South American Leagues · resolved market
Will Santos FC win on 2026-02-04?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf56cab577800ffc9c5b48f5c40550ecf2fe36b339412632c2688ea4c6a3aeb43
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $40,734
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $40,509
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,734 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 79 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfce1…9ce7backed No | 58c | 10,000$5,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,199.99 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Yes | 42c | 7,090$2,964 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,963.66 | 1,985 | 44.8%890 W · 1,095 L | -44.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked No | 58c | 6,007$3,484 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,522.96 | 165 | 43.6%72 W · 93 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 53c | 5,785$3,072 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,071.75 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes | 42c | 3,266$1,372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,372.17 | 3,405 | 51.3%1,748 W · 1,657 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8790…010bbacked No | 27c | 1,524$419 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,104.99 | 212 | 51.9%110 W · 102 L | +14.3wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed No | 59c | 1,192$703 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$488.81 | 266 | 59.8%159 W · 107 L | +12.0wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa79…f645backed Yes | 46c | 1,092$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -51%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7140…47e3backed Yes | 44c | 795.45$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed No | 56c | 763.44$425 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$338.47 | 1,362 | 44.9%611 W · 751 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 80c | 755.24$602 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.59 | 2,388 | 51.8%1,237 W · 1,151 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12b9…3ec2backed No | 30c | 689$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$482.3 | 308 | 41.2%127 W · 181 L | +9.5wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75bd…0288backed Yes | 53c | 605.02$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$322.04 | 286 | 51.7%148 W · 138 L | +14.5wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked No | 31c | 600.21$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$415.68 | 108 | 27.8%30 W · 78 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88ea…f0d2backed Yes | 21c | 540$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.4 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb023…f142backed No | 54c | 397.36$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.99 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x53ad…5bd4backed No | 30c | 394.83$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$277.86 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | +3.1wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Yes | 45c | 359.53$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.18 | 816 | 51.6%421 W · 395 L | +12.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Yes | 43c | 325$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.35 | 65 | 43.1%28 W · 37 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4300…5c69backed No | 56c | 300$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132 | 124 | 43.5%54 W · 70 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3b…6ba5backed Yes | 20c | 250$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 76 | 19.7%15 W · 61 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a9b…7303backed Yes | 42c | 238.09$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 59 | 54.2%32 W · 27 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed No | 61c | 237.62$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.68 | 1,366 | 52.4%716 W · 650 L | +51.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Yes | 42c | 222.61$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.5 | 1,428 | 51.8%740 W · 688 L | +22.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed No | 57c | 211.93$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.13 | 517 | 49.9%258 W · 259 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x466f…bb3bbacked Yes | 24c | 210$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 103 | 26.2%27 W · 76 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed No | 50c | 204.82$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.26 | 849 | 43.8%372 W · 477 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff67…a1c9backed No | 57c | 200.23$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.12 | 56 | 48.2%27 W · 29 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe03d…4dfbbacked Yes | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 76c | 190.65$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.19 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec06…9d24backed No | 59c | 187.68$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.95 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a5…e95dbacked No | 59c | 170.36$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.36 | 116 | 57.8%67 W · 49 L | +6.9wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb06…4ababacked No | 58c | 125.86$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.86 | 40 | 55%22 W · 18 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c9e…bba8backed Yes | 47c | 125$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.52 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3fbc…9cf6backed Yes | 42c | 119.05$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -29%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf800…bdbabacked Yes | 41c | 110$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.1 | 218 | 37.6%82 W · 136 L | -12.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5eeb…01b2backed No | 57c | 107.96$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.93 | 495 | 35.4%175 W · 320 L | -11.9wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Yes | 55c | 102.02$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.75 | 1,091 | 55.6%607 W · 484 L | -19.8wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x588b…8593backed Yes | 20c | 101.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 118 | 19.5%23 W · 95 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 493 | 41%202 W · 291 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…bcb3backed Yes | 42c | 95.24$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8996…15efbacked Yes | 12c | 87$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 85 | 37.6%32 W · 53 L | -5.9wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e52…9078backed Yes | 33c | 84.2$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.75 | 122 | 39.3%48 W · 74 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7503…18f3backed Yes | 75c | 80$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | +105.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Yes | 30c | 79.6$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.19 | 1,668 | 51.7%863 W · 805 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd8…5cdbbacked Yes | 45c | 77.61$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.92 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda16…6da2backed Yes | 40c | 76$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.17 | 120 | 51.7%62 W · 58 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x25c0…c187backed Yes | 42c | 71.12$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.87 | 34 | 70.6%24 W · 10 L | +5.6wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8007…4245backed No | 57c | 70.18$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.18 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a88…1c85backed Yes | 45c | 66$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe800…a783backed Yes | 44c | 63$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb0f…4ceabacked Yes | 45c | 60$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b89…99e2backed Yes | 42c | 55.03$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.22 | 209 | 53.1%111 W · 98 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x948a…4dd8backed Yes | 45c | 55$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56e6…45e9backed No | 58c | 53.61$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.52 | 73 | 52.1%38 W · 35 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed No | 27c | 50.56$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.91 | 817 | 40.8%333 W · 484 L | +20.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked No | 55c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 179 | 50.8%91 W · 88 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6eeb…3043backed Yes | 45c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2f9…0cb9backed Yes | 44c | 49$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee07…3573backed Yes | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +75%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa675…ad46backed Yes | 45c | 44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d7f…86d2backed No | 43c | 40$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.89 | 267 | 45.3%121 W · 146 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5bd…e598backed Yes | 45c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed No | 31c | 40$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.7 | 992 | 59.1%586 W · 406 L | +108.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x94bc…5b27backed Yes | 44c | 38$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.72 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 46c | 37.76$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.54 | 88 | 29.5%26 W · 62 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f98…0073backed No | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +73.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc492…8e72backed Yes | 45c | 35$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd66c…19aabacked Yes | 45c | 31$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5be1…2b7ebacked Yes | 45c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f9a…f2a8backed Yes | 48c | 29.17$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.12per pick | 30cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3cf8…8aacbacked Yes | 44c | 28$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +19%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa188…3aa8backed Yes | 45c | 26.78$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xccc6…a5f1backed Yes | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -2.8wins | -0.19per pick | 65cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x46de…5b2dbacked Yes | 45c | 26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cf4…d80abacked Yes | 45c | 23$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 63c | 21.75$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.02 | 1,444 | 56.4%815 W · 629 L | +51.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 57c | 20.31$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.73 | 212 | 66.5%141 W · 71 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5acf…0df2backed No | 79c | 18.98$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.99 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +23%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Santos FC win on 2026-02-04?this page
- Will Santos FC vs. São Paulo FC end in a draw?Yes won
- Will São Paulo FC win on 2026-02-04?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.