed Under | 50c | 22.21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.11 | 1,777 | 58.4%1,037 W · 740 L | +91.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8c58…e330backed Over | 51c | 22.21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.33 | 880 | 53.8%473 W · 407 L | +41.0wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea9b…2be5backed Over | 50c | 20.4$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 54c | 20.38$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.01 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 7.5this page
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Chicago CubsMilwaukee Brewers won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 5.5Over won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 6.5Over won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 8.5Under won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-2.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-2.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-3.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-4.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Milwaukee Brewers vs. Chicago CubsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.