MLB · resolved market
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Atlanta Braves vs. Baltimore Orioles
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3f48ce917429746b0a400c1aa1c4c8c3bad7fe24f854fbaabbfe6a29578b7faa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,164
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,545
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,164 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5ad4…6866backed No | 50c | 6,700$3,368 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,332.28 | 158 | 49.4%78 W · 80 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Yes | 51c | 2,158$1,101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,100.7 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…8ed9backed Yes | 50c | 1,000$495 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$495 | 326 | 52.5%171 W · 155 L | +15.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Yes | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Yes | 50c | 874.18$435 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$434.9 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc249…8a61backed Yes | 47c | 600$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282 | 613 | 52.5%322 W · 291 L | +29.6wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Yes | 49c | 600$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294 | 486 | 53.7%261 W · 225 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0160…c757backed Yes | 2c | 550$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 53 | 3.8%2 W · 51 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x767a…8ac5backed No | 49c | 400$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204 | 346 | 50.9%176 W · 170 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57cc…0fa7backed Yes | 50c | 367.85$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.92 | 224 | 48.7%109 W · 115 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Yes | 51c | 117$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.67 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3603…22edbacked Yes | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 518 | 49.4%256 W · 262 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Yes | 42c | 63$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.44 | 1,814 | 49.1%891 W · 923 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.2 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,292 | 50.2%648 W · 644 L | +18.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c31…5380backed Yes | 53c | 44.83$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.76 | 52 | 50%26 W · 26 L | -3.4wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Atlanta Braves vs. Baltimore Oriolesthis page
- Atlanta Braves vs. Baltimore OriolesBaltimore Orioles won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 10.5Under won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 5.5Under won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 6.5Under won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 8.5Under won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-2.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-2.5)Atlanta Braves won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.