South American Leagues · resolved market
Will Santos FC vs. São Paulo FC end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x78ce846ea145f81f5f9ee9d885af37d11cc5315c18fac74831658e8940f3e655
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,630
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,232
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,630 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc974…b33bbacked No | 70c | 6,511$4,558 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,558 | 57 | 36.8%21 W · 36 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +49.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes | 30c | 3,459$1,031 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,428.28 | 3,407 | 51.3%1,749 W · 1,658 L | +21.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Yes | 30c | 2,639$790 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,849.11 | 1,985 | 44.8%890 W · 1,095 L | -44.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 40c | 912.61$361 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$552.03 | 8,112 | 48.7%3,951 W · 4,161 L | +27.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb207…c751backed No | 71c | 710$504 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$504.1 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.14per pick | 70cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6310…0d90backed Yes | 75c | 669$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 78cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d01…9e54backed No | 71c | 629.58$447 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$447 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf43…ae9abacked No | 71c | 600$426 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$426 | 44 | 61.4%27 W · 17 L | -3.3wins | -0.08per pick | 69cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Yes | 29c | 534.77$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$379.69 | 816 | 51.6%421 W · 395 L | +12.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Yes | 54c | 534.4$291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.78 | 1,362 | 44.9%611 W · 751 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a2…9874backed Yes | 32c | 501.56$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$341.56 | 82 | 28%23 W · 59 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -11%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 68c | 466.99$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317.56 | 2,388 | 51.8%1,237 W · 1,151 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda16…6da2backed No | 43c | 350$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.05 | 120 | 51.7%62 W · 58 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed No | 35c | 305$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 849 | 43.8%372 W · 477 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c9e…bba8backed No | 41c | 191$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.16 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Yes | 69c | 127.71$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.82 | 1,670 | 51.8%865 W · 805 L | +19.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed Yes | 48c | 119.45$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.28 | 1,444 | 56.4%815 W · 629 L | +51.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Yes | 30c | 104.6$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.65 | 1,428 | 51.8%740 W · 688 L | +22.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5eeb…01b2backed Yes | 46c | 101.44$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.3 | 495 | 35.4%175 W · 320 L | -11.9wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7503…18f3backed Yes | 21c | 96.05$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.05 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | +105.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xccc6…a5f1backed Yes | 61c | 86.97$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.02 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -2.8wins | -0.19per pick | 65cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x50fc…ba9abacked Yes | 31c | 82$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.58 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.21per pick | 57cpaid | +55.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf800…bdbabacked No | 69c | 80$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.2 | 218 | 37.6%82 W · 136 L | -12.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef45…3976backed No | 67c | 76.9$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.74 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.13per pick | 67cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6195…4213backed Yes | 31c | 70$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.69per pick | 31cpaid | +222.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30c6…db98backed Yes | 31c | 67$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.23 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.69per pick | 31cpaid | +222.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa696…21eebacked Yes | 31c | 65$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.69per pick | 31cpaid | +222.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe10b…bdc7backed Yes | 31c | 56$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.69per pick | 31cpaid | +222.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a40…0220backed Yes | 31c | 54$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.26 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.69per pick | 31cpaid | +222.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d84…21b1backed No | 70c | 53.56$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.49 | 270 | 50.7%137 W · 133 L | -11.7wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5404…5e58backed Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 138 | 39.9%55 W · 83 L | +7.3wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b89…24cabacked Yes | 31c | 50$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.49per pick | 52cpaid | +130.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked No | 69c | 49.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.74 | 163 | 47.9%78 W · 85 L | -5.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec9f…2338backed Yes | 30c | 45$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.48 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +66.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7935…fa59backed Yes | 31c | 42$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.98 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.69per pick | 31cpaid | +222.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x92df…1e90backed Yes | 31c | 34$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.46 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7257…fc40backed Yes | 32c | 33.8$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.93 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fd3…433fbacked Yes | 31c | 33$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.77 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.69per pick | 31cpaid | +222.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5cfe…ed69backed Yes | 41c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.7 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bfb…9f00backed No | 68c | 29.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 20 | 80%16 W · 4 L | +3.1wins | +0.15per pick | 65cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7bf2…6640backed No | 69c | 29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.01 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.14per pick | 59cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa029…c912backed No | 69c | 22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.18 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.18per pick | 61cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb665…95a8backed No | 69c | 21$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.49 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -3.3wins | -0.30per pick | 66cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d3…432abacked No | 71c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 28 | 71.4%20 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 66cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64c7…ffd7backed No | 78c | 19.23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Santos FC vs. São Paulo FC end in a draw?this page
- Will Santos FC win on 2026-02-04?No won
- Will São Paulo FC win on 2026-02-04?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.