MLB · resolved market
Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x78d93f04736277b2e5fee84aecdea0b4d064cd6cb00f8c989a8c5502a41c92cc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Atlanta Bravesof Baltimore Orioles, Atlanta Braves
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,158
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,269
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,158 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Baltimore Orioles | 48c | 2,626$1,250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,250.06 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Atlanta Braves | 52c | 2,621$1,355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,265.91 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Baltimore Orioles | 40c | 2,100$841 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$841.09 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Atlanta Braves | 60c | 2,046$1,228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$818.38 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Baltimore Orioles | 19c | 1,212$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.78 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9905…add3backed Atlanta Braves | 69c | 434.86$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.86 | 103 | 51.5%53 W · 50 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b8d…bb92backed Baltimore Orioles | 34c | 300$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 586 | 52.7%309 W · 277 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Atlanta Braves | 65c | 162.56$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.7 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Atlanta Braves | 63c | 152.22$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.32 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Atlanta Braves | 59c | 135.59$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.59 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Atlanta Braves | 51c | 129.32$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.8 | 733 | 55.3%405 W · 328 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Baltimore Orioles | 41c | 115.98$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.55 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4193…4853backed Baltimore Orioles | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 846 | 51.5%436 W · 410 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd325…8c5fbacked Atlanta Braves | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 252 | 60.3%152 W · 100 L | +16.6wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xecae…c544backed Baltimore Orioles | 55c | 73.73$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.8 | 554 | 48.2%267 W · 287 L | -7.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a3…d760backed Baltimore Orioles | 34c | 71.13$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 244 | 44.7%109 W · 135 L | +7.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Atlanta Braves | 60c | 59.99$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c31…5380backed Atlanta Braves | 67c | 57.15$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.96 | 52 | 50%26 W · 26 L | -3.4wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Baltimore Orioles | 37c | 49.19$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x985c…e5d2backed Baltimore Orioles | 35c | 42.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 544 | 55.1%300 W · 244 L | +13.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5998…b5a8backed Atlanta Braves | 55c | 36.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.55 | 64 | 51.6%33 W · 31 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Atlanta Braves | 60c | 23$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.14 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Atlanta Braves | 62c | 19.05$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.24 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf766…9251backed Atlanta Braves | 66c | 15.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.27 | 1,464 | 63.5%929 W · 535 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5)this page
- Atlanta Braves vs. Baltimore OriolesBaltimore Orioles won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 10.5Under won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 5.5Under won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 6.5Under won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 8.5Under won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-2.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-2.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Atlanta Braves vs. Baltimore OriolesNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.